Please upgrade your browser for the best possible experience.

Chrome Firefox Internet Explorer
×

[Slicing] Critical success rate

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
[Slicing] Critical success rate

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
07.27.2012 , 02:30 AM | #71
Quote: Originally Posted by Triality View Post
The original post has been updated, results are...

Total missions: 975
Critical success rate: 16.8%
Failure rate: 2.9%

As the sample set increases, I am more convinced that the chance of obtaining a critical success is not what was stated in Patrick Malott (Systems Designer)'s post. The pertinent text follows..

Patrick Malott (Systems Designer): The baseline crit chance for crafting is dependent on the difficulty of the crafting action relative to your current crafting skill level. The difficulty is color coded in the crafting GUI.

Orange Difficulty: 10%

Yellow, Green, and Gray Difficulty: 15%

Companion Affection scales Crew Skill chance up to +5% at maximum affection.

A Companion Trait critical chance bonus of +1 or +5 is a percentage. Example: The Imperial Agent companion character Kaliyo grants a +2 bonus to Underworld Trading Critical. This is +2% bonus.

Using Kaliyo at maximum affection as an example, if she ran a green difficulty Underworld Trading mission for you, she would have a 22% chance to score a mission critical success.
What "color" are the missions you are running?
Do any of your companions have a crit for the missions you are running?

Also, do not expect a small (i.e., 500 more, even 1000 more...) additional set of trials to improve your numbers. It's all random, so your next 500 trials might all be crits. Odds are, though, if it is a "yellow, green or gray difficulty" mission with a companion at 10k affection, you have an 80% chance to fail to crit the next time you run a mission. That means your success rate has a 4 in 5 chance of getting worse, not better. The same is true of the trial after that. And the trial after that. And so on. Things don't "average out" or converge to the expected rate that quickly.

That's the genius of SWTOR's system for ya ... odds are that if you start off "in the hole", in the theoretical short-run, which can be an actual long set of days and weeks or more, you will not only stay in the hole, but get further into it.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
DatacronHunter's Video Guides to Datacrons | Datacron Spreadsheet

DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
07.27.2012 , 07:59 AM | #72
I reset my tracking tool a week ago so my numbers are probably statistically irrelevant, but here goes.

Devoted to Duty / Whispers on the Net
Run: 156
Crit: 20
Crit %: 13%
(Crit = Advanced Neural Augmentor return)

Mysterious Funds
Run: 157
Crit: 31
Crit %: 20%
(Crit = Advanced Neural Augmentor return)

The Azure Databanks / Data Race
Run: 106
Crit: 23
Crit%: 22%
(Crit = Mission or Schematic return)

Taking Back Control
Run: 84
Crit: 16
Crit %: 19%

Finding Our Way / The Fly on the Wall
Run: 86
Crit: 15
Crit %: 17%

I only track missions for companions with 10k affection. I tend to optimize my crew skills to maximize +Crit so my results may be skewed very slightly higher than the norm. Then again, it's only ~100 missions each...

I also watch crit% as I send pets out on missions and choose the higher crit% when available. I don't know if that affects the numbers beyond meaning that I tend to run The Azure Databanks and Data Race much more often than the other 2 lockbox missions.



Quote: Originally Posted by finelinebob View Post
That's the genius of SWTOR's system for ya ... odds are that if you start off "in the hole", in the theoretical short-run, which can be an actual long set of days and weeks or more, you will not only stay in the hole, but get further into it.
Eh, maybe not so much. Over time (number of instances), the returns should more or less normalize to their designed percentages. I believe if we could track 10 million of any given mission, we should know what the designed crit % should be within a few 100ths of a percentage point.

Anecdotal evidence, at one point Mysterious Funds was all the way down to 11% crit for me.

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
07.27.2012 , 09:55 AM | #73
Quote: Originally Posted by DarthTHC View Post
I reset my tracking tool a week ago so my numbers are probably statistically irrelevant...
Yep, that they are. But they are all over the place, so a good example of why you should not trust small sample sizes.

Quote: Originally Posted by DarthTHC View Post
I also watch crit% as I send pets out on missions and choose the higher crit% when available. I don't know if that affects the numbers beyond meaning that I tend to run The Azure Databanks and Data Race much more often than the other 2 lockbox missions.
Yes, it does. But, for slicing, the best you can do is a +2 crit with T7 or Andronikos or Scorpio. That's 2%, which probably gets lost in all the "noise" of a small random sample. Even then, a companion with 10k affection gets a 5% bonus, so those "expert" crew members have their bonuses blown away by a crew member who "really really likes you." So much for "expertise"....
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
DatacronHunter's Video Guides to Datacrons | Datacron Spreadsheet

DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
07.27.2012 , 10:45 AM | #74
Quote: Originally Posted by finelinebob View Post
Yep, that they are. But they are all over the place, so a good example of why you should not trust small sample sizes.
Right. But if enough of us put our small sample sizes together, we could at some point have a large enough sample size to ferret it out.

The problem with that approach is that EA could change the percentages with any patch so we'd be limited to only the number of samples we can gather between patches.

Obviously EA isn't going to tell us when they adjust things - they are piss poor communicators as it is and given the backlash last nerf they're probably timid now too. The best we can do is all we can do, right? It's better than not tracking anything, because at least we know something.

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
07.27.2012 , 02:35 PM | #75
Quote: Originally Posted by DarthTHC View Post
Right. But if enough of us put our small sample sizes together, we could at some point have a large enough sample size to ferret it out.
Only if we get a random sample of people playing to report. Just because people would post to such an item doesn't mean they wouldn't have an ax to grind. I'm guessing that if we were to start a post to track success rates that a good number of people would be honest about it and report their numbers as is. Another good number of people would be reporting their lower-than-expected rates, completely honestly, but doing so because they suspected something was wrong and/or wanted to biyatch and so came to the forums and found the thread. I'd also expect that for a good number of people for whom things were going fine or better than expected, they'd never even think of looking here or knowing to report.

We would never know, but that sort of bias in reporting -- nothing intentional, but just a consequence of who would most be likely to be reading this -- would toss out the validity of anything we'd do.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
DatacronHunter's Video Guides to Datacrons | Datacron Spreadsheet

ConnorSalak's Avatar


ConnorSalak
07.28.2012 , 12:31 PM | #76
Well, now that's interesting!
Starting a new count on Tuesday, the stats changed drastically: 15 criticials in 63 missions = 23% !! (Which is nearly on the spot, considering Scorpio's 2% bonus)
Is this pure luck or did the last patch include some change of parameters for the slicing missions? Am I the only one with those "new" numbers?

I really don't mind
...unfortunately in the meantime the prices for augments dropped by 20% on my server

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
07.28.2012 , 02:28 PM | #77
Quote: Originally Posted by ConnorSalak View Post
Is this pure luck or did the last patch include some change of parameters for the slicing missions?
If by "luck" you mean a random distribution of probabilistic events weighted slightly above an expected return, then yes.

Don't expect it to stay that way, given that your chances to fail are far greater than your chances to succeed. It is certainly possible that your success rate might actually improve, but it's not at all probable.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
DatacronHunter's Video Guides to Datacrons | Datacron Spreadsheet