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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

Zorash's Avatar


Zorash
02.14.2013 , 10:21 PM | #41
Quote: Originally Posted by Timonius View Post
Regardless of how the math is done - I think the RE numbers need a boost say 30% for green to blue and 15% from blue to purple. It's bad enough that time, money and ,material is wasted on green to blue for a presumably negligible market.

Oh well - it's time they did a major patch revision focusing on crafting/RE'ing.
That will create a huge influx of new items to the market decreasing the price of purple items. I see people complain all the time about crafting skills not making a lot of money, all you're doing with this idea is making the profit margin a lot smaller.

Timonius's Avatar


Timonius
02.14.2013 , 10:47 PM | #42
Quote: Originally Posted by Zorash View Post
That will create a huge influx of new items to the market decreasing the price of purple items. I see people complain all the time about crafting skills not making a lot of money, all you're doing with this idea is making the profit margin a lot smaller.
Point taken. If it's just profit on purple then perhaps leaving it where it is for that. I still think the green to blue rate needs tweaking even if, unfortunately, profits on those items would drop.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
02.15.2013 , 01:04 AM | #43
Quote: Originally Posted by Darth_Sweets View Post
Once again i will state that your dealing with a joint distribution where each distribution in very different from a binomial one we are talking about?
Absolutely. I wasn't trying to indicate that my rng test is apples to apples as the RE situation in crafting. It was more to indicate that my software could either be well written or poorly written, you just can't tell from only 400 data points.

I imagine that by now you've collected more data. Has there been any shift?

Arutar's Avatar


Arutar
02.15.2013 , 07:42 AM | #44
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
400 data points is not enough.

I don't seem to be able to communicate my point [...]
Actually you have made your point pretty well.

it is just that unfortunately many people have no interest in a rational explanaition (in this case based on actual math) and prefer to rather listen to their vague "feelings", how wrong they may actually be.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
02.15.2013 , 11:06 AM | #45
@Lodril and the OP for that matter.

I have been tracking my own RE attempts for the last couple of months. I track the overall number of attempts and the overall number of schematics gained. Across three characters, in three different crafting skills I have done 213 20% REs and 178 10% REs (ironically or not that is about the same number of total REs the OP has done). My results are as follows: 48 20% RE schematics gained (that's 22.54% success rate) and 18 10% RE schematics gained (that's 10.11% success rate). My data shows that the system is working better than expected.

Which one of us is right? the OP or me? I'll tell you...neither. it is far more likely that the true nature of the system falls somewhere in between. Right where it is supposed to be

FACT: Sample size is an important aspect of statistics. The larger the sample the more accurate the data. 400 REs from one player on one character is an insignificant sample size when compared to the hundreds of thousands of players performing millions, if not tens of millions of REs across all crafting crew skills done over the last year in this game.

This is why we who rail against the complainers use the small sample size argument so often.

HurricaneEagle's Avatar


HurricaneEagle
02.15.2013 , 01:13 PM | #46
It's 20% per RE.

When you RE Item 1-1, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-2, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-3, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
etc.
etc.
etc.

Not

When you RE Item 1-1, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-2, there's a 40% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-3, there's a 60% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-4, there's a 80% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-5, there's a 100% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.

jasonthelamb's Avatar


jasonthelamb
02.15.2013 , 02:03 PM | #47
I think that Biochem needs near 50% learn, or they need to make our crit produce two.

jasonthelamb's Avatar


jasonthelamb
02.15.2013 , 02:05 PM | #48
Quote: Originally Posted by HurricaneEagle View Post
It's 20% per RE.

When you RE Item 1-1, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-2, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-3, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
etc.
etc.
etc.

Not

When you RE Item 1-1, there's a 20% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-2, there's a 40% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-3, there's a 60% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-4, there's a 80% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
When you RE Item 1-5, there's a 100% you will learn schematic Adv Item 1.
But think of it like rolling a 10-sided dice, where 2 certain numbers will give you a good result, the more you roll, the higher the probability you come across one of the two numbers you want.

psandak's Avatar


psandak
02.15.2013 , 02:52 PM | #49
Quote: Originally Posted by jasonthelamb View Post
But think of it like rolling a 10-sided dice, where 2 certain numbers will give you a good result, the more you roll, the higher the probability you come across one of the two numbers you want.
Yes, you are correct that the more times you try, the less likely you are to continue to fail. However, that probability has no direct impact on success or failure of any given attempt; it is based on theoretical statistical analysis.

Chance of success for every attempt is 20%
Chance of eight failures in a row is 16.78% (80%^8)
So theoretically you have a better chance to succeed once than to fail eight times in a row.
Does that impact your chance of success after seven consecutive failures? No. Your chance of success is still 20%.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
02.15.2013 , 03:18 PM | #50
Quote: Originally Posted by jasonthelamb View Post
But think of it like rolling a 10-sided dice, where 2 certain numbers will give you a good result, the more you roll, the higher the probability you come across one of the two numbers you want.
This argument is bordering on the "Gambler's Fallacy" Here is a halfway decent explanation of that concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Note that people with the Gambler's Fallacy make casinos very happy.