Alright this has gotten silly... Thats 8 skill barrels 5 might hilts 4 armorings and 6 mods reverse engineered (all 31 grade) and none of them give me a schematic? Either unlucky as hell or not really 20%... More venting of frustration here but anyone else getting this? Edited November 24, 2013 by Whiitekniight

I have a similar frustration, I've re'd 20 or so Reflex barrel 31s from the Merc Elite com offhand and still haven't gotten the schematic. At one point I even saved up 6 in my inventory (instead of doing one at a time as I got the coms) and still, obviously, nothing. At this point I've kind of given up.

Alright this has gotten silly... Thats 8 skill barrels 5 might hilts 4 armorings and 6 mods reverse engineered (all 31 grade) and none of them give me a schematic? Either unlucky as hell or not really 20%... More venting of frustration here but anyone else getting this?

 

Check the link in my sig...

Summary:

#1 - random =/= even. in RNGs clusters happen. Just because it says 20% chance does not mean 1 in 5 will be successful. Yes, over the long haul and extremely large numbers 1 in 5 will bear out, but not in your 23 total REs.

 

#2 - if you do the math, the chance of 7 failures in a row is roughly the same as one success 80%^7=20.97%

 

#3 - Your 23 total failed REs... 0.6% or 3 in 500 will experience 23 failures in a row.

 

#4 - continued failure does not reach the realm of statistical anomaly until about 50 failures in a row. 7 in 5,000 will experience 50 failures in a row.

 

Lastly, in all candor, crafting any 31s is not a good money making or saving venture: the materials often cost more than the finished product. Those who sell them are 100% dependent on crits for decent profit. Why do you think so many try to sell in general chat "free with mats"?

Understanding probability doesn't make this any less frustrating. As far as the crafting goes, the idea is to avoid paying someone else. If I can research the mainhand schematic then I can make the items I'm after for alts and companions at the cost (or half the cost if I get a critical result) of the resources vs. gtn prices.

Why do you think so many try to sell in general chat "free with mats"?

Because the market has saturated with sellers bringing down prices through competition. Back when 31 was first being RE'ed no one was selling for mats, even though the mats were more expensive than now.

There is another reason why some do the "free with mats" which is because they are not interested in making a profit out of it.

Because the market has saturated with sellers bringing down prices through competition. Back when 31 was first being RE'ed no one was selling for mats, even though the mats were more expensive than now.

Gotta disagree with you on that because the profit margins (as a function of percentage) have remained relatively constant. The materials were more expensive but so were the finished products.

There is another reason why some do the "free with mats" which is because they are not interested in making a profit out of it.

I think you will find those players in a miniscule minority. Most players work crew skills to make or save money. Whether it is "gatherers" selling materials to crafters, or crafters selling finished goods to consumers...it's about increasing one's purchasing power. Why do you think there are so many threads on these forums asking, "how can I make more money?" or "what are the best crew skills?"? Why do you think there are so many threads complaining about how, "crafting crew skill X has no money making power. change it!"?

Understanding probability doesn't make this any less frustrating. As far as the crafting goes, the idea is to avoid paying someone else. If I can research the mainhand schematic then I can make the items I'm after for alts and companions at the cost (or half the cost if I get a critical result) of the resources vs. gtn prices.

But that's just it, look at the numbers and you will find that having the schematic to make stuff for yourself is not worth the investment.

 

I said it in another thread:

As a money [] saving venture most grade 31 item modification schematics are not worth it; if you do your research you will find that [] the far more likely scenario is that the materials cost more than the finished product (based on GTM postings).

 

This means that if you are trying to find a "cheap" way to acquire an item modification for a character or companion, you are better off buying one off the GTM.

 

My advice: do not seek the opportunity to reverse engineer. If an opportunity presents itself, go for it. Otherwise don't bother.

80% chance to fail each and every time.

Gotta disagree with you on that because the profit margins (as a function of percentage) have remained relatively constant. The materials were more expensive but so were the finished products.

Yes, but why were the finished products more expensive ? It can't be based solely on the mats.

In fact when I look on the progenitor GTN, prices have fallen for certain items to a variant degree while the mats have dropped considerably.

Few month ago it used to cost around 1.2 ~1.4 mil to make an Underworld Relic and it used to sell for 2.5 mil. Now is cost around 750K to make one and the prices are still the same. But when you look at the list of sellers the list only grew by one or two newcomers.

 

Now if you look at items that can produce a copy when it crits, they were selling for the same price as relics few month ago (around 2.5 mil), and now they are selling for around 1 mil. When you look at sellers in the GTN you can immediately see that the list have at least tripled in size (specially after 2.4).

 

Profit margins % have not stayed the same, for certain items it actually went up (relics). While for certain other have dropped down (specially barrels).

Edited November 25, 2013 by znihilist

Yes, but why were the finished products more expensive ? It can't be based solely on the mats.

In fact when I look on the progenitor GTN, prices have fallen for certain items to a variant degree while the mats have dropped considerably.

Few month ago it used to cost around 1.2 ~1.4 mil to make an Underworld Relic and it used to sell for 2.5 mil. Now is cost around 750K to make one and the prices are still the same. But when you look at the list of sellers the list only grew by one or two newcomers.

 

Now if you look at items that can produce a copy when it crits, they were selling for the same price as relics few month ago (around 2.5 mil), and now they are selling for around 1 mil. When you look at sellers in the GTN you can immediately see that the list have at least tripled in size (specially after 2.4).

 

Profit margins % have not stayed the same, for certain items it actually went up (relics). While for certain other have dropped down (specially barrels).

 

You're right. Pricing is not solely based on mats. Supply and Demand also influence pricing

 

#1 with 31/72 gear now being available for elite comms, demand for crafted 31/72 item modifications is down

#2 time and the above has allowed more individuals to obtain schematics, supply of crafted 31s is up

#3 both of the above have lead to more characters being full 72 meaning that the content that drops that level of gear is easier and more individuals are inclined to participate. This does two things:

 

 

All of that leads to a massive decrease in value across the board.

 

My point though remains the same: at the present time it is not worth it for anyone to actively seek 31/72 schematics. The money making and/or saving aspect of obtaining the schematics is gone. If one wants a 31/72 item modification one is better off simply buying it off the GTM rather than trying to obtain the schematic via RE. If the opportunity to RE a given item modification presents itself then one should go for it, otherwise do not bother.

 

And as I said in the other thread, I practice what I preach. The overwhelming majority of my crafting efforts go into grade 28 item modifications and mostly prototype/blue to boot. I have a handful of 30 and 31 schematics but have never crafted them. And while I have not made the hundreds of millions of credits professed on these forums, I can say that I have a hard time keeping up with demand of what I craft and I have obtained far more credits than I will ever use because the profit margin percentages are FAR better and more consistent.