I'm trying to dig out the info, but I'm pretty sure the devs have stated that RE chance is modified by your level of crafting skill VS the item's actual level. Which means that you simply wouldn't have enough info to claim anything at all, since we don't know how the initial 20% base rating would be affected.
For all we know, you could be at 20% base - 5% mod. Meaning your 14ish% would be right within target.
I'll post link of the Dev post ASAP.
Hmm. I've been following crafting posts for a long time and have never seen any dev post like that.
Are you sure you aren't thinking of the green/yellow/orange gathering missions? Those have different success percentages.