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Calculations for Estimated Wait time before Early Access

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
Calculations for Estimated Wait time before Early Access

Sarakul's Avatar


Sarakul
12.14.2011 , 08:06 AM | #1
I have been reading some of the Forums and saw a lot of people concerned with when they might gain entry into the Early Access. I did one calculation early yesterday and after some feedback and analysis I have correct my calculations. I believe this is a more accurate representation of my previous post. As a result I thought I would share with everyone what I did to help myself and my friends estimate our approximate wait time for entry into the early access. But first a few important points:

1) I am basing these calculations on assumptions and as a result they may be 100% accurate.
2) This is just an estimation that I came up which appears to be fairly logical.

That being said, lets look at the Assumptions I make followed by the general formula I came up with.
Assumptions:
1) there were approximately 3 million preorders worldwide (hard copy as well as digital) that have access to Early Access
2)Bioware would like to give as many people as possible the "up to 5 days of early access" they advertised as well as have a majority of the people in for the weekend. This means most people will be getting in from 12th-17th (6 days)

Calculations:
3 million people / (24 hours*6 days) = 20,833 people entering / hour
20,833 people / 103 (total servers currently posted) = approx. 160 people per server per hour
160 people / 4 starting zones = 40 people in each starting zone every hour
This number seems very reasonable in allowing people enough time to progress through the starting zones without much competition with other players over quest mobs.

From this I was able to calculate how long it would be before I would gain early access. Using the VGChartz and my own code registration date I came up with the following:
I registered Nov. 28th, which put approx. 900,000 hard copy preorder codes in front of me. As this does not include digital copies, I took 900,000 (from VGChartz)*2.65(preorder coefficent) = 2.39 million people in front of me. I believe this "preorder coefficent" accurately represents the following factors:

1) not everyone who preorder a hard copy was able to immediately enter an early access code as those who purchased a digital copy.
2)the number of digital preorders and hard copy preorders in front of me.
3)outlying, misc factors; such as work schedual, preorder code availability, ect.

Therefore:
2.39 million people / 20,833 people per hour = 114 hours before my entry into early access.
Using this I can estimate the hours of waiting based on preorder date:
114 hours / 131 days (Nov 28th is 131 days after July 21st) = 0.874 hours/day from preorder registation

Using this you could estimate how long you would have to wait based on your preorder date.
Example:
Sept. 7th -> 49 days * 0.874 hours/day = about 42 hours
Oct. 13th -> 85 days * 0.874 hours/day = about 74 hours

Some Additional Notes:
This estimation may only be useful for those of us who preordered after the September 1st as there was a very large amount of July and early August preorders indicating an exponetial curve in sales. Taking that into account, there was a more linear curve following mid August preorders. This would require additional time getting those accounts into the game and would shift the linear curve I am using back to approximately Sept. 1st.

Bioware is not doing hourly waves but waves every few hours. However I believe the calculation still holds in that instead of 20,833 people ever hour it is closer to 62,000 every 3 hours or even a much larger group over only a few waves. In any case I believe this is still an accurate reflection of the number of people Bioware will try and get into the game per day.

This is a static equation and does not take into account server stability. If the serves hold better/worse than Bioware may let more/less people in per wave and it will change the estimation as such.

There was a series of complex factors I used to arrive at the number of preorders before myself (2.39 million) that were incorporated into the "preorder coefficent" I used to determine the estimated time, but I felt that adding them would only further complicate this post.

This is merely an estimation I detrived to help some of my friends get a better idea of when they might get into the game and I understand it is not 'hard science' and is subject to many factors. I tried to account for as many of those factors as I could but I am sure I have not considered every single one of them. That being said it is only an estimate.

I hope this helped any of you who might have been wondering. I look forward to seeing you all in the game within the next few days!

ANOTHER ADDITION AFTER DAY 1 OF PREORDERS
After the first 5 waves have been done I have found posts indicating that not everyone from July preorders got in today. That being said the number of people they would let in per hour is significantly lower than my original estimations (8,500 compared to 20,800).

But fear not!

This leads me to believe that there was some other factor causing them to let in a limited number of people in on the first day. I would also take into account that during the beta stress there were significantly more people on the servers. That being stated I would expect them to let in significantly more people in the coming day or two to make up for this deficit in during the first day.

I have also read from Dev Tracker that they will be adding more servers than the original 103 posted. That being said, expect more people to be added in the following days which will likely put us back on a linear curve of induction (linear favored over exponential to minimize stress factors on servers). All things considered so far I would not be too worried about the exact time you will get in and as a result of these new considerations I would recommend adding 1 day to your original estimation, remembering that I am just a fan, not a Bioware employeee, and this is just a rough estimation.