As title.

 

Doing a PHD on this, so, of couse - had to dump $240 or close enough to open 120 crates for Science [and 120 more on separate accounts to test the "buff" claim]. The moxy title "Open more and get an increased chance at platinums!" comes to mind.

 

There were (*drum roll*) six (6) platinum items. That's a 1.25% hit chance. Which, strangely enough, is less than all Legal Laws require for gambling . All opened sequentially. None were companions, rare sets or sets that have been on the sales front end for the last six months [we have to check these things] - I'm also pretty sure that all the top end #cost items aren't in the boxes, but hey, and none were anything current.

 

This breaks several Laws in a couple of Countries on loot box distribution. You might want to look them up. i.e. You cannot advertise a "larger return on a larger gamble" and ... not actually do it. Six platinums in 120 boxes (480 items) is... breaking the rules. It's a lower percentage return than even Casinos get away with.

 

We did not see a difference in drop rates from opening 120 crates sequentially or 120 crates on 4 different characters, thus we doubt the entire "Platinum buff" claim. i.e. Breaking the Law (and advertising Gambling, but hey, those are separate penalties).

 

This will get you a RICO / gambling Law suit in like 10 countries.

 

 

For the record: We're not surprised, we're just like: disappointed.

 

I'll make this clear: Lootboxes are gambling. Having a 1.25% hit rate on a $120 bet is illegal. Especially if you advertise that that "luck chance" goes up when opening boxes and it does not.

 

~

 

You're breaking the Law (in multiple Countries) and it's just sad.

 

p.s.

 

Happy to show you where the Law is being broken if you flame me with a [i am in Country X] tab. This is flat out illegal and rude in multiple countries that SWOTOR is sold in. And you can bring a class Law suit and win.

Edited September 25, 2022 by CatrinTheWonk

For the kids out there:

 

The Casino (EA / Bioware in this case) already "stack the deck" by making arbitrary distinctions between item classes. Is a "platinum item" any different from a "gold" or "bronze" item? Of course not, they're all in the same database and all use the same assets, take the same effort and have no distinction in form other than artificial rarity produced by the company.

 

What the company has done here is, essentially: rip off all those buying "hyper crates" or "cartel crates" for the last ten years. Deliberately and fully intentionally.

 

1.25% return is illegal, flat out, especially if you advertise that this rate will increase if you open more crates seqentially [this breaks two rules: 1) odds requirements on bets and 2) artifical incentives to increase stake gambling where no such recourse exists)

 

It's also really illegal.

 

 

And you muppets put up with it for ten years.

Edited September 25, 2022 by CatrinTheWonk

Interestingly enough, I wanted to do a test once (awhile ago) during a time that PTS was up.

 

I bought a hypercrate and then copied the toon, with the hypercrate in the inventory, to open up in both places.

I wanted to see if I'd get the same items. If the items were "generated" and "assigned" to the hypercrate's contents, or if it was really random when the boxes were opened and you got your items.

 

I got different items on PTS than I did on the live server.

Interestingly enough, I wanted to do a test once (awhile ago) during a time that PTS was up.

 

I bought a hypercrate and then copied the toon, with the hypercrate in the inventory, to open up in both places.

I wanted to see if I'd get the same items. If the items were "generated" and "assigned" to the hypercrate's contents, or if it was really random when the boxes were opened and you got your items.

 

I got different items on PTS than I did on the live server.

 

 

The items do not matter.

 

What matters is the <subtype> generation. All items are listed by rarity. In this case, if you got six identical "platinums" it would not matter because we're interested in the class / <subtype> tables and the percentage spread on generation. Rolls on these tables can be weighted and can be *really unfair* because that's a different set of rules.

 

So, if EA / Bioware were actually playing by the Legal Law, they'd have X% of platinum wins: legally they could cheat this by making 90% of all platinum wins be X item > this is a different argument and legally separate.

 

 

1.25% return on bets is breaking the Law. And yes, I did just spend >$200 testing this. And no, it's not like a lottery ticket. Look it up: gambling with 100% returns (which this is) has a different rule book than the Lottery.

 

~

 

 

And we really did test this.

 

60 / 60 crates: 3/3 spread.

 

120 on single char: 6.

 

Etc.

 

 

It's a scam.

Edited September 25, 2022 by CatrinTheWonk

While I applaud your efforts to raise awareness of the issue, there are several problems with your analysis, both legally and methodologically.

 

1. Outside of Belgium and Netherlands, the vast majority of laws on this issue are riddled with loopholes. Most of the laws (more often guidelines) just say the company should tell people the odds, but the language is vague, particularly when it comes to degree of specificity and manner of disclosure. Even Netherlands has exemptions related to lack of mandatory participation.

 

2. Not sure where you got the idea that a 1.25% threshold is automatically too low. Comparisons to regular gambling don't apply. The reason is that at a regular casino, say in Las Vegas or Monte Carlo, when you put the coin in the slot machine and lose or bet on the wrong number in roulette, the money is completely gone. In PC / video games, most regulations have ruled that while you got stuck with sucky items, you can still sell those for value for in-game currency or barter trade. In other words, the items you got still have value unlike losing cash. This says nothing too about the ironclad intellectual property claim EA/Bioware has over virtual items.

 

3. Methodologically, your sample size is way too small with only 240 crates. Even with the "pity system" Bioware put in place a couple years back, I am not aware of any hard numbers they have provided with respect to how that works. More broadly, for any non-individual legal action (i.e., a class action lawsuit), you would need to get thousands of other players to replicate and record those findings in a way that is admissable in a court of law as evidence. Good luck resolving that collective action problem.

 

4. Your RICO violation claim is a real, real stretch given how the law has been applied in the USA, which essentially requires the entity or individual to be operating as a criminal enterprise. Personally, I think any claim of a RICO-type violation would be instantly dismissed by any respectable court in any country in the world given the loopholes that exist in even the most restrictive of nations.

 

I know I'm sounding harsh, but there is a reason there has been no succesful legal action against a major company regardling loot boxes. Ever. The most recent case against EA and FIFA lootboxes wasn't just dismissed by the court in the USA earlier this year, the plaintiffs actually withdrew their complaint because it was so weak. The Netherlands also dismissed the fine against EA earlier this year. A scathing report just came out in Belgium saying its restrictions were being almost completely ignored.

 

To date only California and Washington in the USA have very weak regulations and guidelines. Three major cases have been tried in those jurisdictions within the past two years. All failed. Moreover, every attempt to raise this issue at the federal level in the USA hasn't even gotten out of Congressional Committees.

 

I'm aware the USA isn't the world, but see points above regarding other countries. At at some point the onus is on you to affirmatively prove which laws are being violated in whichever country you see fit. You have a decent case for Belgium, less so Netherlands, but globally speaking your case is very weak.

 

A far better course of action is to raise social pressure on companies and discuss the potential for harm to minors and non-transparency about the odds; i.e., being deceptive. Pushing for maximum spending limits is a good idea too, something SWTOR has already implemented.

 

 

Dasty

Edited September 29, 2022 by Jdast

As title.

 

Doing a PHD on this, so, of couse - had to dump $240 or close enough to open 120 crates for Science [and 120 more on separate accounts to test the "buff" claim]. The moxy title "Open more and get an increased chance at platinums!" comes to mind.

 

There were (*drum roll*) six (6) platinum items. That's a 1.25% hit chance. Which, strangely enough, is less than all Legal Laws require for gambling . All opened sequentially. None were companions, rare sets or sets that have been on the sales front end for the last six months [we have to check these things] - I'm also pretty sure that all the top end #cost items aren't in the boxes, but hey, and none were anything current.

 

This breaks several Laws in a couple of Countries on loot box distribution. You might want to look them up. i.e. You cannot advertise a "larger return on a larger gamble" and ... not actually do it. Six platinums in 120 boxes (480 items) is... breaking the rules. It's a lower percentage return than even Casinos get away with.

 

We did not see a difference in drop rates from opening 120 crates sequentially or 120 crates on 4 different characters, thus we doubt the entire "Platinum buff" claim. i.e. Breaking the Law (and advertising Gambling, but hey, those are separate penalties).

 

This will get you a RICO / gambling Law suit in like 10 countries.

 

 

For the record: We're not surprised, we're just like: disappointed.

 

I'll make this clear: Lootboxes are gambling. Having a 1.25% hit rate on a $120 bet is illegal. Especially if you advertise that that "luck chance" goes up when opening boxes and it does not.

 

~

 

You're breaking the Law (in multiple Countries) and it's just sad.

 

p.s.

 

Happy to show you where the Law is being broken if you flame me with a [i am in Country X] tab. This is flat out illegal and rude in multiple countries that SWOTOR is sold in. And you can bring a class Law suit and win.

 

When it comes to the hypercrates,and the packs they come with, i look at and treat them the exact same way i would if i was buying a box of TCG packs, like yu-gi-oh or pokemon etc

How did you get 1.25%? You opened 240 crates and got 6 platinums. 6/240 = 0.025 or 2.5%. That's double what you put down. This doesn't mean bad luck protection doesn't exist. Your data shows it's around 1 in 40 crates. It could be 0.1% (1 out of 1000) per crate but increases by 2.5% each time you don't get one, reaching 100% at the 40th crate. Then it resets back to 0.1%. This is just one possible example. There are infinite combinations of two numbers that would show increasing odds.

 

Anyways, I don't know what countries you are referring to, but in the US, you have to get something back worth real money for it to be considered gambling. This is what makes EA/Bioware immune because all virtual goods in SWTOR have no real money value. The terms of service specifically state that all in-game (or virtual) items have no real money value, and they also provide no mechanism for selling in-game items for real money. Some courts have ruled that in-game items do have a kind of intangible value. This ruling can affect other kinds of lawsuits, but as far as gambling laws, a chance to get real money back is required.

someone can only get cosmetics, and nobody owns anything in this game. There aren't bad odds, since odds already imply someone can win, but nobody can.

How did you get 1.25%? You opened 240 crates and got 6 platinums. 6/240 = 0.025 or 2.5%.

Actually, OP said six platinums for one batch of 120 crates, that is 6/120 = 0.05 == 5%.

 

That is, five percent of draws gave a platinum item.

 

Regarding sample sizes: the sample error calculator at https://www.sphanalytics.com/sample-error-calculator/ shows that (assuming the "population" of all draws is 10 000 packs(1)), a sample of 120 draws at a 95% confidence level yields a "margin of error" of 3.9%. (That is, there is a 95% chance that the true figure is within 3.9 percentage points of 5%.)

 

[i am in France]

 

(1) Increasing above 10K has little effect, and decreasing to 5K lowers the margin to 3.4%.

120 cartel packs is only 3 hypercrates. You need a larger sample to determine the odds considering the massive pool of thousands of items it draws from. Decorations, armor, weapons, mounts, emotes, pets, crystals, titles, tunings, flairs, toys, companions.

 

And not all categories even have platinum items, all flairs are gold, I can't think of any platinum decorations, pets, emotes, and there are only 4 platinum crystals. Considering the amount of non platinum items in the pool, six platinum items out of 120 pulls seems better than it should. That is 2 platinum items per hypercrate.

 

This is not to say opening hypercrates is worth the gamble. I personally don't see the benefit of gambling even if 2 platinum items per hypercrate was a guarantee considering that platinum does not guarantee value.

Edited September 25, 2022 by illgot

And yes, I did just spend >$200 testing this.

Congratulations, you just exposed your level of privilege.

As title.

 

Doing a PHD on this, so, of couse - had to dump $240 or close enough to open 120 crates for Science [and 120 more on separate accounts to test the "buff" claim]. The moxy title "Open more and get an increased chance at platinums!" comes to mind.

 

There were (*drum roll*) six (6) platinum items. That's a 1.25% hit chance. Which, strangely enough, is less than all Legal Laws require for gambling . All opened sequentially. None were companions, rare sets or sets that have been on the sales front end for the last six months [we have to check these things] - I'm also pretty sure that all the top end #cost items aren't in the boxes, but hey, and none were anything current.

 

This breaks several Laws in a couple of Countries on loot box distribution. You might want to look them up. i.e. You cannot advertise a "larger return on a larger gamble" and ... not actually do it. Six platinums in 120 boxes (480 items) is... breaking the rules. It's a lower percentage return than even Casinos get away with.

 

We did not see a difference in drop rates from opening 120 crates sequentially or 120 crates on 4 different characters, thus we doubt the entire "Platinum buff" claim. i.e. Breaking the Law (and advertising Gambling, but hey, those are separate penalties).

 

This will get you a RICO / gambling Law suit in like 10 countries.

 

 

For the record: We're not surprised, we're just like: disappointed.

 

I'll make this clear: Lootboxes are gambling. Having a 1.25% hit rate on a $120 bet is illegal. Especially if you advertise that that "luck chance" goes up when opening boxes and it does not.

 

~

 

You're breaking the Law (in multiple Countries) and it's just sad.

 

p.s.

 

Happy to show you where the Law is being broken if you flame me with a [i am in Country X] tab. This is flat out illegal and rude in multiple countries that SWOTOR is sold in. And you can bring a class Law suit and win.

 

I don't buy crates anymore. If I can't see it and know what I am getting beforehand, I won't buy it.

Dear Jackie Ko,

 

Will you weigh in on your business ethics?

 

Sincerely,

 

The monetized

As title.

 

Doing a PHD on this, so, of couse - had to dump $240 or close enough to open 120 crates for Science [and 120 more on separate accounts to test the "buff" claim]. The moxy title "Open more and get an increased chance at platinums!" comes to mind.

 

 

Getting a PHD... You clearly do not even have a fundamental grasp on threats to validity or statistics for one. Not to mention you did not spell 'course' correctly... Dubious to say the least. We will not even get into the other issues present with your... "rant"?

Well... this went well.

 

 

Here's a little bit of math: 120 crates is 480 items. If 6 items from 480 are platinum... that's a 1.25% hit rate.

 

One box = 4 items.

 

120 boxes = 480 items

 

480 items with 6 platinum items = 1.25% chance.

 

Open up a calculator: 6 / 480 x 100 = 1.25. That's how this works.

 

 

 

The fact that all of you couldn't work this out says a lot about how weighted your responses will be. It's gonna be a footnote. A footnote pointing out that those gambling on said lootboxes do not even understand the odds when they buy them.

 

~

 

 

Which is the point. They're selling this trash to people who cannot even do the basic math.

 

 

Oh and points:

 

1) Statistical distribution is bounded by # class items. We were getting multiple repeat results [this means duplicate items, edit] within the test and the item class range (especially since a lot of cartel items actually do not appear to be in these packs) isn't huge. It's in the realms of 1'000s not millions, which is where statistics usually gets into issues. Tell me you do not know anything about this if you conflate a tiny little MMO loot table with say, 320,000,000 people in the USA

 

2) It's just wrong: they don't advertise the loot rates and drumroll: the advertised increase in platinum drops does not exist. << this is the bit a lot of Countries have rules against

 

3) Absolutely none of the replies are from adults with experience with this, so hey.

Edited September 26, 2022 by CatrinTheWonk

Congratulations, you just exposed your level of privilege.

 

Well. Here's the thing.

 

By your reckoning, there's no diffrence between 1.25% and 5%. Now do that for $200. Or $2000. Or $600,000,000.

It very quickly adds up.

 

~

 

For the record: we dumped this amount to test a thesis (and science demands we use the same methods as you all do, no cutting corners and asking for free loot boxes to stream with here).

 

In other news: $600,000,000 is also a number on a project I have worked on. 1.25% in that case is.. well. 5% is $30 million dollars. 1.25% is 7.5 million dollars. There's a difference.

 

 

 

Bit out of your pay grade though*.

 

 

 

In case this isn't obvious enough, reverse the figures and make them revenue streams for selling loot boxes. With a 1.25% purple rate you make X, with a 5% chance you make X-Y. You know, the difference between $30,000,000 and $7,500,000. Just think a bit on it.

Edited September 26, 2022 by CatrinTheWonk

Bit out of your pay grade though.

 

You keep trying to win the argument by bragging about your (incomplete) academic credentials, calling us children, using the above quote, talking about a grant you received, etc., as opposed to actually validating your arguments. I could play the same game and whip out my curriculum vitae, but I don't feel the need to impress forum-goers with my degrees or insulting the intelligence of others. I'll let forum-goers decide for themselves who has provided the more sophisticated level of analysis.

 

Your statistical analysis is unsound (or at least unclear given the horrid wording in your OP) and you are most certainly wrong on the law. To your credit you at least didn't try to refute my points regarding that issue.

 

This doesn't even get into the morality of your argument. I strongly support efforts for gaming companies to self-regulate, particularly when it comes to limiting purchases (which SWTOR does) and providing greater transparency on odds. Philosophically and morally, however, if some blithering idiot wants to spend their money on a chance to get a pixelated cosmetic item, which I firmly believe helps keep this game afloat, I strongly support their right to do so. The vast majority of countries agree. Even in Belgium, the consumer has spoken since they are circumventing the ban to a tune of 82 percent.

 

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/study-finds-that-belgiums-loot-box-ban-isnt-being-enforced

 

 

Dasty

 

P.S. Before you accuse me of personal animus toward you, I hope you recall I was your most vehement defender on Anti-Semitism about two months ago.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Jdast

Snip

 

You're wrong about the Legal aspect: https://gameslaw.org/new-regulation-for-loot-boxes-in-china-international-impact-for-all-online-games

 

1.25% is... gacha game realms of chances, especially if we assume the "magical" "Increased chance at platinums" was triggered in our 120 box reveal.

 

The simple point is that China is regulating this far more than USA has bothered to do, and...

You might want to look up what % of all western Publishing houses Tencent now owns (it's close to 10-40% for *all* western publishing houses now, barring the big three).

 

 

P.S. Before you accuse me of personal animus toward you, I hope you recall I was your most vehement defender on Anti-Semitism about two months ago.

 

You can be an ethically mature and righteous person and still be wrong about this topic. Although, noted, we didn't forget.

 

 

~

 

Translated: there is no official disclosure of Loot Box %chances. This is illegal in a few countries (not Belgium you oik). SWOTOR is sold in these countries.

 

1.25% breaks gacha gambling Laws.

 

QED.

 

 

** c.f "Saudi Arabia's $400 Billion Wealth Fund Invests In EA, Activision Blizzard, And Take-Two"

 

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/saudi-arabias-400-billion-wealth-fund-invests-in-ea-activision-blizzard-and-take-two/1100-6487651/

 

 

~

 

 

But yes, there are specific legal Laws against non-disclosed %drop rates, especially if you advertise (ingame or out) that buying more of them will increase your chances and they do not. < This is the important bit. SWOTOR specifically has even an ingame loading screen telling you that "the more you open, the better your chances get at gaining..." said items.

 

If this is 1.01% > 1.25% then they're breaking all kinds of rules. Laws, even. And not just in Belgium.

 

 

For instance: https://www.asa.org.uk/type/non_broadcast/code_section/03.html

 

Section 3.11, 3.14

 

3.14 states: "Marketing communications must not claim that products can facilitate winning in games of chance."

 

Both are breached by the splash screens ingame. i.e. by advertising (falsely we think) that buying said products increases your chance of winning (getting increased %chance of rares / pack opened) ... fairly clear breach of UK Law.

 

 

We can do this... for all EU countries.

Edited September 26, 2022 by CatrinTheWonk

no they aren't breaking laws, with gambling you own the money you get back, in MMORPGs you don't. You have no rights, except playtime refunds, if you buy CCs you just gave them the money and they let you play with their stuff.

 

the math is 5.75 for me, you should've used the waves

 

its also not predatory

 

you could've just said you don't like boxes

 

On a personal note, stake>investing>crypto>loot boxes - yes I'm serious

2 thoughts:

 

Dasty has a point: you get content/items out of EVERY box - as opposed to getting nothing for the coin you use in a casino slot machine

 

it is actually not 480 but 360 items = 6/360 = 1.7%

(one of the 4 items per box is always a companion gift/jawa scrap/cartel certificate)

Edited September 26, 2022 by Dekibra

I'm pretty sure EA has lawyers to make sure their loot boxes fit the current laws.

 

But it does suck to open 30x cartel packs in a row but get 0 platinum item, there should be a guarantee for that since that's the number of packs in a hypercrate.

I'm pretty sure EA has lawyers to make sure their loot boxes fit the current laws.

 

But it does suck to open 30x cartel packs in a row but get 0 platinum item, there should be a guarantee for that since that's the number of packs in a hypercrate.

Back in the day, in the last named series before the launch of the "Ultimate" pack:

* There were no platinum items. Any item they'd assign as platinum rarity today was just gold rarity.

* They added an extra pack in each Hypercrate, called a Platinum Pack. There was one per crate, and it dropped a single gold-rarity item.

 

Immediately after they did this, there was a spasm on the forums of people complaining that their Platinum Pack didn't drop the gold item they wanted.

For the kids out there:

And you muppets put up with it for ten years.

3) Absolutely none of the replies are from adults with experience with this, so hey.

Which is the point. They're selling this trash to people who cannot even do the basic math.

This is illegal in a few countries (not Belgium you oik).

If you want *anyone* to take you seriously, you need to put some effort into not insulting everyone right left and centre.

The truly unethical thing is cost concealment.

 

EA knows, with great precision, how many purchases it will take to obtain any given item.

 

They won't tell us.

Back in the day, in the last named series before the launch of the "Ultimate" pack:

* There were no platinum items. Any item they'd assign as platinum rarity today was just gold rarity.

* They added an extra pack in each Hypercrate, called a Platinum Pack. There was one per crate, and it dropped a single gold-rarity item.

 

Immediately after they did this, there was a spasm on the forums of people complaining that their Platinum Pack didn't drop the gold item they wanted.

 

"People are never satisfied"

 

But I get how those people feel because I also feel like **** when my 1 platinum item turns out to be a mount that you can get a similar one with some credits. "Platinum" items ranged from worthless to 100B is a big issue, but since those value are decided by the market. there's really no perfect way to do it. Bottom line is, all CM items are cosmetic, so I won't complain much *shrugs*

 

OP has some serious flaw regarding their research (the sample size being too small for one), but I do tend to agree that SWTOR could be more transparent about the percentage of getting a certain grade of item from a pool.