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30 Items at 20% Chance to RE Each and Not a Single Hit? Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIGHT....

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
30 Items at 20% Chance to RE Each and Not a Single Hit? Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIGHT....

Socialist's Avatar


Socialist
02.17.2013 , 08:19 PM | #31
Quote: Originally Posted by KatrinaKatt View Post
Probability of 30 items giving 0 schematic REs at 20% chance,

(excel)
=BINOM.DIST(0, 30, 0.2, FALSE)
= 0.00123 = 0.123%

That horribly sucks Never been that unlucky yet.
I am an Economist and I approve this post.
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mothear's Avatar


mothear
02.17.2013 , 08:47 PM | #32
I am sure overall I will probably average out at the correct % but tthe thing that bugs me is that you never seem to get the correct pre-fix which makes it seem worse than it actually is.

annabethchase's Avatar


annabethchase
02.17.2013 , 09:17 PM | #33
Quote: Originally Posted by Kalfear View Post
Thanks for that detailed response

Totally see where your coming from and how you came to these conclusions

So refreshing as well cause so often we just see 2 word answers that are confrontational by design with out adding anything constructive or meaningful to the discussion at hand.

Really hope EA is watching closely to see your articulately presented counter
Take a statistics course. No explanation is needed or justified.
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mastirkal's Avatar


mastirkal
02.17.2013 , 09:34 PM | #34
While individuality 1/5^30 is 1.0737418e-21 technically speaking it should be impossible for you to miss that many times on a single item in your lifetime you have to remember that successes in this game are accumulative. If you want the highest chance of getting a crit in that 1/5 ratio RE 5 of them at a very unpopulated time or a peak populated time. You'll have the most success then.

Kaerwolf's Avatar


Kaerwolf
02.17.2013 , 09:41 PM | #35
Based on the probability system many of you defend the current "random-system" which means you either end up in streaks of endless misses or streaks of luck noone should continue RE after 5 misses and instead wait a while and try again until they succeed within the first couple of RE attempts and continue for multiple frequent successes, thus exploiting the system. Successes do come frequent once the pop comes and a costly streak of misses can easily go on for 20-30 failed RE attempts in a row. I think this is the problem the thread opener was adressing.

ConradLionhart's Avatar


ConradLionhart
02.17.2013 , 10:37 PM | #36
There's always a possibility that the RNG is really broken and if the devs find out about this, they will secretly deny it.

But the most likely scenario is that you were EXTREMELY unlucky, and for that I offer you my condolences.
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TheShootist's Avatar


TheShootist
02.17.2013 , 11:25 PM | #37
early days I remember REing 100+ times on level 49 items before getting a schematic. One implant I did finally hit after just over 90 attempts, worst part is it gave the command version for presents. After that I went another 40 tries before giving up.

Aries_cz's Avatar


Aries_cz
02.18.2013 , 04:39 AM | #38
As many have said, it is 20% chance on each attempt, it does not stack.
Although I would welcome a system that even failure to RE an item would increase a chance of next RE attempt. Although it would be a programmer's nightmare to keep these numbers stored for each item.
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Kalfear's Avatar


Kalfear
02.18.2013 , 05:54 AM | #39
Quote: Originally Posted by annabethchase View Post
Take a statistics course. No explanation is needed or justified.
and I could respond with

Take a English language course to learn how to put your thoughts into a written response

Your response doesn't mean a thing and frankly makes me laugh (pretty sure my post secondary accounting beats your grade 9 statistics and neither have anything at all to do with game).

Seriously, I made a proposal
if you don't like it
EXPLAIN WHY and be constructive addition to thread
If you cant explain why
see above suggestion for English language course on how to put your thoughts into a written post

No need to troll the forums as you currently doing
Your adding nothing to the thread other then crappy attitude and unearned ego
In regards to lessening F2P and Preferred restrictions
In GAMING, as in LIFE,
You get what you pay for
No game restriction is so dire that $15.00/month will not eliminate it

Kalfear's Avatar


Kalfear
02.18.2013 , 06:09 AM | #40
Quote: Originally Posted by Aries_cz View Post
As many have said, it is 20% chance on each attempt, it does not stack.
Although I would welcome a system that even failure to RE an item would increase a chance of next RE attempt. Although it would be a programmer's nightmare to keep these numbers stored for each item.
naaaa no need to store long term
just in that session

So you RE a item at 20% and fail
wait 20 minutes and RE 2nd item you restart at 20%

BUT

If you make 5 items (or get 5 Black Hole items) and RE them 1 after another in 1 sitting till you get success
Then you should gain chances at greater success

As I posted before

first try 20%
2nd try 40%
3rd try 60%
4th try 80%
5th try 100%

If you RE in one sitting a 20% chance item

And for high level items (would have to be stuff added after this as changing percentages on items that others RE'd at already completely unfair) they could start coming out with lesser % chances of like 2%, 1% so people understand going to 100 tries could be a issue and possible.

Im sorry but I just dont buy 57, 63, 93 tries at 20% as unlucky.
Unlucky doesnt even scratch the surface of naming the chances of doing that multiple times.
Do people realize the odds of missing a 20% chance that many times in a row?
And then multiple people doing so, not just 1,
meaning the odds get even lower and more outlandish?
Completely undermines the laws of average.
As someone said in this thread, if Vegas or any casino worked the way this is suppose to work, they would be under investigation for corruption and machine fixing on their slots

Its funny, some "poster" told me to take a statistics course to under stand this but funny thing is any statistics course would show you how insanely small and unlikely the odds of missing a 20% margin is, the more times you roll. Her attempted insult in fact completely blows up in her face and completely negates the attempted point/insult she was trying to make.

But yeah, it doesnt have to be complicated

store the numbers for a set period of time (5 minutes) and then it starts over so you only improve your chances by covering the odds number wise
In regards to lessening F2P and Preferred restrictions
In GAMING, as in LIFE,
You get what you pay for
No game restriction is so dire that $15.00/month will not eliminate it