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Reverse Engineering chance vs odds - Broken?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering chance vs odds - Broken?

PyroRobby's Avatar


PyroRobby
12.22.2013 , 04:59 PM | #1
When this game 1st launched i had a run of 50 green vibro knives not spawn a single pattern upgrade. Long story short on that, the ticket i opened asking about the RNG results and if it was a bug, was deleted and never answered. After quitting for over a year, due to annoying lacking customer service and all my friends leaving for the same reason, i returned to find that items now post the percent chance of a pattern upgrade through RE.

Today i ran 25 level 49 blue implants with my toon having a 410 crafting level. Neither did i gain crafting skill nor did the 10% chance spawn a new pattern out of 25 RE's.

Is this broken?

I understand chance vs odds. This seems broken though when it seems outside the norm of what normally happens. Is it too much to ask to have a bound added to the chance so RNG doesn't repeatedly make me lose the probability bet and get really annoyed at the loss?

My Expectations were:
1) An item sorted by level and showing the level number in yellow, would increment my skill level.
2) An item having research available and showing a 10% RE spawn chance, would produce at least one and maybe two pattern upgrades out of a run of 25 freshly crafted identical items waiting in my inventory for the RE run and new pattern spawning.
3) I understand chance vs odds. What i was expecting is what normally happens: a 10% chance has normally returned at least two upgrades within a run of 25. Only once, which was at the game release did i have a horrible experience of 50 not returning a single upgrade, from a green item. Now when 25 returns nothing i think the RNG is broken. (RNG - Random Number Generation)

Note: I do think this is a good game and have enjoyed playing portions of it again; but there are still aspects that annoy me, so i try to avoid them. I am a subscriber and also spend money on the cartel market. However the more annoyances i encounter, the less i am willing to invest in virtual items. That is i play for fun, not for a head-banging challenge or to be annoyed with bugs. Ultimately how much i spend will be based on how well i enjoy the game or if i just think it is full of bugs and lacking support.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.22.2013 , 07:21 PM | #2
You may not understand chance vs odds as much as you think. You need to be aware of several facts:
  1. a 10% chance of success is a 90% chance of failure. And it is the latter that needs your attention not the former
  2. attempts are completely independent from each other; no attempt has any impact on any other attempt (some believe it should; a "streak breaker")
  3. the odds of success only tip in your favor after 21 failures in a row; it is between the 21st (10.942%) and 22nd (9.848%) attempt where the chance of continued failure dips below that of one success (10%)
  4. the math is simple: take the base percentage chance of failure (90%) to the power of the number of attempts (in your case 25) and the result is the probability that a streak of that nature will happen. So 90%^25=7.179%. A small chance for sure, but one that is far from improbable.
  5. Continued failure does not reach the realm of statistical anomaly until the 60th failure in a row (0.18% chance of 60 failures in a row), but even then nearly 1 in 500 will experience that type of streak.
  6. 25 RE attempts is a nano-scopic sample. A few months ago, I ran ~1500 crew skill events (crafting, and gathering mission skill missions) across six characters with 26 companions to gauge the critical success rate and even that sample is small when compared to the 500,000 subs and 1.3 million F2P and preferred status accounts.

The good news is that with higher level crafted stuff, the chance to RE blue to purple was increased to 20%.

Also if you have a 410 skill, you should go to your trainer...there are new schematics waiting.
The Ortzid Legacy on The Harbinger
Car'beerd (Guardian) Dalkery (Scoundrel) Blairnah (Sage) Daellia (Merc) and 11 other characters
Understanding Crew Skills / High End Schematics / Best Crew Skills / Crew Skill Money Making / Reverse Engineering Rules / SWTOR Story to date

VIZIOO's Avatar


VIZIOO
12.22.2013 , 09:20 PM | #3
Has I said many many times..that 20% on reverse engineer need to be upgrade to least 40% -50%. Is not easy to earn credits in this game, and much less to accumulate commendation medals to purchase epic items. I don't care what anyone says or how much they try to defend this game with their stupid logic. If someone try to craft an item, after X -amount of times, it should get result...no excuses or logical BS explanations has to why the player didn't obtain the schematic.

To be honest: the only reason why I stay in this game is because I love Star Wars. But those creator from whatever the heck they're i.e. India, Canada, or some Community College...need to pull their heads out of their 3 point contact and stop making a grievances out this game.

PyroRobby's Avatar


PyroRobby
12.22.2013 , 09:27 PM | #4
Thank you for your feedback.

1) Yes i understand the math and the difference between chance and probability. Although thank you for showing the numbers. Normally i get satisfactory results which leaves me questioning when i get zero results and probably should have gotten a result. Even more so when normally i get 1 out of 10 for a 10% chance or at least 2 out of 25 if not 1 in 10. This had me thinking the design included a reasonable bounding of the probability so as not to have cases where the RNG could have one making and trashing scores of created items through RE to get zero results. So i asked if this was broken.
2) There are no implant available to me higher than 400; although there are stims available of level 410. So, looks like i have to make stims i don't want, to level so i have the next rank of implants. (YUK! bad design IMO)
3) If the case is the spawn is wholly based on probability and has no bounding to assure a player will not experience 25 to 50 or more successive tries without results, then that needs to change to assure a reasonable player experience. Mats are expensive or very time consuming to gather, to just throw away when the RNG is horribly against you. Very unattractive for game play experience IMO and repelling me from enjoying the game. So i asked if this was broken.

Where there are things i enjoy about this game there are things i find repelling. Each increment of repulsion makes me less likely to invest in more virtual items as it makes me think i am likely going to try other games until i fine the perfect game for me. Though i will still likely always return here and play until it gets annoying again.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.23.2013 , 12:21 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by VIZIOO View Post
Has I said many many times..that 20% on reverse engineer need to be upgrade to least 40% -50%. Is not easy to earn credits in this game, and much less to accumulate commendation medals to purchase epic items. I don't care what anyone says or how much they try to defend this game with their stupid logic. If someone try to craft an item, after X -amount of times, it should get result...no excuses or logical BS explanations has to why the player didn't obtain the schematic.

To be honest: the only reason why I stay in this game is because I love Star Wars. But those creator from whatever the heck they're i.e. India, Canada, or some Community College...need to pull their heads out of their 3 point contact and stop making a grievances out this game.
Even though you will probably yell at me for trying...here goes nothing

It is INCREDIBLY easy to make credits in this game:

- run any single set of daily quests (Black Hole, Section X, CZ-198, Makeb, Oricon, etc) which takes all of 30 minutes even during peak times and you can make 100k credits.
- send out companions on nothing but gathering skill missions (scavenging, bioanalysis, archeology), and post what you get on the GTM and you will double your investment (average per unit cost for running gathering missions is about 500 credits, those materials invariably sell for 1000+ credits per unit on the GTM
- craft anything blue quality, post it on the GTM, and you will make money (even the "top end" blues sell and profit because they are cheap to make and they require level 53 not 55 that makes them an intermediate step that many are willing to invest in).

If you want (faster) commendations role a tank or healer. queue times are shorter and so you run FPs faster. Is it the system's fault you're playing a DPS among thousands of others and therefore have to wait for queues? But oh...wait a second, instead of standing around the fleet you could be doing dailies and making money
The Ortzid Legacy on The Harbinger
Car'beerd (Guardian) Dalkery (Scoundrel) Blairnah (Sage) Daellia (Merc) and 11 other characters
Understanding Crew Skills / High End Schematics / Best Crew Skills / Crew Skill Money Making / Reverse Engineering Rules / SWTOR Story to date

Jenarie's Avatar


Jenarie
12.23.2013 , 01:01 PM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by PyroRobby View Post
My Expectations were:
1) An item sorted by level and showing the level number in yellow, would increment my skill level.
I don't think anyone specifically addressed this one yet although the end answer of getting new schematics was there.

There is a colored dot before the name and a level after the name. If you are leveling crafting as you level up they are often the same color so it is easy to confuse them but they are separate.
- The dot color determines if you can skill up on the item
- The level color shows the item's level in relation to your character's level

If you make something with a green, yellow or orange dot, you will always skill up - this isn't random.
Green gives you one skill-up, I believe yellow always gives two although not positive, orange always gives two.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.23.2013 , 01:46 PM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by Jenarie View Post
If you make something with a green, yellow or orange dot, you will always skill up - this isn't random.
Green gives you one skill-up, I believe yellow always gives two although not positive, orange always gives two.
Green there is a high probability of one skill point but it is not guaranteed.
Yellow guarantees one skill point with a chance for two
Orange yields two skill points.

The reason I know this (particularly regarding green) is because most crafting skills at 440 everything turns green, and on a couple of occasions (with different crew skills) I had to craft more than 10 green skill items to get to 450 (once I had to craft 12 and another I had to craft 15).
The Ortzid Legacy on The Harbinger
Car'beerd (Guardian) Dalkery (Scoundrel) Blairnah (Sage) Daellia (Merc) and 11 other characters
Understanding Crew Skills / High End Schematics / Best Crew Skills / Crew Skill Money Making / Reverse Engineering Rules / SWTOR Story to date

VIZIOO's Avatar


VIZIOO
12.23.2013 , 03:02 PM | #8
"[QUOTE=psandak;7056149]Even though you will probably yell at me for trying...here goes nothing "

You understood what I said. Still I think is ludicrous for a player to attempt reverse engineer a particular item 15 -20 times and still not been able to learn the schematic. Even at 20% no player should go through such inconvenience. I guess you like to rely on others to gear your toons. But hey, if spending a million credits or above on the GTN is what floats your boat, by all means continue to do so. I prefer a sense of independence by relying more on my toons.

Jenarie's Avatar


Jenarie
12.23.2013 , 04:08 PM | #9
OOPS! Thanks for correcting that - I've never noticed not getting the skill-up on green but I do remember a few times where I thought I should be a point or two higher than I ended up after a long run of crafting and just figured I was misremembering the start point.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
12.23.2013 , 06:44 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by VIZIOO View Post
"Even though you will probably yell at me for trying...here goes nothing "

You understood what I said. Still I think is ludicrous for a player to attempt reverse engineer a particular item 15 -20 times and still not been able to learn the schematic. Even at 20% no player should go through such inconvenience. I guess you like to rely on others to gear your toons. But hey, if spending a million credits or above on the GTN is what floats your boat, by all means continue to do so. I prefer a sense of independence by relying more on my toons.
I am one of the the most self-sufficient and frugal players you will ever hear of. I have six characters to cover all the crew skills (one of each of the crafting and every gathering and mission skill [some doubles and a triple]). The only time I have ever bought anything on the GTM for 1+ million credits for gearing was a few grade 31 item modifications and I sold the materials to make them (MMG, I-5s, and EEEs) on the GTM and netted a profit in the process . And that was this past summer; I have only bought specific cosmetic adaptive gear (from CM packs) since and never spent more than 50k on any one piece.

- even though I could: my JKG and JCS need hilts to finish them off with grade 31+, but I am OK with 30 and 28 respectively because I do not run "progression" ops with them (I do use them in "fun runs").

- But I have bought two hypercrates off the GTM (costing about 5 million each) because I have credits to burn , but I sold a lot of the individual items I got from those hypercrates (because I knew I would never use them) and profited

I scour the GTM for deals on materials constantly and refuse to buy above a set price per unit even if it means stalling my crafting (I would rather wait for my own crew skill missions to come in).

And without REALLY trying my legacy's net worth is about 55 million credits as of yesterday. I REALLY tried for a week (making about 15 million credits in the process) a few months ago and nearly burned out (the next two weeks I could barely stomach signing in to raid with my guild)...so I stopped.

"A penny saved is a penny earned" rings very true with me. Being self-sufficient with regard to crew skills is part of that. But I also am aware of the pitfalls of actively seeking certain schematics (best available; grade 31 at the moment), so I only take the 20% chance when the opportunity presents itself. Besides selling entry level (grade 28) "eldergame" stuff has served me VERY well.
The Ortzid Legacy on The Harbinger
Car'beerd (Guardian) Dalkery (Scoundrel) Blairnah (Sage) Daellia (Merc) and 11 other characters
Understanding Crew Skills / High End Schematics / Best Crew Skills / Crew Skill Money Making / Reverse Engineering Rules / SWTOR Story to date