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C2-N2 stopped critting (engineering sensor - cybertech)

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
C2-N2 stopped critting (engineering sensor - cybertech)

Kytea's Avatar


Kytea
12.20.2012 , 08:03 PM | #1
C2-N2 has the Engineering sensor and used to crit regularly on cybertech crafting.

He hasn't critted in 1-2 weeks, past the point of bad luck on RNG. Has anyone else noticed this? Any fix?
When I select him for crafting, the +5 cybertech crit text is there in the crafting window. It just stopped critting.

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
12.20.2012 , 10:58 PM | #2
Quote: Originally Posted by Kytea View Post
...

He hasn't critted in 1-2 weeks, past the point of bad luck on RNG. Has anyone else noticed this? ....
How many thousands of crafts have you done with him? That is the number that is needed to reasonably assume something other than RNG is at work.
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Kytea's Avatar


Kytea
12.21.2012 , 06:34 PM | #3
base chance of critting on Yellow, Green, and Gray Difficulty: 15%
maxed affection : +5% crit bonus
Eng droid sensor: +5% crit bonus on cybertech crafting

Crit bonus : 25%

Chance of not critting : 75%

Chance of not critting 50 times in a row: (0.75)^50 = 5.6e-7 or 0.00000056%

A few weeks ago my C2-N2 with the Eng droid sensor used to crit every 3-4-5 craftings. Now he hasn't critted at all for a long time. I was curious to see if others observed the same thing and if they found a fix for it.

Spankypoo's Avatar


Spankypoo
12.22.2012 , 01:41 AM | #4
I critted 3 times yesterday on 4 crafts with my imperial droid.

Suppose it shouldnt matter if its reb or imp

Cleux's Avatar


Cleux
12.22.2012 , 07:47 AM | #5
I would look at your math again. You only have a 16.5% chance of critting with the bonuses. You donít add the percent crit chances you have to multiply the chances. So to find out what your overall percent bonus would be do this 15(1.05)(1.05) = 16.5375% chance to crit.

You could then take that (.165375%) ^ 50 = 8.3848x10^-40 so out of 50 chances you have 1 in 1.19263x10^39 chance to crit. (8.3848x10^-40)^-1 = 1.19263x10^39 so that is your chances to do it 50 times.

So every time you craft an item, you have a 83.4625% chance not to crit. Which is approximately a 1 in 11119.76 chance out of 50 tries not to crit; odds are better that you want crit.

Sometimes you will crit one after another other times you want crit at all. I have run into that with my crafters.

Edit: After reading the link provided, I see the devs are using a different method of combining the crit chances. Which makes these calculations not match up to their numbers.

Kytea's Avatar


Kytea
12.22.2012 , 03:17 PM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by Cleux View Post
I would look at your math again. You only have a 16.5% chance of critting with the bonuses. You donít add the percent crit chances you have to multiply the chances. So to find out what your overall percent bonus would be do this 15(1.05)(1.05) = 16.5375% chance to crit.
Yes I did look at my math again, and it is correct.
I use information from a SWTOR Systems Designer:

http://www.swtor.com/blog/community-qa-april-27th-2012
Patrick Malott (Systems Designer): The baseline crit chance for crafting is dependent on the difficulty of the crafting action relative to your current crafting skill level. The difficulty is color coded in the crafting GUI.

Orange Difficulty: 10%

Yellow, Green, and Gray Difficulty: 15%

Companion Affection scales Crew Skill chance up to +5% at maximum affection.

A Companion Trait critical chance bonus of +1 or +5 is a percentage. Example: The Imperial Agent companion character Kaliyo grants a +2 bonus to Underworld Trading Critical. This is +2% bonus.

Using Kaliyo at maximum affection as an example, if she ran a green difficulty Underworld Trading mission for you, she would have a 22% chance to score a mission critical success.

Cleux's Avatar


Cleux
12.22.2012 , 06:26 PM | #7
I read what they have it your calculations are not correct.

Using the (0.75)^50 = 5.66322 x 10^-7 or 1 in 1,765,781 chance to fail

Your success would be (.25)^50 or 1 in 1.27 x 10^30 chance at success or let me do it this way. You have a 1 in 1,270,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 given 50 tries to crit.

So that is your chances of critting 50 times in a row.

The odds are stacked against you that you will fail more than you will succeed.

I was using what you stated in your original post and they are using a different way of combining probability then what would normally be done in statistics.

Kytea's Avatar


Kytea
12.22.2012 , 07:07 PM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by Cleux View Post
I read what they have it your calculations are not correct.
My calculation of 25% crit bonus was correct. Yours (16.5375%) was incorrect.

Quote: Originally Posted by Cleux View Post
Using the (0.75)^50 = 5.66322 x 10^-7 or 1 in 1,765,781 chance to fail
That is correct. 0.000056% probably of never critting in 50 tries
So you are saying it's extremely unlikely that someone will never crit in 50 tries. Which is the point of my OP. Thanks for the confirmation.

Quote: Originally Posted by Cleux View Post
Your success would be (.25)^50 or 1 in 1.27 x 10^30 chance at success or let me do it this way. You have a 1 in 1,270,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 given 50 tries to crit.
No, that number is the chance to never crit in 50 tries. Irrelevant to the thread discussion. I'm not asking about critting 50 times in a row. Not sure where you get that impression.
Probably of never critting in 50 tries = 0.000056%
Probably of not [never critting in 50 tries] = ( 1-5.6e-7)= 99.9999944%
In other words, the probability of critting at least one in 50 tries is extremely high
The probability of never critting in 50 tries is extermely low

Quote: Originally Posted by Cleux View Post
The odds are stacked against you that you will fail more than you will succeed.
Well... yes, as has been stated:
25% of critting (correct bonus calculation)
75% chance of not critting
And you confirm that 75% is greater than 25%? This is obvious and does not need confirmation, and is not the topic.
The topic is not critting at all.

Cleux's Avatar


Cleux
12.22.2012 , 10:14 PM | #9
Quote: Originally Posted by Kytea View Post
My calculation of 25% crit bonus was correct. Yours (16.5375%) was incorrect.

I stated that the method you were using was correct following what the devs posted but not how normal statistics are calculated. Duh

Your calculations that were not correct was your raising .75 to the 50 power you had the wrong value and I see you have since went back and changed it to what I have posted.

That is correct. 0.000056% probably of never critting in 50 tries
So you are saying it's extremely unlikely that someone will never crit in 50 tries. Which is the point of my OP. Thanks for the confirmation.

So if you are saying it cant be done why are you complaining about the crits not going off? You have a percent every time you craft for it to crit but as you craft it does not become 100 percent.

No, that number is the chance to never crit in 50 tries. Irrelevant to the thread discussion. I'm not asking about critting 50 times in a row. Not sure where you get that impression.
Probably of never critting in 50 tries = 0.000056%
Probably of not [never critting in 50 tries] = ( 1-5.6e-7)= 99.9999944%
In other words, the probability of critting at least one in 50 tries is extremely high
The probability of never critting in 50 tries is extermely low

How is 50 times irrelevant to the thread it is your thread and you used it so it is very relevant to the thread. i am using your numbers.


Well... yes, as has been stated:
25% of critting (correct bonus calculation)
75% chance of not critting
And you confirm that 75% is greater than 25%? This is obvious and does not need confirmation, and is not the topic.
The topic is not critting at all.
How can the thread not be about criting when the title of the thread is "C2-N2 stopped critting (engineering sensor - cybertech) Your entire post is about C2-N2 not critting.

You just have not been lucky is all that is the luck of the draw. Sometimes life is not fair deal with it and move on complaining about it on the forums isn't going to change things.

Kytea's Avatar


Kytea
12.22.2012 , 10:24 PM | #10
I wasn't complaining, I was asking if others have observed C2-N2 not critting at all recently, with the Engineering droid sensor.
Like every game, this game has bugs and when you observe something that feels like a bug, it is normal to discuss it on forums to see if others have experienced it, and if someone has found a fix.

It is extremely improbable to not crit 50 times in a row, and amidst your off-track comments you keep confirming what I am saying.
Thank you.