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Probabilities mean nothing - RE still needs fix

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Probabilities mean nothing - RE still needs fix

Overmind's Avatar


Overmind
03.27.2015 , 05:37 AM | #1
Reverse engineering is still bad.
As it was very long time ago, probabilities of RE mean nothing.
Practically it is possible infinitely RE without getting a schematic.

Yes, probabilities mean nothing since the chance is the same of 5,10 or 20% for the first item, for the second item, for 1000000th item since the RE events are unrelated.


Few days ago I REd 44 items to get one schematic.

I won't count this one in the below today's test:

REed 24 Armors/Mod @20% - Expected REs: 4.8 (5) - Real REs: 2 (-240%) - In %: 8.3
REed 19 Heavy and Medium armors @20% - Expected REs: 3.8 (4) - Real REs: 1 (-380%) - In %: 5.26
REed 27 Barrles/Augs @20% - Expected REs: 5 (5.4) - Real REs: 2 (-270%) - In %: 7.4
REed 7 Medpaks @20% - Expected REs: 1 (1.4) - Real REs: 0 (FAIL) - In%: 0% (ignored).

Calculated practical probability from the first 3: 6.987% chance for a drop and that's ignoring the last one that is total zero and the initial one a few days ago that is 0.45%. Even so, that's under 7%.

Please explain. When does that 20% actually happen ?

Anyway, a system that increases the probability of a RE for the same item that failed to RE is needed. The current system is just too cheated, just like I re-re-re confirmed above.

SteveTheCynic's Avatar


SteveTheCynic
03.27.2015 , 07:27 AM | #2
Quote: Originally Posted by Overmind View Post
REed 24 Armors/Mod @20% - Expected REs: 4.8 (5) - Real REs: 2 (-240%) - In %: 8.3
REed 19 Heavy and Medium armors @20% - Expected REs: 3.8 (4) - Real REs: 1 (-380%) - In %: 5.26
REed 27 Barrles/Augs @20% - Expected REs: 5 (5.4) - Real REs: 2 (-270%) - In %: 7.4
REed 7 Medpaks @20% - Expected REs: 1 (1.4) - Real REs: 0 (FAIL) - In%: 0% (ignored).
You need to go back and re-study percentage differences. Really, seriously.

Expected: 4.8, actual 2: The actual percentage is (2/4.8)*100 = 41.7%, or -58.3% compared to expectation.
Expected: 3.8, actual 1: The actual percentage is (1/3.8)*100 = 26.3%, or -73.7% compared to expectation.
Expected: 5.4, actual 2: The actual percentage is (2/5.4)*100 = 37.0%, or -63.0% compared to expectation.
Expected: 1.4, actual 0: The actual percentage is (0/1.4)*100 = 0.0%, or -100.0% compared to expectation.

It's still a bit disappointing, but in no way impossible. And maybe it's a display bug in the tooltip...

Overmind's Avatar


Overmind
03.27.2015 , 07:57 AM | #3
I had something else in mind with those -NNN%.

Practical probability is plain and correct, that's whats actually relevant.

7 instead of 20 means almost x3 difference.

JediQuaker's Avatar


JediQuaker
03.27.2015 , 09:03 AM | #4
Then again, I've had many instances where I've gotten a schematic within the first 2 RE's. Yesterday I had to RE 12 blue augments to get the purple schematic. At the same time, I was RE'ing some green armor to get the augment kits and I got the blue schematic twice from only 6 RE's
Swings and round-abouts, as they say.

It's probabilities, *****es.
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Sasaatan's Avatar


Sasaatan
03.27.2015 , 09:20 AM | #5
I also have experiences where the gain seems notable better than percentage. Maybe it is psychological but it MAY be affected by being a subscriber vs F2P.

In general I consider it too easy to get good schematics. It should NOT be just grinding to get X schematic, some luck feels much more rewarding. If your really-really-really want that schematic then current RE does give you that eventually. Personally, the game experience should be more unique per char and getting everything you want does not fit there. I'm definitely against making the rolls dependent on previous rolls and guaranteeing a schematic by N rolls.

If there should be adjustments to RE then it should be made MORE difficult to get schematics (fewer drops, smaller %) and custom-crafted EQ should be notably better than in-game drops (or god forbid - orange EQ). Right now there is very little drive to look for "that famous famous guy making best boots", definitely not until end-game.

MSchuyler's Avatar


MSchuyler
03.27.2015 , 10:49 AM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by Overmind View Post
Reverse engineering is still bad.
As it was very long time ago, probabilities of RE mean nothing.
Practically it is possible infinitely RE without getting a schematic.

Yes, probabilities mean nothing since the chance is the same of 5,10 or 20% for the first item, for the second item, for 1000000th item since the RE events are unrelated.
Your insistence on this is proof our science and mathematics education system is a failure. Probabilities mean EVERYTHING, your "experiments" nothwithstanding. You really need to take a statistics class and not let your emotions get in the way of your understanding. Modern science would not exist without probability. Indeed, that's what Quantum Mechanics is all about.

TL'DR: Working as intended.

CheaterLL's Avatar


CheaterLL
03.27.2015 , 11:15 AM | #7
Come back when you re'd 1000 items. 10000 would be even better.
I know people who got 10+ win streaks and I had a 70 fail streak once.
The more items you re the closer you will get to the actual %age.
CheaterLL, GM <you always wipe together>
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Amaste's Avatar


Amaste
03.27.2015 , 11:18 AM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by Overmind View Post
Reverse engineering is still bad.
As it was very long time ago, probabilities of RE mean nothing.
Practically it is possible infinitely RE without getting a schematic.

Yes, probabilities mean nothing since the chance is the same of 5,10 or 20% for the first item, for the second item, for 1000000th item since the RE events are unrelated.


Few days ago I REd 44 items to get one schematic.

I won't count this one in the below today's test:

REed 24 Armors/Mod @20% - Expected REs: 4.8 (5) - Real REs: 2 (-240%) - In %: 8.3
REed 19 Heavy and Medium armors @20% - Expected REs: 3.8 (4) - Real REs: 1 (-380%) - In %: 5.26
REed 27 Barrles/Augs @20% - Expected REs: 5 (5.4) - Real REs: 2 (-270%) - In %: 7.4
REed 7 Medpaks @20% - Expected REs: 1 (1.4) - Real REs: 0 (FAIL) - In%: 0% (ignored).

Calculated practical probability from the first 3: 6.987% chance for a drop and that's ignoring the last one that is total zero and the initial one a few days ago that is 0.45%. Even so, that's under 7%.

Please explain. When does that 20% actually happen ?

Anyway, a system that increases the probability of a RE for the same item that failed to RE is needed. The current system is just too cheated, just like I re-re-re confirmed above.
When you have a large enough sample pool to draw worthwhile conclusions from. >.>

A percentage based success system doesn't factor in previous attempts when it rolls. Each attempt is 20%. Since we're dealing with percentages and RNGesus for this stuff, the total amount of items you reverse engineered for your numbers need to be higher than 77 spread over 4 different item groups if you want it to show anything useful. >.>

There's almost always going to be a wide variation in a small sample like that just based on odds, just ask players of Aion about enchantment and manastone success rates (if they haven't blocked it out due to PTSD. 80% success rate proven over several different 10,000 enchantment attempt tests for stones 25 levels higher than a fabled weapon's level. Still saw people hit the 20% 10+ times in a row.). Its when you have large samples where the percentages begin to pan out; 7 to 24 tries per item type just isn't anywhere near enough to base data off of.
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psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.27.2015 , 12:09 PM | #9
Quote: Originally Posted by Overmind View Post
Please explain. When does that 20% actually happen ?
When you RE several hundreds to several thousand items for schematics you will see that overall the rate of success is roughly 20%
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AlrikFassbauer's Avatar


AlrikFassbauer
03.27.2015 , 12:57 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
When you RE several hundreds to several thousand items for schematics you will see that overall the rate of success is roughly 20%
Problem is : Will I be able to endure that ? I mean REing "several thousand" items ?

At one point psychology strikes and makes me wan t to give up.
Others, meanwhile, are headstrong enough to keep on going.

Result : People are different. And thus they react differently on the same incidents.
Complex minds
will create
Complex problems.