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6.0 Kyrprax Medpac and Med Units - Artifact Schematics via deconstruction?


Sarova

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Has anyone with Biochem actually got an upgraded schematic at artifact (purple level) for biochem kyrprax (6.0) medpacs and med units via deconstruction? The 10% chance seems far too low against the high cost to make amount of med units/medpacs needed to deconstruct. I only use Med Units on my characters as they heal companions as well and I'm after the upgraded (6.0) version. I've not seen any for sale (on Darth Malgus) so I'm assuming no-one has the schematic yet? Is this likely to be looked at in the big upcoming crafting patch?
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Has anyone with Biochem actually got an upgraded schematic at artifact (purple level) for biochem kyrprax (6.0) medpacs and med units via deconstruction? The 10% chance seems far too low against the high cost to make amount of med units/medpacs needed to deconstruct.

 

Sure they have, I bought one.

 

And it's not 10% its 5% for final tier.

 

So 5% x 30 tries would give you a 78.54% chance of learning it which is a 21.46% chance of still nothing.

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Gyromaniac, that's not how chance works. 5% chance is 5% every time. Not stacked by the number of tries. Statistics. If you buy 10 lottery tickets with a 1 in 500 million chance, you are not getting 5 in a 5 hundred million chances. You are getting 5 tries at 1 in 500 million. Much lower rate. There is no compensation for number of tries

 

yes, I personally know people who have achieved the Gold, reusable medpacs. I am stuck at purple an d tossing a lot of mats out to try for the gold.

 

Purple ones are good. Gold is the goal. Success is ... fleeting

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[...]. If you buy 10 lottery tickets with a 1 in 500 million chance, you are not getting 5 in a 5 hundred million chances. [...]

bad example, because actually you do get the 5 in 500 mil chance (since you're covered 5 unique possibilities... assuming you didn't pick the same numbers 5 times (because it's a single roll against 5 chances, not 5 rolls against 1 chance each)

 

people really misunderstand how flat odds works, but actually the simple intuition is correct... an X% chance does mean that, on average, it takes (100 / X) tries... the problem comes from the fact that lower X is the bigger the number of tries you need to get that average....

 

you can think of it more simply as a tray with 100 slots for 100 marbles.... if you only have 1 marble (chance) there's lots of places it can go, and so it feels a lot more random how often it "hits" the spots you want. but if you have a bunch of marble (chances), the "hits" will be pretty evenly spread out over the tries and it feels more regular. as a general rule, the lower the odds, the more random it will behave, and the more tries it takes to get a true average. reverse it for high odds. It tends to match short terms expectations at around 50%

 

a fun way to hack your perceptions is to always look at the higher odds side... 5% success = 95% failure... so if you are are expecting 95% failure, you are less surprised by the randomness of lower odds.

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Can you only learn the schematic off what YOU create? I bought a couple to add to my stack, but it said "No upgrades avaiilable" when I did that, and even splitting the stack after adding the two didn't give me any stacks that had an upgrade available. I don't have the new schematic either.....for the mebpac..... just starting in on the stims...
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I knew i could only learn schematics for my skills. What I was meaning was, can I only learn schematics from the items I craft personally. I bought 2 Medpacs to make a stack of 60, and my entire stack ended up showing "No research available". Even after separating out the stack, it stayed that way. I put that stack in the vault, and the next stack I crafted I could try to research with again.
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the poisioning of the stack is probably a bug, but yes that's what Iwas saying, only items you craft can be learned from, not items crafted by others....

 

that was a measure to prevent people that hadn't done the base work for learning a schematic from getting it easier by learning from someone elses... not sure I agree with the game logic on that, but it is what it is.

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I knew i could only learn schematics for my skills. What I was meaning was, can I only learn schematics from the items I craft personally. I bought 2 Medpacs to make a stack of 60, and my entire stack ended up showing "No research available". Even after separating out the stack, it stayed that way. I put that stack in the vault, and the next stack I crafted I could try to research with again.

 

Craft a new one and add it to the stack and it will allow you to RE for MK parts, which should also allow you to RE for a chance at schematic.

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  • 3 months later...

(Sorry for the necroism.)

Gyromaniac, that's not how chance works. 5% chance is 5% every time. Not stacked by the number of tries. Statistics

Actually, Gyromaniac is correct. To fail to have one after 30 tries, at 5% success = 95% failure, you must fail all 30 times, and the probability of that is (0.95) multiplied together 30 times (that is, 30 lots of 0.95 multiplied together, so 29 multiplications), which is 0.2146 (etc.) which is 21.46% chance of the accumulated failure.

 

The 30th try, however, is still 5% *that*time*.

 

((Why is it like that?))

The individual attempts are what's called "independent trials with replacement", meaning that no one trial affects the outcome of the next one, and nor is it affected by the previous one ("independent"), while the "with replacement" is more applicable to e.g. drawing cards from a deck where you do or do not put the card you drew back for the next draw. To finish the sequence with no success, you must fail *all* of them. The analysis works like this:

 

* Fail once = 95% chance.

* Fail twice = 95% chance *if and only if* you already failed once = (95% of 95%) chance from the beginning.

* Fail thrice = 95% chance if and only if you already failed twice = (95% of 95% of 95%) from the beginning.

...

* Fail 30 times = 95% chance if and only if you already failed 29 times = (95% of ... of 95%) from the beginning.

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  • 2 months later...
Probably should have mentioned that calculation (95% ^ Attempts) only works for dominant odds over 50%, otherwise you have to calculate it as (1000% - [100% - non_dominant] ^ Attempts) which isn't very intuitive, but does give the right answer.

I could only assume you actually meant 100% - [100% - non_dominant] ^ Attempts for success rate which is not only very intuitive, it's literally the same formula being used above. Get rid of the "dominant" and "non-dominant" notion altogether, it makes no difference at all because the calculation here is:

1) Find the probability of independently failing every time (since we're looking for 1 success only) - that's p_failure^attempts, or (1 - "chance to research the schematic")^deconstructions

2) Find the probability of this NOT happening = 1 - probability from the previous calculation.

No matter if the success rate is 1% or 99.9% - the formula stays the same, the numbers are changing.

 

For say 30 attempts that gives:

At 95% failure chance the calculation would be 0.95^30=21.5% chance of not obtaining a single success in 30 trials

At 5% failure chance it becomes 0.05^30=9.3e-40 chance of not obtaining a single success in 30 trials which, for all practical purposes, is a given success.

 

That's just statistics 101, the part that is normally taught on like the very first lecture.

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  • 10 months later...
what does ''Reusable'' mean? i know it's a stupid question--but i'm suspicious that it's not exactly what the term implies.

 

In this case it means that the med pack, adrenal, or stim is not consumed upon use. For the case of 6.0 products, they are the Legendary quality versions that are reverse engineered from their artifact quality versions. Legendary quality items have a gold border around their icon in your inventory. Only biochemists can use the reusable unlimited Legendary versions.

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