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If you plan to RE X items, how do you calculate the odds you'll get at least 1 schem?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
If you plan to RE X items, how do you calculate the odds you'll get at least 1 schem?

Noobishlord's Avatar


Noobishlord
10.28.2012 , 07:53 AM | #11
In short, it's like a coin flip then. You got a chance of heads or tails, but each flip has its own chance of heads or tails, and doesn't really give a crap whether the last flip was heads or tails.

Guess I'll just keep spam making things, and RE'ing them as they come until I get an upgrade. I can always cancel what my crew are making and get all the goodies back, so it's not like I'm really wasting any materials.
Swooping is bad... unless you are the swooper.

Ognajd's Avatar


Ognajd
10.28.2012 , 10:46 AM | #12
Ignorance is bliss.

TheRealCandyMan's Avatar


TheRealCandyMan
10.29.2012 , 11:34 AM | #13
Quote: Originally Posted by killahcheese View Post
wow nice calculation.
So is this saying that for ANY item you RE, it increase the chance of getting schematic?
No, you treat each attempt at an RE independently from each other.

TheRealCandyMan's Avatar


TheRealCandyMan
10.29.2012 , 11:46 AM | #14
Quote: Originally Posted by Noobishlord View Post
In short, it's like a coin flip then. You got a chance of heads or tails, but each flip has its own chance of heads or tails, and doesn't really give a crap whether the last flip was heads or tails.

Guess I'll just keep spam making things, and RE'ing them as they come until I get an upgrade. I can always cancel what my crew are making and get all the goodies back, so it's not like I'm really wasting any materials.
Sort of, but you honestly have to take a statistics course to get a better grasp on the situation. Even though each RE is independent from each other, the more you RE the higher the chance you will learn that recipe.

Take a coin flip for example, each flip of the coin doesn't effect another flip but the odds that you will have 8 heads out of 10 is very low. Here's a link which helps to explain it.

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/proba...dependent.html

In the case of REing, this would fall under the "Two or More Events" category. We can set up a simple calculation which will give us the odds of you NOT learning a schematic. Lets assume you have 8 mats you are going to RE and the chance you wont learn a schematic is 80% for all of them. You would set up the equation like this:

(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8)

which gives you a result of 16.7772%. This means that theoretically you will have a 16.8% chance of NOT learning a schematic if you RE 8 items. Of course, 8 items is an extremely low sample size so you will often see irregularities.

Totaltrash's Avatar


Totaltrash
10.31.2012 , 05:20 PM | #15
Quote: Originally Posted by Arkerus View Post
No.

Every individual roll is 20%. No matter how many times you did it before, it's only 20% each roll.

You chance, OVER TIME, is increased as odds say eventually you will hit the schematic. However each individual roll is 20% regardless of anything that has every happened before it.


This the classic gambler fallacy.
^ Forget all the fancy calculations in the thread, this guy got it right!

GnatB's Avatar


GnatB
10.31.2012 , 06:37 PM | #16
Quote: Originally Posted by Arkerus View Post
Your chance, OVER TIME, is increased as odds say eventually you will hit the schematic. However each individual roll is 20% regardless of anything that has every happened before it.
Not really. It's unlikely you'll go on a long streak of failures, but just because you HAVE gone on a long streak of failures in no way impacts the odds of future success.

Here's a depressing thought for all you crafters. For those 10% success items, the odds of getting a success on your next attempt (10%) is just about the same as the odds your next attempt will be the first in a string of 22 failures. (9.8%)

Each and every time you RE. Depressed much?

edit: and P.S. My suggestion is whenever possible, never try to RE a single item at a time. Set up 5 *different* items in your crafting queue(s), so you aren't wasting mats if you happen to get the RE after the first one... and so you aren't wasting time changing characters so often by only having 1 item in the queue. Only when you're down to very few worthwhile schematics left to learn should you be either doing multiples of 1, or only having 1 item in the queue.

Corporal_Armstro's Avatar


Corporal_Armstro
10.31.2012 , 07:11 PM | #17
Never tell me the odds!

.2
.24
.288
.3456
.41472
.497664
.5971968
.71663616
.859963392
1.03195607

or you could just look at it simply and go 5 x .2 = 1

If the odds are in your favor you should at least see your schematics by your tenth attempt. Not that this will help you in the game in any way as each roll is independent of the last. Then again it really depends on how you look at it.

Skodan's Avatar


Skodan
11.01.2012 , 12:33 PM | #18
Quote: Originally Posted by Corporal_Armstro View Post
Never tell me the odds!

.2
.24
.288
.3456
.41472
.497664
.5971968
.71663616
.859963392
1.03195607

or you could just look at it simply and go 5 x .2 = 1

If the odds are in your favor you should at least see your schematics by your tenth attempt. Not that this will help you in the game in any way as each roll is independent of the last. Then again it really depends on how you look at it.
what are your numbers?!?

its 20% each time.

.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20

this never changes
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ML_DoubleTap's Avatar


ML_DoubleTap
11.01.2012 , 01:49 PM | #19
Quote: Originally Posted by GnatB View Post
Not really. It's unlikely you'll go on a long streak of failures, but just because you HAVE gone on a long streak of failures in no way impacts the odds of future success.

Here's a depressing thought for all you crafters. For those 10% success items, the odds of getting a success on your next attempt (10%) is just about the same as the odds your next attempt will be the first in a string of 22 failures. (9.8%)

Each and every time you RE. Depressed much?

edit: and P.S. My suggestion is whenever possible, never try to RE a single item at a time. Set up 5 *different* items in your crafting queue(s), so you aren't wasting mats if you happen to get the RE after the first one... and so you aren't wasting time changing characters so often by only having 1 item in the queue. Only when you're down to very few worthwhile schematics left to learn should you be either doing multiples of 1, or only having 1 item in the queue.
Even MORE depressing is if you are chasing specific schematics. So, for tier 1(overkill,critical,redoubt) you have a 1 in 5 chance of simply learning a schematic and then a 1 in 3 chance of learning the one you want. So, if you are chasing an overkill chest piece you have a 1/15 chance of getting it per attempt, or a 93.3% chance of failure. So to get a specific item, it would take 24 times to tip the odds in your favor...of course that assuming you can relearn the same schematic which they fortunately fixed a while back. Being nearly 7 years removed from my now unused math major I can't remember how to work the probability without replacement on the second event.
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psandak's Avatar


psandak
11.01.2012 , 02:02 PM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by Skodan View Post
what are your numbers?!?

its 20% each time.

.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20

this never changes
His math is suspect, but he has the right idea. While the percentage chance of success never changes the probability of continued failure does go down. On the first attempt the odds of success versus failure are 20%/80%, however the odds of success versus seven failures in a row is all but a coin flip - 20% chance of success versus 20.97% chance of seven failures. And the odds of success are actually better than that of eight failures 20%/16.78%