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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

psandak's Avatar


psandak
02.26.2013 , 09:58 AM | #81
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackardin View Post
As you said, "some" randomness is good....but not 100% randomness. Real world examples are valid as a comparison, as they make sense.

Bottom line, right now it cannot even be considered crafting,
its gambling no more or less then buying cartel packs. Without the ability to improve on one's chances through learned skill, that is all it is. The entirety of the argument regarding a learning curve is to move it away from gambling to actual crafting.
You are confusing crafting with schematic acquisition. crafting is the skill or art of making something. In this game you take materials and make something from those materials. That, by definition, is crafting. On the other hand, schematic acquisition in this game is both trained/learned and random. Basic schematics are trained and then you have a chance to improve upon them by trial and error. And even in the real world not everyone always succeeds when they try to improve upon an already existing thing. No matter how hard they try. And those are people who spend their lives in their craft.

Which leads me into...this is a game where the crafting is a secondary feature. Your character's "profession" is his/her class and advanced class and skill tree specialization; that is what you improve on consistently and persistently over time; your "learning curve." Crafting is something you do on the side, a hobby. If there was a synthweaver class or a armormech class, etc, I could see how the randomness of schematic acquisition would be annoying. But this is not the case.

Headpunch's Avatar


Headpunch
02.26.2013 , 07:30 PM | #82
It's a 20% chance to learn the schematic each time you RE the item. That means you have an 80% chance to fail each time you RE the item.

Each RE is an independent event, so each time you RE is a new 80% chance of failing to learn a schematic. RNG will make you unhappy sometimes, and other times you'll get that shiny Dread Guard schematic on the first try. Yay random outcomes!
Sev'ak
10/10 (Would Bang) NiM Power

jizerai's Avatar


jizerai
02.27.2013 , 11:52 AM | #83
Quote: Originally Posted by Headpunch View Post
It's a 20% chance to learn the schematic each time you RE the item. That means you have an 80% chance to fail each time you RE the item.

Each RE is an independent event, so each time you RE is a new 80% chance of failing to learn a schematic. RNG will make you unhappy sometimes, and other times you'll get that shiny Dread Guard schematic on the first try. Yay random outcomes!
You obviously haven't even read the first post? The OP is making a claim that it is in fact a very very low probability that the actual RE-chance is 20%.
Quote: Originally Posted by battlebug View Post
can you make sword in box light sword so sword come out when opened? then if sword is back after sword, use light saber on box, and saber will be boxed after sword is out.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
02.27.2013 , 01:52 PM | #84
It's been about 3 weeks since the original post. Is there any more data to hand? Has the deviation from 20% gotten worse or better?

Zunayson's Avatar


Zunayson
02.27.2013 , 03:46 PM | #85
Quote: Originally Posted by Zorash View Post
That test proves absolutely nothing. It's the same crap with WoW of people claiming that people roll hacked when someone rolled 100 twice in a row. The chance of that happening is 1 in 10,000, yet it happened all the time. If you have thousands of people REing stuff, some people will get the short end of the stick, some people will be extremely lucky.
This. Playing FPS games, I love it when people cant tell statistics; they rage and call everyone hackers, yet still admit that maybe 1 in 10 aren't really hackers.

I asked him if he ignores every 10th person he gets mad at, hilarity ensued.
Quote: Originally Posted by Uber_the_Goober View Post
Bioware couldn't balance a sheet of plywood if it were laying [sic] on the ground.
Quote: Originally Posted by Aragost View Post
Make sure you take 3/3 in the "knowing how to play" box

psandak's Avatar


psandak
02.28.2013 , 09:26 AM | #86
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
It's been about 3 weeks since the original post. Is there any more data to hand? Has the deviation from 20% gotten worse or better?
Most likely never will be until the next thread is created with a similar small sample size.

Headpunch's Avatar


Headpunch
02.28.2013 , 11:18 PM | #87
Quote: Originally Posted by jizerai View Post
You obviously haven't even read the first post? The OP is making a claim that it is in fact a very very low probability that the actual RE-chance is 20%.
I did read the post. I'm suggesting that the OP doesn't understand statistics, independent events, and random outcomes. A truly random 20% chance at an outcome when it comes to independent events means that over a very large sample size (IE, not people complaining on forums, in gen chat, or from a few guilds), crafters will learn a schematic 20% of the time they attempt a RE. As I said before, this means you have an 80% chance to fail each time. The game doesn't care how many times you tried before.

An event can be random and produce what looks like a pattern, it can randomly produce outcomes that are bad for you, or it can randomly produce outcomes that are good for you. People love to complain about getting really lousy outcomes when it comes to RNG, but nobody posts with a complaint saying, "Bioware, I've been getting schematics on the first try too much, please nerf my RE rates."

A bit unrelated, but I'm betting it's actually pretty close to 20%, and the reason the RE rate will be dropped to 10% for the 72 tier of raid gear is that Bioware is unhappy with how quickly people geared out in full 63s.
Sev'ak
10/10 (Would Bang) NiM Power

NotRonin's Avatar


NotRonin
03.01.2013 , 12:23 AM | #88
Quote: Originally Posted by Headpunch View Post
I did read the post. I'm suggesting that the OP doesn't understand statistics, independent events, and random outcomes. A truly random 20% chance at an outcome when it comes to independent events means that over a very large sample size (IE, not people complaining on forums, in gen chat, or from a few guilds), crafters will learn a schematic 20% of the time they attempt a RE. As I said before, this means you have an 80% chance to fail each time. The game doesn't care how many times you tried before.

An event can be random and produce what looks like a pattern, it can randomly produce outcomes that are bad for you, or it can randomly produce outcomes that are good for you. People love to complain about getting really lousy outcomes when it comes to RNG, but nobody posts with a complaint saying, "Bioware, I've been getting schematics on the first try too much, please nerf my RE rates."

A bit unrelated, but I'm betting it's actually pretty close to 20%, and the reason the RE rate will be dropped to 10% for the 72 tier of raid gear is that Bioware is unhappy with how quickly people geared out in full 63s.
Nobody has proved that the RE success are independent events. Nor has anyone proved that the chance is 20%. What the OP said is that IF the RE success rate are independent events that are evenly distributed, then he has a high confidence interval that it's not 20%.

The key words are 'Independent events', 'Evenly distributed', and '20%'. The first 2 has never been proven at all.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
03.01.2013 , 01:23 AM | #89
Quote: Originally Posted by Headpunch View Post
I did read the post. I'm suggesting that the OP doesn't understand statistics, independent events, and random outcomes. ...
*Sigh*

I may disagree with the OP about sample size, but there is NO DOUBT that he has a thorough and advanced understanding of statistics. You are completely misunderstanding the point he is trying to make. I would suggest looking up "Confidence Interval" and "Standard Deviation" and re-reading his post.

I also recommend re-reading post #17 and #18 and review the graphs both posters supplied supporting their points.

This thread is, at it's heart, a mathematical analysis of RE.

DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
03.01.2013 , 09:30 AM | #90
Quote: Originally Posted by Miravlix View Post
The usual gamers fallicy...

"Again, the fallacy is the belief that the "universe" somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes."

It's a 20% chance each time you re an item, it's not a 20% chance of all your re attempts.
If it's really a 20% chance, and you do it enough times, the actual results should show something very close to 20%.

The question is, what is "enough times" to prove the 20% out? It's not going to be measured in 100's or even 1,000's. Any statisticians care to answer that?
Human beings see oppression vividly when they're the victims. Otherwise they victimize blindly and without a thought. ~ Isaac Bashevis Singer