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Critical success rate


Triality

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I have noticed a significant decline in the number of critical slicing successes over the past two weeks so started collecting data for the community's review.

 

My personal conclusion is that critical successes are not working as intended for slicing missions (wavering on this as the sample size increases).

 

Updated: 7/27/2012

 

Total missions: 975

Critical success rate: 16.8%

Failure rate: 2.9%

 

I will continue to update this post with cumulative results; comments are encouraged. For those interested, test conditions follow…

 

 

Both characters are on the same account.

Both characters have Slicing 400.

Both characters have Legacy of Crafting III (per dev note this does not affect missions).

All companions are 10K affection.

Missions are yellow or green

 

Sliced Tech Parts missions: Mysterious Funds, Whispers on the Net, Extinguish the Sun

Lockbox Missions: Plug the Leak, The Azure Databanks

 

Level 48 Shadow

Sliced Tech Parts missions: Qyzen, Theran, Iresso

Lockbox Missions: Nadia, Zenith

 

Level 25 Commando

Sliced Tech Parts missions: Aric, Elara, M1-4X

 

Total missions: 975

Critical successes: 164

Failures: 28

 

I don't see tables available, so the data order is:

Total#, Crit#, Fail#, identifier

Crit%, Fail%

 

By Character

294 48 11 Commando

16.3% 3.7%

681 116 17 Shadow

17.0% 2.5%

 

By mission

231 36 10 Mysterious Funds

15.6% 4.3%

231 34 11 Whispers on the Net

14.7% 4.8%

231 41 4 Extinguish the Sun

17.7% 1.7%

141 27 2 The Azure Databanks (Lockbox)

19.1% 1.4%

141 26 1 Plug the Leak (Lockbox)

18.4% 0.7%

 

Edited by Triality
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I think 10% is lower than it should be, but the problem is not just the low but somewhat reasonable low chance of critting anything, but it being random in what it crits.

 

I have run 100s of missions of lvl 6 lock box mission and not gotten 1 slicing mission drop. And if you look at the prices of slicing missions its around 100k per. So the biggest cut of augments comes from the random chance of getting a slicing recipe, and the same gathering lock box missions offer other missions to well over compensate the expenses of getting that hard to get slicing mission.

 

So in swtor economics the producers of raw goods makes more profit than the producer of the final product.

 

Is that a good thing? Or just interesting that it worked out differently than expected allowing slicers to make a huge profit from the random chance of getting slicing missions and of course other craft's missions as well for their crafts or to sell them.

 

Sounds about right. I run four accounts at once, so 12 aug mat missions concurrently. I crit for purples at least once per iteration.

 

4 accounts or 4 characters?

Edited by VegaPhone
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There is a dev post that explains the numbers and how the percentages are derived. Last time I checked it, I should be around 18-20% crits.

 

That's what I was experiencing two weeks ago, but something changed.

 

Unfortunately, I have lost the post and searching has not pulled it up. From memory...

Base chance, all get this: 5%

Max affection: 10% (15% ?)

Legacy of crafting: 3%

 

There was something else, perhaps a pet bonus, but none of mine have that for slicing.

 

Regardless, it is certainly above the 12% (I got a few more crits) that I am now seeing.

 

If we could find that post we would have a reference for comparison.

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There is a dev post that explains the numbers and how the percentages are derived. Last time I checked it, I should be around 18-20% crits.

 

Difficulty: Yellow/Green/Grey = 15%

Affection 10k = 5%

Legacy Crit Crafting = 0% (does not affect missions)

 

So the base chance for everyone is 15+5+0 = 20%

 

The OP's 9.9% indeed seems a bit low. But maybe it will go up with more mission runs.

 

Edit: As pointed out below the Legacy of Crafting does not affection mission crits. So the base chance for everyone is 20%.

Edited by Rhaphael
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Legacy of Crafting doesnt have any impact on slicing missions. Legacy of crafting only effects crafting of items that can hold an augment slot (its been verified by Bioware, just search the forums), so its useless for mission skills or any craft that doesnt produce an augmentable item. The +3% included in calculations above are thus erroneous.

 

/T

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Legacy of Crafting doesnt have any impact on slicing missions. Legacy of crafting only effects crafting of items that can hold an augment slot (its been verified by Bioware, just search the forums), so its useless for mission skills or any craft that doesnt produce an augmentable item. The +3% included in calculations above are thus erroneous.

 

/T

 

That post was later corrected by Bioware. They added hte note that if an item would not hold an aug, the legacy of crafting increased the crit chance. Although they specifically called out doubles from crits (I get these often from synth and armormech made augments), nowhere did they mention slicing.

 

This was from Allison from the dev tracker...

The Legacy tooltip could be more clear - we'll look at improving it in the future. The perk itself (as noted earlier in the thread) does increase the chance of getting an augment slot on items that can have them. For items that can't, it gives you an increased chance for the effect of a critical when crafting those items (like producing an extra item).

 

Her post is here.

 

Either way, 20% is far better than I am experiencing.

Edited by Triality
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That post was later corrected by Bioware. They added hte note that if an item would not hold an aug, the legacy of crafting increased the crit chance. Although they specifically called out doubles from crits (I get these often from synth and armormech made augments), nowhere did they mention slicing.

 

This was from Allison from the dev tracker...

The Legacy tooltip could be more clear - we'll look at improving it in the future. The perk itself (as noted earlier in the thread) does increase the chance of getting an augment slot on items that can have them. For items that can't, it gives you an increased chance for the effect of a critical when crafting those items (like producing an extra item).

 

Her post is here.

 

Either way, 20% is far better than I am experiencing.

 

Its simple math for crying out loud. You need a sample size of 2000 before you get reliable information. You could get 100 fails in a row and it would still not mean you crit less than intended - the likehood isn't big. But these kind of threads are... Stupid.

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Its simple math for crying out loud. You need a sample size of 2000 before you get reliable information. You could get 100 fails in a row and it would still not mean you crit less than intended - the likehood isn't big. But these kind of threads are... Stupid.

 

Are you serious? This gentleman (or lady) went to the effort of tracking the relevant data points for a hundred tries, and you say this is a stupid idea? Admittedly, the sample size could be larger, but this is the sort of behavior that should be encouraged, not scorned. And it wasn't just him basing his findings off the data - he thought that the missions were behaving a certain way, and so he performed an experiment to confirm that with hard data.

 

I say bravo to the OP.

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Are you serious? This gentleman (or lady) went to the effort of tracking the relevant data points for a hundred tries, and you say this is a stupid idea? Admittedly, the sample size could be larger, but this is the sort of behavior that should be encouraged, not scorned. And it wasn't just him basing his findings off the data - he thought that the missions were behaving a certain way, and so he performed an experiment to confirm that with hard data.

 

I say bravo to the OP.

 

"I had only seen one white dog and three black dogs ever in my life. This made me wonder if white dogs were a rare breed. After once again going outside doing a thorough test seeing thirty black dogs and ten white dogs I can now conclude that the population of dogs is only 25% white."

 

There's a reason you have to be cautious when dealing with empirism. If you apply a small sample size anything can look possible. Again, stupid. The theory of likelihood is something we cover in our teens in my country but maybe you applaud effort even when its completely irrelevant. He could just as well have posted his opinion without including any numbers because it would be no more nor less valid than what he did now - since sample is too small.

Edited by AdamLKvist
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"I had only seen one white dog and three black dogs ever in my life. This made me wonder if white dogs were a rare breed. After once again going outside doing a thorough test seeing thirty black dogs and ten white dogs I can now conclude that the population of dogs is only 25% white."

 

There's a reason you have to be cautious when dealing with empirism. If you apply a small sample size anything can look possible. Again, stupid. The theory of likelihood is something we cover in our teens in my country but maybe you applaud effort even when its completely irrelevant. He could just as well have posted his opinion without including any numbers because it would be no more nor less valid than what he did now - since sample is too small.

 

I guess in your country everyone's so busy learning the 'theory of likelihood' that they're too busy to learn good manners. There's no need to be rude because another community member thinks an effort (whatever it may be), is praiseworthy. Why bash, when you could as easily explain?

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The original post has been updated with another set of missions, and the crit rate is tending higher at 16.6%.

 

There is still a question in my mind about the Legacy of Crafting effect on slicing missions. Since we now know the other missions ARE affected, why should slicing be excluded?

 

@Rhaphael, thanks for the correction :) I spent a bit more time looking for the post that outlined it, but was unsuccessful.

 

@evanfardreamer and Mechrophilia, thanks for the kind words.

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I guess in your country everyone's so busy learning the 'theory of likelihood' that they're too busy to learn good manners. There's no need to be rude because another community member thinks an effort (whatever it may be), is praiseworthy. Why bash, when you could as easily explain?

 

1. Woopey doo see what happens in the post above me? Bigger sample bigger crit chance. Who would've possibly thought :)

 

2. "Its simple math for crying out loud. You need a sample size of 2000 before you get reliable information. You could get 100 fails in a row and it would still not mean you crit less than intended - the likehood isn't big. But these kind of threads are... Stupid."

 

These kind of threads are too usual - sample sizes of ten and refered to as some kind of fact. Needs to stop. What I wrote above would more correctly be described as blunt rather than rude - then again the easier a person takes offence...

 

edit: The worst part isnt the OP and the critique was only half aimed at him. Its everyone in the thread enabling: surely someone should know about likelyhood in math etc.

Edited by AdamLKvist
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Credit to the original poster for taking the time to look at there own crit rating. It's always cool to get more information, can never have enough.

One tip that many people miss though is to make sure you equip your crew with the right armour/gear. If you wanted to improve your chance of critting on your main character, you would make sure your armour had lots of crit rating. But when it comes to your companions and missions most people forget.

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The original post has been updated, Of 233 missions, 15.9% were crits.

 

That is pretty close to the target 20%.

 

Thanks for running the data, it confirms slicing crits are working as intended :)

 

There is still a question in my mind about the Legacy of Crafting effect on slicing missions. Since we now know the other missions ARE affected, why should slicing be excluded?

The tooltip specifically says it only works on crafting, not missions, so if it does indeed work for some missions that would be a bug. Which mission types do you see to be affected?

Edited by Rhaphael
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I was getting many crits until yesterday. I am pushing to build augs so I am running three toons slicing missions. Two of the toons have companion affection maxed. Well yesterday moving from character to character to run slicing missions I go the big fat nada.

 

Bad string of luck?

 

Am I doing something wrong?

 

Has something changed?

 

 

I think it is a Sith conspiracy.

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I guess in your country everyone's so busy learning the 'theory of likelihood' that they're too busy to learn good manners.

 

<nods in agreement>

Edited by Yogol
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That is pretty close to the target 20%.

 

Thanks for running the data, it confirms slicing crits are working as intended :)

 

 

The tooltip specifically says it only works on crafting, not missions, so if it does indeed work for some missions that would be a bug. Which mission types do you see to be affected?

 

Yes, the tooltip kept me from buying that perk until I found that a correction is in the works. There are several dev posts on it clarifying the following:

 

Quote:

The Legacy tooltip could be more clear - we'll look at improving it in the future. The perk itself (as noted earlier in the thread) does increase the chance of getting an augment slot on items that can have them. For items that can't, it gives you an increased chance for the effect of a critical when crafting those items (like producing an extra item).

 

Crafting, not specifically slicing, though. My assumption is that slicing is included and with the sample size increasing we should see closer to what Rhaphael originally posted, 23%.

 

Her original post is here.

 

Although I 'perceive' a higher crit rate from my other crafters, I'm not collecting data on that. Any references to dev corrections would be appreciated :)

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