The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

Thanks for all the responses. We are lapsing back into non useful speculation. Please stick to the topic.

The thread set out to answer TWO questions.

First, how does SWTOR compare today subscription wise to other most popular MMO's that have the same payment model using the most accurate numbers available without resorting to speculation. Since we can only give a range for SWTOR numbers the responses that pinpoint them can be ignored, they are useless.

Second, of the MMO's that are targeting the same audience with the same payment structures how have they fared in the marketplace since 2008 with a focus on first year subscription retention.

I do want to conted that 2008 is such an arbitrary number. The reliability of statistics is based on how large the sample population is. Since 2008, there have only been 12 games of this type that are western based. Of these one is already defunct, and only four have these numbers available. The sample size is just too small to get any real comparison. Please, reconsider the parameters of your postulation.

That doesn't invalidate my post.
FACT: sold 2.4 million copies
FACT: 1.7 million subs
Where did the missing 700,000 copies go?

Having worked in a retail electronics store, the home warehouse, or in our case regional warehouses, would buy and store multiple copies to be distributed to each outlet. This purchase in bulk is factored into sales of a product. In some cases we would store up to 3 years worth of a product, depending on how much room it occupied in the warehouse. All the ways I cited are valid, within the conversation. I did forget to include purchased by a consumer, but not used for one reason or another. The only supposition is what happened to each individual copy of the said 700k copies. As a whole, it is factual.

This is exactly what I am presenting. When you analyze something you give the data you are using to base your conclusions upon.

The data itself and the conclusions with the 1. and 2. numbers points are the absolute facts that I'm using as framework for discussion taken directly from the data shown.

Everything else that is typed is my interpretation of the data which is a standard model when presenting something like this.

From the data we can form a view of WHY the market has been experiencing a downward trend in each release since 2008 now that the trend has been established.

Specifically this can also be used a reference for talking about the health of the game compared to the market rather than guessing that the game will shut down next year based on feeling and conjecture.

Then I would say your analysis seems very plausable. I also find the contention that the market has shrunk, for lack of a better word interesting.

I expect that the next report will be a lower sub count than the last, if they even mention current numbers, but this doesn't concern me as much anymore because of the new income model.

Keep in mind these numbers are western subscriber only. WoW has an even more lucrative China operation that beefs up the overall number of their subs.

If SWTOR can roll out a game to China we won't have to worry about revenue.

Based on the data from http://www.mmodata.net/ we can see the total number of MMO subscriptions and accounts across all of the games in which they have a subscription number formulated and the trend over time.

From the start of the MMO craze to 2009 the market was growing at a pretty substantial rate having nearly doubled from 2006 to 2009. In 2009 we reached a high water mark of about 22.1 million subs.

Then something unexpected happened. The number stagnated and by the last report was down to 20.5 million. Previously there had never been a full year where the industry lost players overall.

Something has changed in MMO's recently. The data supports this. We can debate what it was and why it's happening.

Games across the board are reporting a loss. Even the console titles are. Its not limited to MMOs.

Very true, I forgot this was only western sub numbers. Still, a large number of those china subscriptions and I hate to put them in this spot but, many are gold farmer subscriptions. I calculate at least numbers in the thousands for those, this is pure speculation on my part.

Do you have data to prove that? I won't disagree with the statement but I'd like to see something that shows this.

I know they say that consumer spending on point of sale gaming purchases is down all the time, yet MMO's seemed unaffected by the trend for years.