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R/E frustrations


DarthScruffy's Avatar


DarthScruffy
01.23.2013 , 03:01 AM | #21
Quote: Originally Posted by craic_fox View Post
I've had some pretty bad runs lately, so I was wondering if that 20% is static or if it is a base chance that's subject to other modifiers? I've also noticed that I tend to get better results when I RE a bio stack than when I RE individual armour or synth items etc. It's probably just the luck of the roll, but it does appear that I get better results from a stack of 5 than from 5 individuals.
Depending on how they set up their RNG it may not be random.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
01.23.2013 , 11:59 AM | #22
Quote: Originally Posted by Facime View Post
...

As for those of you saying its a re-roll each time. I understand that, but Im wondering how many of you might not understand odds and statistics. The way it works is like this: Statistically I have a one in 5 chance of hitting a schematic. That means that the more times I attempt and fail, the greater my odds are that I will hit on the next attempt...statistically speaking of course. When you dont hit after 30 or 40 attempts, either the mechanic is broken or you are deep nito a statistical anomally.

If you flipped a coin 10 times and hit heads every time, wouldnt you question whether or not the coin was "rigged"?

...
I apologise in advance for being harsh here, but do YOU understand statistics? You need a large enough sample size for any sort of "dice roll" statistics to be meaningful.

100 attempts? Nope
1,000 attempts? Nope
10,000 attempts? Better, but not really enough.
100,000 attempts? More likely to statistically average out.
1,000,000 attempts? Now we're talking.

Oh, and here's someone flipping a coin 10 times in a row:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08

And that only required 1,000 flips to find an unbroken set of 10 times landing on the same side. How many RE's are happening on your sever besides yours? All of these need to be taken into account for your statistics.

And remember, nobody comes to the forum to complain: "Hey, I just RE'ed 3 times in a row and got a schem each time, that doesn't match the 20% tooltip!"

DarthOvertone's Avatar


DarthOvertone
01.23.2013 , 12:51 PM | #23
I had 31 attempts on Resolve Armoring 16 the other day, and I thought that was bad. lol
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Facime's Avatar


Facime
01.23.2013 , 04:57 PM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
I apologise in advance for being harsh here, but do YOU understand statistics? You need a large enough sample size for any sort of "dice roll" statistics to be meaningful.

100 attempts? Nope
1,000 attempts? Nope
10,000 attempts? Better, but not really enough.
100,000 attempts? More likely to statistically average out.
1,000,000 attempts? Now we're talking.

Oh, and here's someone flipping a coin 10 times in a row:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08

a statistical anomaly, requiring 1000 coin flips to prove its possible, isnt proof of anything relevant here. In fact it proves the rule, because Id bet on his 11th toss it hit tails because the ODDS were stacked against him. For all we know, he hit tails 10 times in a row right after that. Thats the way odds work. If my experience was just an anamoly, then so be it. Does it hurt anything to ask the question here?

Of course the larger the sample size the more accurate the results. DUH! But that doesnt alter the simple FACT that the more times you break the odds, the greater your chance on the next attempt. Huge sample sizes may in fact prove the STATISTICS correct for R/E, but odds are odds and in a RNG system, when the odds APPEAR to break down, I start to question them.

Quote:
How many RE's are happening on your sever besides yours? All of these need to be taken into account for your statistics
Statistically, I agree, but none of that alters my ODDS. Someone elses good run of luck doesnt somehow increase my odds of failing. That not how it works man.

Im not interested in getting into some kind of pissing match with you about this. If you dont have something useful to add to the conversation please feel free to ignore the topic and move on. Im more interested in hearing a DEV say they've looked at this recently and can verify with THIER metrics that the system is working as intended and that relogging these seeming long odds breaking runs are simply bad luck and not a broken mechanic of the game.


Remeber this is an admittedly buggy game still. The fact that I relogged and "fixed" my concern may have been pure chance, or it may have reset a broken mechanic. Id like to see others post here if they are able to duplicate the result.

If after say 25 or 30 failures, try relogging and post if you hit in the next run of 5.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
01.23.2013 , 05:55 PM | #25
Facime, I'm sorry, I wasn't trying to start a fight.

I've just seen many posts over the past year about people that are worried that RE was broken. Often times, the poster has the gambler's fallacy. This is often followed by talking about statistics.

When you say "I'm wondering how many of you might not understand odds and statistics", and are expecting that because you had a bad run your next roll is more likely for you to succeed, it sounds like you are suffering from the Gambler's Fallacy yourself.

Each "roll" is independent of any other roll. It doesn't matter how many previous failures or successes there were. The next roll is exactly a 20% of success, and an 80% chance of failure.

The only time odds come into the equation is when looking at large amounts of data.

Wayyyy back, I was having a bad run and got worried about this myself. I started to keep a spreadsheet of every green -> blue and every blue -> purple. The longer I went, the closer I came to the expected 20% (or 10% on high-level purples).

In the many posts complaining about RE, no developer has EVER responded to assure players that the math and the programming are functioning as expected. But other players have done tests to show (within reason) that it appears to be working.

I can understand that you're worried that the RE is broken. However, it isn't valid to look at a small sample size and say that statistics are showing that you should have gotten a successful RE by now.

Edit: looking over your post again, this stood out (emphasis added by me)
Quote: Originally Posted by Facime View Post
... because Id bet on his 11th toss it hit tails because the ODDS were stacked against him. For all we know, he hit tails 10 times in a row right after that. Thats the way odds work ...
This is, in fact, the gamblers fallacy.

DaShuk's Avatar


DaShuk
01.23.2013 , 07:41 PM | #26
It seems to work in odd ways for me. Been trying to R/E a bunch of stuff with my trooper lately with armormech. It seems that I nearly always get a new schematic within 2-3 tries with gloves, belt or bracers or augments, but if I try to R/E chest or leg pieces, it's either taking forever or I never get them. Honestly with the gloves and belts I'm getting the purple schems unlocked literally within 2-3 R/Es, but have yet to unlock a purple piece of armor, either chest or leggings.

tanktest's Avatar


tanktest
01.23.2013 , 08:14 PM | #27
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
The biggest problem is player mentality - we always remember the bad streak runs and forget when we got three in a row. The good and the bad balance out over a LONG period of time AND across ALL players who RE; you may be in the middle of a bad streak but the player righht next to you may have gotten two schems in a row.

Not me I hardly ever complain about Res I do , and most I do I get the schematic some times one try ,sometimes 15 ether way if I want that Schematic I don't give up till I get it .. isn't that the thrill of it all seeing those big green letters ...
I will say thu latly I don't get as many crtis but its not a complaint because when I do I make close to 10 mil off the crits so not a complaint , l love how the trades work in this game and am a little worried at how bad the nerfs are gonna be in rhe expac , that worries me more then no REed Schematics ...

tanktest's Avatar


tanktest
01.23.2013 , 08:21 PM | #28
Quote: Originally Posted by Holinyx View Post
lol you guys obviously never did skillups in Everquest crafting. 100+ combines for 1 skill up was pretty common. oh and you had to click drag all of your materials into the craft box. some of the recipes had 9 items. ugh.

yeah REing sucks....but it could be much, much worse.

I do and did , if I remember right one time a player got pissed at me excuse the word I can't think of better word to explain , because he gave me the mats for one of high end crafts in EQ1 and it failed didn't give me a thing or him and he even reported me, I had just told him it may fail he may lose it all . ...

Facime's Avatar


Facime
01.23.2013 , 08:51 PM | #29
Khevar, one word. Probability

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
01.23.2013 , 09:04 PM | #30
Quote: Originally Posted by Facime View Post
Khevar, one word. Probability
Have you read the article I linked? What are your thoughts on it?