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[Synthweaving] Savant Sash

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
[Synthweaving] Savant Sash

Girick's Avatar


Girick
08.17.2012 , 11:03 PM | #1
Is there a bug trying to reverse engineer the savant sash? It should be a 20% chance. I've tried at least 15 times and no new schematic. I haven't done the math yet, but I must be extremely unlucky or there is a bug.

Hartharia's Avatar


Hartharia
08.18.2012 , 01:54 AM | #2
You're just unlucky. I got it on the first, and that is the first time I got it on the first go it usually take me more goes.

The 20% is not not cumulative so it does not mean you have a higher chance the more you do. It is per RE, so each time you RE something you have a 20% chance of it proccing, however you also have an 80% chance of it not doing so.

Girick's Avatar


Girick
08.18.2012 , 06:57 AM | #3
Thanks for confirming that it can be found.

The probablitiy does increase though. Each time you do it the probability is 20%, but if you look at a group of attempts your probability goes up. For instance, whats the probability of getting at least one head when you flip a coin two times? Even though you have a 50% chance each time you flip, your sample set for two flips is (TT, TH, HT, HH). So to get at least one head you have a 3/4 or 75% chance. Notice that means there is a 25% chance you won't get a heads which can be gotten from doing 1/2*1/2 (the probability of each individual event).

My thoughts on the 20% in this game are that it's easier to look at what the chances are of not getting a schematic, much like in the scenerio above what are the chances of not getting a heads, which would be an 80% chance. Thus for ten tries would be a .8^10 percent chance of not getting a schematic which is about 10%. After 15 tries that drops to about a 3.5% chance you would not get a schemetic meaning there is a 96.5% chance you would have the schematic.

That's really all just a lot of information to prove that I am just that unlucky.

darkhosty's Avatar


darkhosty
12.01.2012 , 09:19 PM | #4
Dice have no memory.

ekimmak's Avatar


ekimmak
12.02.2012 , 06:09 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by Girick View Post
That's really all just a lot of information to prove that I am just that unlucky.
Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.
Best way to end Smuggler Act 1 is
Spoiler

You can't make up stuff like that.

ekimmak's Avatar


ekimmak
12.02.2012 , 06:15 PM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by Girick View Post
That's really all just a lot of information to prove that I am just that unlucky.
Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.
Best way to end Smuggler Act 1 is
Spoiler

You can't make up stuff like that.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.03.2012 , 10:56 AM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by ekimmak View Post
Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.
Or you could look at it this way...
The chance of success on any one attempt is 20%. The chance of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (80%^7). So if you manage to get a success within seven tries, consider yourself lucky because you beat the odds. One success in eight tries is even money and anything beyond that...you're unlucky, don't play the lotto
that day.

That being said, you MUST look at it from a large scale POV. Take all the REs you have ever attempted and do the math. I will bet the percentages will work out to 20% (within an appropriate margin or error). Now take ALL the REs that EVERY player has EVER done in the last year and I guarantee the percentages work out.

Zem_'s Avatar


Zem_
12.03.2012 , 01:34 PM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
Or you could look at it this way...
The chance of success on any one attempt is 20%. The chance of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (80%^7). So if you manage to get a success within seven tries, consider yourself lucky because you beat the odds. One success in eight tries is even money and anything beyond that...you're unlucky, don't play the lotto
that day.
I follow your math, but not your conclusions. How is one success in eight, "even money"? The odds of one or more success in eight trials is 1 - (0.8^8) = 83.22%. Those odds are much more than even money, are they not? i.e. I wouldn't bet money against having at least one success in eight trials. In the long term, you would lose all your money.

Grayseven's Avatar


Grayseven
12.03.2012 , 03:12 PM | #9
I'm not entirely convinced something hasn't been broken recently when it comes to REing.

I'm seeing much, much more effort being required to proc a schematic...consistently...than I've ever seen before.
Sometimes you narfle the Garthok, sometimes the Garthok narfles you.

Zem_'s Avatar


Zem_
12.03.2012 , 04:27 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by Grayseven View Post
I'm not entirely convinced something hasn't been broken recently when it comes to REing.

I'm seeing much, much more effort being required to proc a schematic...consistently...than I've ever seen before.
You really have to take a fair amount of data to prove that. Complaints about random number generators seem to dog every MMO I've played, but whenever someone actually sits down to take the required data they find that the law of large numbers does eventually prove the RNG is working.

I had one especially bad streak of luck recently. Something like 30 or more failures before finally getting the schematic. Then shortly afterward... three schematics in a row.