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30 Items at 20% Chance to RE Each and Not a Single Hit? Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIGHT....

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
30 Items at 20% Chance to RE Each and Not a Single Hit? Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIGHT....

Kalfear's Avatar


Kalfear
02.17.2013 , 11:55 AM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by Ahl-Vinn View Post

Just RE'd 2 different items, 15 each, both with 20% chance to RE. And?

NOTHING.

20%? Yeah, right. You're going to tell me that 30 items, each with a 20% chance to RE didn't ONCE hit within that 20% range?

What unseen element is it, exactly, that stops the random rolls in RE'ing from differing? For those of you who don't know, computers are unable to generate truly random numbers; their choice-selections are based off a time-clock, multiplied, sometimes several times within the same algorithm, off of said time-clock. Is it based on the minute? It should be on the hundreths of seconds.

This is far from the first time that I've wasted hundred of thousands of credits, either, in pursuit of the same thing. It wasn't level 47 stuff, either; the Might Mods were level 29, and the Blue Vehemence Crystals were level 31.

We need either a re-write of the "random"-number code in SWTOR, or a queue to guarantee that you get under-50 items to RE after so many tries.

/EndNerdRage

LOL, I routinely go 15-20-25 (at 20%) with no success

In fact I one time sent in a bug report because I REd a level 30 item 57 times and got NO SUCCESS

I was soooo angry

Of course they replied that the system was working as intended
but anyone with grade 1 math could see it wasnt and still isnt to this day

Truth of matter is they should have never told us the fake percentage chance on a item when REing

But because they did, then it should RE as presented
10% chance means a 1 in 10 chance to RE something
20% means 1 in 5

Now I know they will say its server/game wide but personally I dont give a rats behind if Lord Poppypants gets his RE all the time of his first try.
His % should have no effect on my percent
Just as mine should have no effect on his.

Anyways my rule of thumb is if they say 10%, normally I will need 15-20 items for each success. 20% will require 10-15 items.
And every 4 days or so ill go into the 30s or 40s (number of items REd) to get the success

Its a massively flawed system and now everything coming in cartel shop and new crafting recipes are none existant.
Dont hold breath on it getting fixed

Some people have good luck and rest of us get terrible luck to make up for them

Just the way it is sadly

Personally I think it should work as following

20% chance items
you have a 20% chance on 1st RE of item
40% on 2nd RE
60% on 3rd RE
80% on 4th
and 100% on your 5th attempt if you have not already succeeded

In other words you have a 1 in 5 chance (20%) and never lower

if its a 10% items same principle but as its a 1 in 10 chance ir would grow by 10% each attempt until on the 10th attempt you are at 100%
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asbalana's Avatar


asbalana
02.17.2013 , 12:15 PM | #12
LOL, my record is 79 misses on a 20% chance. Then I just gave up because I knew that the probability of my missing another 79 times was exactlly the same as the first 79.

RNG is rng. The system is working as intended. It may be terrible, but that is what the devs want and what you have.

KatrinaKatt's Avatar


KatrinaKatt
02.17.2013 , 01:41 PM | #13
Probability of 30 items giving 0 schematic REs at 20% chance,

(excel)
=BINOM.DIST(0, 30, 0.2, FALSE)
= 0.00123 = 0.123%

That horribly sucks Never been that unlucky yet.

Ighten's Avatar


Ighten
02.17.2013 , 02:02 PM | #14
Why do people seem to think odds are cumulatively stacked.. The odds apply to each single attempt.. If you think its unlikely to get a win on one the same applies for each try so dont waste your time..

Kubernetic's Avatar


Kubernetic
02.17.2013 , 02:25 PM | #15
Remember all those times in crafting where you hit a blue or a purple on the first, second, or third try?

It evens out over time. I've had this happen to me too. Eventually, after 45 greens, I finally researched the blue schematic.
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Ahl-Vinn's Avatar


Ahl-Vinn
02.17.2013 , 03:00 PM | #16
Quote: Originally Posted by KatrinaKatt View Post
Probability of 30 items giving 0 schematic REs at 20% chance,

(excel)
=BINOM.DIST(0, 30, 0.2, FALSE)
= 0.00123 = 0.123%

That horribly sucks Never been that unlucky yet.

Haha! Thank you. I enjoyed your response the most.

And a big LOL at anyone who does not believe me mentally capable of comprehending "random" chance. I get it; it just frustrates the bantha poodu out of me. It's not the first time this has happened to me, though it is the first time yours truly has posted about it.

Still thinking an un-seen max of RE'd items should be implemented before guarantee'ing a proc for under-50 items. They're not end-game items anyways, and especially things like the color crystals to make the crystals can be hard or very time-consuming to come by, if not on the market.

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Ahl-Vinn, formerly of Servers Bria and Starsider, SWG
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Quellryloth's Avatar


Quellryloth
02.17.2013 , 03:25 PM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by asbalana View Post
LOL, my record is 79 misses on a 20% chance.
Interesting. As was already pointed out, the probability of 30 misses in a row is a little more than 1 in 1000. This is unlikely, but far from impossible. In fact, with hundreds of thousands of players, it probably happens to a few people for any given item.

On the other hand, the probability of 79 misses in a row is 2.2e-8 (2.2 times 10 to the -8th power) or approximately 1 in fifty million. This is of the same order of magnitude as winning the grand prize in most lotteries. It's possible, but really, really unlikely.

Cernow's Avatar


Cernow
02.17.2013 , 03:26 PM | #18
People will tell you its the RNG and there's no way to prove they aren't right. However, something doesn't feel right about RE'ing since the last patch. I do a lot of crafting and I've been getting runs of 20, 25, 30 REs without a result. Before the patch I almost never got into double figures of attempts before getting the result I was after. And definitely never 20 or 30 tries. Something has changed.

Subjective I know, I can't prove it and even if I posted detailed stats the naysayers would still explain it away with the RNG. But it feels like they stealth nerfed it, either intentionally or unintentionally. We've been here before. Bioware stealth nerfed RE'ing several times in the first few months after launch, the RE rate took a nose dive and they were forced to reverse the change after everyone complained (claiming it was caused by a bug).

Taken in isolation you could say this is also due to a bug. But alongside the recent changes to repair bills and, it's clear they are trying to drain some credits out of the economy. I don't mind them doing that if they feel the economy needs balancing, but at least be HONEST about it and publish the genuine RE rate instead of claiming its still 20%.

annabethchase's Avatar


annabethchase
02.17.2013 , 03:36 PM | #19
Quote: Originally Posted by Kalfear View Post
LOL, I routinely go 15-20-25 (at 20%) with no success

In fact I one time sent in a bug report because I REd a level 30 item 57 times and got NO SUCCESS

I was soooo angry

Of course they replied that the system was working as intended
but anyone with grade 1 math could see it wasnt and still isnt to this day

Truth of matter is they should have never told us the fake percentage chance on a item when REing

But because they did, then it should RE as presented
10% chance means a 1 in 10 chance to RE something
20% means 1 in 5

Now I know they will say its server/game wide but personally I dont give a rats behind if Lord Poppypants gets his RE all the time of his first try.
His % should have no effect on my percent
Just as mine should have no effect on his.

Anyways my rule of thumb is if they say 10%, normally I will need 15-20 items for each success. 20% will require 10-15 items.
And every 4 days or so ill go into the 30s or 40s (number of items REd) to get the success

Its a massively flawed system and now everything coming in cartel shop and new crafting recipes are none existant.
Dont hold breath on it getting fixed

Some people have good luck and rest of us get terrible luck to make up for them

Just the way it is sadly

Personally I think it should work as following

20% chance items
you have a 20% chance on 1st RE of item
40% on 2nd RE
60% on 3rd RE
80% on 4th
and 100% on your 5th attempt if you have not already succeeded

In other words you have a 1 in 5 chance (20%) and never lower

if its a 10% items same principle but as its a 1 in 10 chance ir would grow by 10% each attempt until on the 10th attempt you are at 100%
so wrong...
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Wraiven's Avatar


Wraiven
02.17.2013 , 03:37 PM | #20
Regardless, nobody should have to RE that many times to get it to proc. If the proc rates are that rare, then perhaps they need to increase the proc rate by a factor of 10%.
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