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Reverse Engineering is not 20%

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering is not 20%

StrikePrice's Avatar


StrikePrice
03.03.2014 , 11:27 PM | #121
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
It's easy to remember the loosing streaks and harder to remember the winning streaks.

I recently had about 56 failures in a row, and was starting to get grumbly about it. I had to remind myself that two weeks ago I had 8 successes in 10 tries.

If you're not just resurrecting this thread to whine, and you actually think that it is bugged, the only thing you can do is put together a spreadsheet and log every RE attempt. When you have enough data, present it. Otherwise it just sounds as if you've fallen for some variation on the Gambler's fallacy.
What's the point? People will say the sample size is not big enough no matter how many I do. You really got more than 50 failures in a row and you think it's not bugged? 50 failures? The odds against getting 50 failures in a row are 99.99858% ... worse than 1 in 50,000.

There's a bug, no question about it.

rkjunior's Avatar


rkjunior
03.04.2014 , 12:28 AM | #122
You've just had bad luck.

The number of rolls has NO bearing on the outcome, as each instance is it's OWN. Think of it like rolling a pair of dice at a craps table. You have a certain % to roll a 6. This % does not change no matter how many times you rolls. Murphy's law makes you feel like if you roll 100 times, and you have a 20% chance of rolling, means you'll see that 6 - 20 times but it doesn't work that way.

RE 1 - you have a 1/5 chance of RE'ing
RE 2 - you have a 1/5 chance of RE'ing
RE 3 - you have a 1/5 chance of RE'ing
....and so on.


It doesn't matter if you RE 1000 things, you still have a 1/5 chance on each INDIVIDUAL RE, not as a whole.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
03.04.2014 , 01:24 AM | #123
Quote: Originally Posted by StrikePrice View Post
What's the point? People will say the sample size is not big enough no matter how many I do. You really got more than 50 failures in a row and you think it's not bugged? 50 failures? The odds against getting 50 failures in a row are 99.99858% ... worse than 1 in 50,000.

There's a bug, no question about it.
I haven't kept a precise spreadsheet in over a year now, so I'm not going to try and convince you it's not bugged.

I will say this. I have 16 alts with crafting professions at 450. I've been playing this game for over two years. I have every available low endurance 9-49 armoring, mod, barrel and hilt reversed to purple, as well many enhancements, and a number of 63, 69 and 72 items. So, let's just say I've spent some time doing reverse engineering.

Every single losing streak has balanced out with a winning streak. The first time I ran into an extensive losing streak I tried to "prove" it was broken. So I started my spreadsheet. The longer I went, the closer the average came out to 20%

But frankly, it sounds like you're just here to vent. I have no doubt that you don't want to hear any of this.

Fidelicatessen's Avatar


Fidelicatessen
03.04.2014 , 03:33 AM | #124
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
I haven't kept a precise spreadsheet in over a year now, so I'm not going to try and convince you it's not bugged.

I will say this. I have 16 alts with crafting professions at 450. I've been playing this game for over two years. I have every available low endurance 9-49 armoring, mod, barrel and hilt reversed to purple, as well many enhancements, and a number of 63, 69 and 72 items. So, let's just say I've spent some time doing reverse engineering.

Every single loosing streak has balanced out with a winning streak. The first time I ran into an extensive loosing streak I tried to "prove" it was broken. So I started my spreadsheet. The longer I went, the closer the average came out to 20%

But frankly, it sounds like you're just here to vent. I have no doubt that you don't want to hear any of this.
The OP (or the person who resurrected this necro thread) is just here to vent, and does not understand RNG theory. Every 6 months someone complains that RE is bugged and RNG theory must be explained to them.

As a side point, this:
LOSE: (verb) to misplace something or come out on the bad end of a gambling match; example: "I'm on a losing streak."
LOOSE: (adjective) floppy; example: "That dude is crazy--I think he has a screw loose."

Thubb's Avatar


Thubb
03.04.2014 , 06:15 AM | #125
Quote: Originally Posted by Darth_Sweets View Post
after going through too many materials i decided to check the reverse engineering rate of going greens to blues which is stated to be at 20% according to the tool tip in game. I have collected the number of reverse engineering attempt and success that i have had going from a green to a blue, I have not counted the times where I RE'ed and there was no chance of a plan to me gained.

Reverse Reverse
Engineering Engineering
Attempts Successes
9 - 1
15 - 2
5 - 1
6 - 1
1 - 1
5 - 0
5 - 1
5 - 0
10 - 1
19 - 5
15 - 4
8 - 2
10 - 2
10 - 2
1 - 1
24 - 7
10 - 0
7 - 2
5 - 0
9 - 2
10 - 1
5 - 1
5 - 0
10 - 1
10 - 0
10 - 1
10 - 1
10 - 0
4 - 1
15 - 0
9 - 2
10 - 1
5 - 0
5 - 0
5 - 0
10 - 1
5 - 1
10 - 1
10 - 0
5 - 0
2 - 1
5 - 0
10 - 0
7 - 1
13 - 2
8 - 1
15 - 2

This gives a 13.4 percent mean. Using a standard confidence calculation with 99.7 percent boundary if 20 percent is the true mean as defined in the tool tip the average for the sample above should be between 14.3 to 25.7 percent. With the mean sample is out of the 99.7 boundary that mean that it is almost impossible that the 20 percent is the true rate of getting a new plan.
/5char

MaximilianPower's Avatar


MaximilianPower
03.04.2014 , 09:02 AM | #126
Quote: Originally Posted by Fidelicatessen View Post
The OP (or the person who resurrected this necro thread) is just here to vent, and does not understand RNG theory. Every 6 months someone complains that RE is bugged and RNG theory must be explained to them.
This.

RE is not broken.
Hey, Barsen'thor Bill
What did you kill
Barsen'thor Bill

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psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.04.2014 , 09:31 AM | #127
Quote: Originally Posted by StrikePrice View Post
What's the point? People will say the sample size is not big enough no matter how many I do.
You are right that even a thousand attempts is considered a small sample, but it is far more significant than the typical 20-50 most forum-goers use to "prove" their point. So if you do a thousand attempts and actually post your data others will listen. But if Khevar and I (and others) are right, you will find that the RE RNG is in fact working just fine.

Gobgrot's Avatar


Gobgrot
03.05.2014 , 06:20 AM | #128
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
Do you REALLY think that if the system were actually broken that BioWare would not fix it? If so, you better get your tinfoil hat out
Ok, Ive tried to stay out of this but I cant anymore. You're making this statement about EA??? (Bioware isnt even a company any more). The company with one of the worse records for customer service in the world. Not to mention their being voted the worse company in America 2 years in a row. You really believe they would be honest and tell us it is broken or just deny it like all the other bugs they wont acknowledge. Why fix this one thing out of all the broken code in this game.

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Fazaani
03.05.2014 , 07:38 AM | #129
I must..... ROAR!!!!
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Firkraag, also known as Lord Jierdan Firkraag, was a red dragon living in the Windspear Hills in Amn and masquerading as a human noble.
Around since 2008

psandak's Avatar


psandak
03.05.2014 , 09:03 AM | #130
Quote: Originally Posted by Gobgrot View Post
Ok, Ive tried to stay out of this but I cant anymore. You're making this statement about EA??? (Bioware isnt even a company any more). The company with one of the worse records for customer service in the world. Not to mention their being voted the worse company in America 2 years in a row. You really believe they would be honest and tell us it is broken or just deny it like all the other bugs they wont acknowledge. Why fix this one thing out of all the broken code in this game.
Nice selective quoting. Did you actually bother to read my whole post? In short, random =/= even and no one player's sample is going to be accurate, but Bioware...oh wait I'm sorry EA has the data we don't.