Just RE'd 2 different items, 15 each, both with 20% chance to RE. And?

NOTHING.

20%? Yeah, right. You're going to tell me that 30 items, each with a 20% chance to RE didn't ONCE hit within that 20% range?

What unseen element is it, exactly, that stops the random rolls in RE'ing from differing? For those of you who don't know, computers are unable to generate truly random numbers; their choice-selections are based off a time-clock, multiplied, sometimes several times within the same algorithm, off of said time-clock. Is it based on the minute? It should be on the hundreths of seconds.

This is far from the first time that I've wasted hundred of thousands of credits, either, in pursuit of the same thing. It wasn't level 47 stuff, either; the Might Mods were level 29, and the Blue Vehemence Crystals were level 31.

We need either a re-write of the "random"-number code in SWTOR, or a queue to guarantee that you get under-50 items to RE after so many tries.

/EndNerdRage

Well I understand your frustration, in theory you could RE 80 or even more of them and get nothing. It's a flat 20% chance each time, not cumulative.

My highest was 54 of one type of implant without a proc....

Just RE'd 2 different items, 15 each, both with 20% chance to RE. And?

 

NOTHING.

 

20%? Yeah, right. You're going to tell me that 30 items, each with a 20% chance to RE didn't ONCE hit within that 20% range?

 

What unseen element is it, exactly, that stops the random rolls in RE'ing from differing? For those of you who don't know, computers are unable to generate truly random numbers; their choice-selections are based off a time-clock, multiplied, sometimes several times within the same algorithm, off of said time-clock. Is it based on the minute? It should be on the hundreths of seconds.

 

This is far from the first time that I've wasted hundred of thousands of credits, either, in pursuit of the same thing. It wasn't level 47 stuff, either; the Might Mods were level 29, and the Blue Vehemence Crystals were level 31.

 

We need either a re-write of the "random"-number code in SWTOR, or a queue to guarantee that you get under-50 items to RE after so many tries.

 

/EndNerdRage

 

I REed 9 items last night and had 6 dings. I think I owe you an apology for stealing your successes.

I REed 9 items last night and had 6 dings. I think I owe you an apology for stealing your successes.

It was my fault too.

I RE'd 12 items and learned 7 so I am also to blame:o

Just RE'd 2 different items, 15 each, both with 20% chance to RE. And?

 

NOTHING.

 

20%? Yeah, right. You're going to tell me that 30 items, each with a 20% chance to RE didn't ONCE hit within that 20% range?

20% chance isn't as high as it looks like.

I'll give you an example from another game. There i had an alchemist who specializes in flask (stims) making, which means he has a roughly 20% chance to create additional flasks at a time. Once i've bought enough regs to create 400+ flasks of different type. Guess how many procs i got from over 400 tries? Between 15 and 20. Yeah, that's it. It's not your average proc rate of course, i just went extremely unlucky.

My point is, anything can happen

Just RE'd 2 different items, 15 each, both with 20% chance to RE. And?

 

NOTHING.

 

20%? Yeah, right. You're going to tell me that 30 items, each with a 20% chance to RE didn't ONCE hit within that 20% range?

 

What unseen element is it, exactly, that stops the random rolls in RE'ing from differing? For those of you who don't know, computers are unable to generate truly random numbers; their choice-selections are based off a time-clock, multiplied, sometimes several times within the same algorithm, off of said time-clock. Is it based on the minute? It should be on the hundreths of seconds.

 

This is far from the first time that I've wasted hundred of thousands of credits, either, in pursuit of the same thing. It wasn't level 47 stuff, either; the Might Mods were level 29, and the Blue Vehemence Crystals were level 31.

 

We need either a re-write of the "random"-number code in SWTOR, or a queue to guarantee that you get under-50 items to RE after so many tries.

 

/EndNerdRage

 

You don't understand statistics and probability and the rnd is probably being seeding with one ten millionth of a second the system clock, btw It's possible (but unlikely) that you could even take a stack of a trillion items all with an individual 20% of re and still have nothing reverse engineer.

It's RNG. So, it's not 20% on 30 items. It's 20% on 1 item 30 times. The more you do doesn't increase your chance to RE. 30 seems a bit much but it has taken me a long time for certain augment 22s to finally get artifact.

Just keep trying. There's no trick really.

Just RE'd 2 different items, 15 each, both with 20% chance to RE. And?

 

NOTHING.

 

20%? Yeah, right. You're going to tell me that 30 items, each with a 20% chance to RE didn't ONCE hit within that 20% range?

 

What unseen element is it, exactly, that stops the random rolls in RE'ing from differing? For those of you who don't know, computers are unable to generate truly random numbers; their choice-selections are based off a time-clock, multiplied, sometimes several times within the same algorithm, off of said time-clock. Is it based on the minute? It should be on the hundreths of seconds.

 

This is far from the first time that I've wasted hundred of thousands of credits, either, in pursuit of the same thing. It wasn't level 47 stuff, either; the Might Mods were level 29, and the Blue Vehemence Crystals were level 31.

 

We need either a re-write of the "random"-number code in SWTOR, or a queue to guarantee that you get under-50 items to RE after so many tries.

 

/EndNerdRage

 

LOL, I routinely go 15-20-25 (at 20%) with no success

In fact I one time sent in a bug report because I REd a level 30 item 57 times and got NO SUCCESS

I was soooo angry

Of course they replied that the system was working as intended

but anyone with grade 1 math could see it wasnt and still isnt to this day

Truth of matter is they should have never told us the fake percentage chance on a item when REing

But because they did, then it should RE as presented

10% chance means a 1 in 10 chance to RE something

20% means 1 in 5

Now I know they will say its server/game wide but personally I dont give a rats behind if Lord Poppypants gets his RE all the time of his first try.

His % should have no effect on my percent

Just as mine should have no effect on his.

Anyways my rule of thumb is if they say 10%, normally I will need 15-20 items for each success. 20% will require 10-15 items.

And every 4 days or so ill go into the 30s or 40s (number of items REd) to get the success

Its a massively flawed system and now everything coming in cartel shop and new crafting recipes are none existant.

Dont hold breath on it getting fixed

Some people have good luck and rest of us get terrible luck to make up for them

Just the way it is sadly

Personally I think it should work as following

20% chance items

you have a 20% chance on 1st RE of item

40% on 2nd RE

60% on 3rd RE

80% on 4th

and 100% on your 5th attempt if you have not already succeeded

In other words you have a 1 in 5 chance (20%) and never lower

if its a 10% items same principle but as its a 1 in 10 chance ir would grow by 10% each attempt until on the 10th attempt you are at 100%

LOL, my record is 79 misses on a 20% chance. Then I just gave up because I knew that the probability of my missing another 79 times was exactlly the same as the first 79.

RNG is rng. The system is working as intended. It may be terrible, but that is what the devs want and what you have.

Probability of 30 items giving 0 schematic REs at 20% chance,

(excel)

=BINOM.DIST(0, 30, 0.2, FALSE)

= 0.00123 = 0.123%

That horribly sucks Never been that unlucky yet.

Remember all those times in crafting where you hit a blue or a purple on the first, second, or third try?

It evens out over time. I've had this happen to me too. Eventually, after 45 greens, I finally researched the blue schematic.

Probability of 30 items giving 0 schematic REs at 20% chance,

 

(excel)

=BINOM.DIST(0, 30, 0.2, FALSE)

= 0.00123 = 0.123%

 

That horribly sucks Never been that unlucky yet.

Haha! Thank you. I enjoyed your response the most.

And a big LOL at anyone who does not believe me mentally capable of comprehending "random" chance. I get it; it just frustrates the bantha poodu out of me. It's not the first time this has happened to me, though it is the first time yours truly has posted about it.

Still thinking an un-seen max of RE'd items should be implemented before guarantee'ing a proc for under-50 items. They're not end-game items anyways, and especially things like the color crystals to make the crystals can be hard or very time-consuming to come by, if not on the market.

LOL, my record is 79 misses on a 20% chance.

Interesting. As was already pointed out, the probability of 30 misses in a row is a little more than 1 in 1000. This is unlikely, but far from impossible. In fact, with hundreds of thousands of players, it probably happens to a few people for any given item.

On the other hand, the probability of 79 misses in a row is 2.2e-8 (2.2 times 10 to the -8th power) or approximately 1 in fifty million. This is of the same order of magnitude as winning the grand prize in most lotteries. It's possible, but really, really unlikely.

People will tell you its the RNG and there's no way to prove they aren't right. However, something doesn't feel right about RE'ing since the last patch. I do a lot of crafting and I've been getting runs of 20, 25, 30 REs without a result. Before the patch I almost never got into double figures of attempts before getting the result I was after. And definitely never 20 or 30 tries. Something has changed.

Subjective I know, I can't prove it and even if I posted detailed stats the naysayers would still explain it away with the RNG. But it feels like they stealth nerfed it, either intentionally or unintentionally. We've been here before. Bioware stealth nerfed RE'ing several times in the first few months after launch, the RE rate took a nose dive and they were forced to reverse the change after everyone complained (claiming it was caused by a bug).

Taken in isolation you could say this is also due to a bug. But alongside the recent changes to repair bills and, it's clear they are trying to drain some credits out of the economy. I don't mind them doing that if they feel the economy needs balancing, but at least be HONEST about it and publish the genuine RE rate instead of claiming its still 20%.

LOL, I routinely go 15-20-25 (at 20%) with no success

 

In fact I one time sent in a bug report because I REd a level 30 item 57 times and got NO SUCCESS

 

I was soooo angry

 

Of course they replied that the system was working as intended

but anyone with grade 1 math could see it wasnt and still isnt to this day

 

Truth of matter is they should have never told us the fake percentage chance on a item when REing

 

But because they did, then it should RE as presented

10% chance means a 1 in 10 chance to RE something

20% means 1 in 5

 

Now I know they will say its server/game wide but personally I dont give a rats behind if Lord Poppypants gets his RE all the time of his first try.

His % should have no effect on my percent

Just as mine should have no effect on his.

 

Anyways my rule of thumb is if they say 10%, normally I will need 15-20 items for each success. 20% will require 10-15 items.

And every 4 days or so ill go into the 30s or 40s (number of items REd) to get the success

 

Its a massively flawed system and now everything coming in cartel shop and new crafting recipes are none existant.

Dont hold breath on it getting fixed

 

Some people have good luck and rest of us get terrible luck to make up for them

 

Just the way it is sadly

 

Personally I think it should work as following

 

20% chance items

you have a 20% chance on 1st RE of item

40% on 2nd RE

60% on 3rd RE

80% on 4th

and 100% on your 5th attempt if you have not already succeeded

 

In other words you have a 1 in 5 chance (20%) and never lower

 

if its a 10% items same principle but as its a 1 in 10 chance ir would grow by 10% each attempt until on the 10th attempt you are at 100%

so wrong...

Interesting. As was already pointed out, the probability of 30 misses in a row is a little more than 1 in 1000. This is unlikely, but far from impossible. In fact, with hundreds of thousands of players, it probably happens to a few people for any given item.

 

On the other hand, the probability of 79 misses in a row is 2.2e-8 (2.2 times 10 to the -8th power) or approximately 1 in fifty million. This is of the same order of magnitude as winning the grand prize in most lotteries. It's possible, but really, really unlikely.

Yup. Unfortunately I don't have the same luck in lotteries.

In any case, I have seen players that I believe are reputable post about similar and longer streaks in the crafting section of the forum. The threads pop up, generate the same discussion about probability and the number of players that attempt to RE and how anything can happen in a small sample and then die away until the next frustrated person starts the same old thread again.

One reason that there are a lot of complaints about the RE process is that the unlikely is likely to happen and does so more often than one would expect.

RNG is RNG except that in this game it seems more RNGy that one would expect.

so wrong...

Thanks for that detailed response

Totally see where your coming from and how you came to these conclusions

So refreshing as well cause so often we just see 2 word answers that are confrontational by design with out adding anything constructive or meaningful to the discussion at hand.

Really hope EA is watching closely to see your articulately presented counter

Yup. Unfortunately I don't have the same luck in lotteries.

 

In any case, I have seen players that I believe are reputable post about similar and longer streaks in the crafting section of the forum. The threads pop up, generate the same discussion about probability and the number of players that attempt to RE and how anything can happen in a small sample and then die away until the next frustrated person starts the same old thread again.

 

One reason that there are a lot of complaints about the RE process is that the unlikely is likely to happen and does so more often than one would expect.

 

RNG is RNG except that in this game it seems more RNGy that one would expect.

Very big sample size...

Haha! Thank you. I enjoyed your response the most.

 

And a big LOL at anyone who does not believe me mentally capable of comprehending "random" chance. I get it;

According to the title of this thread, you don't get it.

you only have a 1/5 chance to get a hit every time

here is an easy example of how probability works

Take a coin, flip the coin over and over, record the flips, for the first 30 times do you get a lot of heads, or particularly tails? After a hundred look at it. The average will be 50/50

this is because every signle flip has a 50/50 chance.

So with RE you can go RE and fail, 4/5, then again, and the chances of failing are still 4/5, and again and the fail chance is still 4/5

you can fail a thousand times, and it just means you are very unlucky