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30 Items at 20% Chance to RE Each and Not a Single Hit? Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIGHT....

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
30 Items at 20% Chance to RE Each and Not a Single Hit? Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIGHT....

asbalana's Avatar


asbalana
02.17.2013 , 03:41 PM | #21
Quote: Originally Posted by Quellryloth View Post
Interesting. As was already pointed out, the probability of 30 misses in a row is a little more than 1 in 1000. This is unlikely, but far from impossible. In fact, with hundreds of thousands of players, it probably happens to a few people for any given item.

On the other hand, the probability of 79 misses in a row is 2.2e-8 (2.2 times 10 to the -8th power) or approximately 1 in fifty million. This is of the same order of magnitude as winning the grand prize in most lotteries. It's possible, but really, really unlikely.
Yup. Unfortunately I don't have the same luck in lotteries.

In any case, I have seen players that I believe are reputable post about similar and longer streaks in the crafting section of the forum. The threads pop up, generate the same discussion about probability and the number of players that attempt to RE and how anything can happen in a small sample and then die away until the next frustrated person starts the same old thread again.

One reason that there are a lot of complaints about the RE process is that the unlikely is likely to happen and does so more often than one would expect.

RNG is RNG except that in this game it seems more RNGy that one would expect.

Kalfear's Avatar


Kalfear
02.17.2013 , 04:17 PM | #22
Quote: Originally Posted by annabethchase View Post
so wrong...
Thanks for that detailed response

Totally see where your coming from and how you came to these conclusions

So refreshing as well cause so often we just see 2 word answers that are confrontational by design with out adding anything constructive or meaningful to the discussion at hand.

Really hope EA is watching closely to see your articulately presented counter
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darklordpotter's Avatar


darklordpotter
02.17.2013 , 04:36 PM | #23
Quote: Originally Posted by asbalana View Post
Yup. Unfortunately I don't have the same luck in lotteries.

In any case, I have seen players that I believe are reputable post about similar and longer streaks in the crafting section of the forum. The threads pop up, generate the same discussion about probability and the number of players that attempt to RE and how anything can happen in a small sample and then die away until the next frustrated person starts the same old thread again.

One reason that there are a lot of complaints about the RE process is that the unlikely is likely to happen and does so more often than one would expect.

RNG is RNG except that in this game it seems more RNGy that one would expect.
Very big sample size...

JustTed's Avatar


JustTed
02.17.2013 , 04:57 PM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by Ahl-Vinn View Post

Haha! Thank you. I enjoyed your response the most.

And a big LOL at anyone who does not believe me mentally capable of comprehending "random" chance. I get it;
According to the title of this thread, you don't get it.

wargonglok's Avatar


wargonglok
02.17.2013 , 05:02 PM | #25
you only have a 1/5 chance to get a hit every time

here is an easy example of how probability works

Take a coin, flip the coin over and over, record the flips, for the first 30 times do you get a lot of heads, or particularly tails? After a hundred look at it. The average will be 50/50

this is because every signle flip has a 50/50 chance.

So with RE you can go RE and fail, 4/5, then again, and the chances of failing are still 4/5, and again and the fail chance is still 4/5

you can fail a thousand times, and it just means you are very unlucky
Sniper, 'nough said

publicenemies's Avatar


publicenemies
02.17.2013 , 05:06 PM | #26
new in the cartel market crafting crit chance crits paks! only 1000 cartel coins!

The sad part is this isnt far off from bieng true

ivanhedgehog's Avatar


ivanhedgehog
02.17.2013 , 07:12 PM | #27
Quote: Originally Posted by JustTed View Post
You seem to not understand probability. Truly random sequences will have streaks in them.
If vegas had "random" number generators goughing up streaks like swtor they would be investigating it. Today on illum doing the kill beasts part of 1 of the missions. I got all fifteen of my drops in the first 5 or 6 groups, my wife got 1 drop off of each group. that has been the exact pattern for every day of the event. funny how that works that way.

Seriously, there needs to be streak breaker code added, like other more successfull games have.

AshlaBoga's Avatar


AshlaBoga
02.17.2013 , 07:27 PM | #28
The only trick I've noticed is that if you RE when you're on your speeder it seems lower your chances...

But that could just be coincidence.
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ivanhedgehog's Avatar


ivanhedgehog
02.17.2013 , 07:28 PM | #29
Quote: Originally Posted by asbalana View Post
Yup. Unfortunately I don't have the same luck in lotteries.

In any case, I have seen players that I believe are reputable post about similar and longer streaks in the crafting section of the forum. The threads pop up, generate the same discussion about probability and the number of players that attempt to RE and how anything can happen in a small sample and then die away until the next frustrated person starts the same old thread again.

One reason that there are a lot of complaints about the RE process is that the unlikely is likely to happen and does so more often than one would expect.

RNG is RNG except that in this game it seems more RNGy that one would expect.
the rng is only as good as the programmers that put it into use. Seeing as how bug free this game is, there could very likely be problems.

Nitblade's Avatar


Nitblade
02.17.2013 , 08:18 PM | #30
That thing's been horrible since day 1.
And it's not been fixed either despite numerous threads about it in the first few months.
People just gave up on it.
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