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p = 0.000056


finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
08.15.2012 , 10:44 PM | #1
What is the probability of failing 93 consecutive 10% RE attempts in a row? 0.000056

That's what I just did. I've been trying for 3 days to craft some level 43 gloves for a guardian of mine. I've spent over 150,000 credits on three different characters to get the Zeyd-cloth and Quadranium I need, as well as occasionally some Hypertech Artifact Fragments and Phond Crystals. Overall, I've wasted 186 each of the Zeyd-cloth, Quadranium and Hypertech Artifact Fragments plus 372 Phond Crystals in doing so.

In case p = 0.000056 means nothing to you, let me express it another way. Let's pretend this game has 1 million subscribers. Let's say they all had 93 items with an RE chance for success of 10% available. Let's say they all RE'd every one of those 93 items. Of those 1 million people, 56 would have zero successes. That about as plain an explanation I can make of it.

What about attempt #94 for me? Yes, I finally got a success. I got a Vehemence schematic. My skill 400 crafter got a Vehemence schematic for a piece of tank gear. In case you do not recognize the prefix, Vehemence means that it adds Alacrity as a secondary. So, after all of that effort, I now have a piece of tank gear with Alacrity.

Thank you very much, BioWare.

I know that customer service reps read these. I've seen comments from customer service to the effect of "constructive criticism is appreciated, but please don't bash the game or the developers." Well, I have seen thread after thread of constructive criticism and thoughtful suggestions on crafting and crew skills and it all has fallen on deaf ears, blind eyes. The best that BioWare's developers have been able to manage is the Legacy of Crafting, a money sink that barely raises your chance to get an augment slot on gear, introduced at the same time that augmentation kits came into the game ... something with a 100% surety of giving an augment slot.

You've gotten more than your fair share of constructive criticism. It's time you let people know whether you are actually going to do something about it all.

So please, whoever is reading this for BioWare, share this little story with those developers responsible for crafting. Ask them if the time and credits I invested into getting a useless piece of gear was worthwhile, was entertaining, was fun. Ask them if this is a system they are proud to have developed. I really am interested in their feedback.

The problem, once again, is not that the system is broken. For me to get a result that would be seen in 56 out of 1 million instances is Working As Intended. Worse yet, the fact that I had an even longer string -- over 140 consecutive failures at 10%, or p < 0.00000039 -- is also the system Working As Intended. The system isn't broken: it's insulting and contemptuous.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
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MrNoRubber's Avatar


MrNoRubber
08.16.2012 , 03:49 AM | #2
get mad at bioware about it. sigh.

Metalmac's Avatar


Metalmac
08.16.2012 , 05:09 AM | #3
Well some genius at BioWare got this idea that crafting needs random numbers to make it fun.

So imagine you are making toast in your toaster and out pops burnt Pizza. Nice thought BioWare, but way off base.

Jayshames's Avatar


Jayshames
08.16.2012 , 05:09 AM | #4
You could have 1 million of each material and still have a chance of not getting a schematic, percentages are useless. The fact that schematics take so many reverses to make is good, it keeps GTN being flooded with materials and stops people selling things so damn cheap.

Sunjammer's Avatar


Sunjammer
08.16.2012 , 06:55 AM | #5
What beggars belief is that our crew have absolutely no ability to learn. Here they constructed and deconstructed the same item 93 times in a row and are (bizarrely) none the wiser! All that work an no improvement on their initial 10% chance whatsoever. And even after inspiration struck on that 94th attempt and they discovered a new and improved (if slightly strangely configured) version they are still none the wiser for the 95th attempt.

Was it Georg at the Guild Summit that mentioned they were looking at doing something address these long runs of bad luck? Either way we've heard nothing since despite the number of threads on this issue. Perhaps we need to give them a few ideas on ways to mitigate the impact of the RNG or add an element of "skill" into crew skills ...

How about simply increasing the RE chance by 1% for each consecutive attempt to RE an item? So long as you stick with the same item your chances improve but if you attempt to RE a different item your chance resets back down to the default. This would only require 2 pieces of data to be stored: the last item and the number of consecutive RE attempts on that item. This would improve our chances, caps the number of attempts at 80 or 90 and shows our crew learning (so long as you focus them on one item at a time). Hopefully it would take some of the sting out of a run of failed attempts.

How about increasing the base RE chance by 10% (for blues) or 5% (for purples) for each schematic of the next grade you've already discovered of that item? Trying to get your first blue from a green is 20%, second blue 30% base chance and final blue is 40% base chance. It would be similar for purples but the range for the base chance would be 10 to 30% with 5% increments. This doesn't require any additional information to be stored as the system already knows what schematics an item will produce and which of those you have already discovered. Hopefully it would take some of the sting of getting one of those, um, "less useful" purples (e.g. shotgun with shield and absorption bonuses).

How about replacing the Augment Slot Components produced by REing with some sort of Research Fragment? These would work in much the same way as Gift Fragments except there would be two ways to spend them. You could chose to exchange the fragments for Augment Slot Components (or perhaps use them to produced Augment Kits directly (thereby replacing Augment Slot Components)). Alternatively you could chose to use them to help you acquire a particular schematic, which might be implemented by a) using them to buff your next RE attempt (stackable?) or b) exchanged for a particular schematic through the UI or a vendor.

Personally I quite like the concept of Research Fragments as they act as a consolation prize (much like Augment Slot Components do now) but also because it could be taken even further and, for example, fragments could also be produced by crew skill missions. So instead of grinding UWT to get Snythweaving schematics (which seems like an arbitrary connection to me) I could grind specific Snythweaving research missions. These mission would produce some fragment and occasionally, on a critical success, a full schematic. This means I could collect the 263 Synthweaving schematics without wasted missions (since I always get some fragments); without receiving any Armourmech schematics; with far fewer doubles; and with a lot less frustration.
First Wave Specialist
Europa Squadron

plokolplok's Avatar


plokolplok
08.16.2012 , 07:19 AM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by finelinebob View Post
...
The problem, once again, is not that the system is broken. For me to get a result that would be seen in 56 out of 1 million instances is Working As Intended. Worse yet, the fact that I had an even longer string -- over 140 consecutive failures at 10%, or p < 0.00000039 -- is also the system Working As Intended. The system isn't broken: it's insulting and contemptuous.
For one, I like how constructive this post is. OP knows his math, and he understands that the current system is "working is intended" even with the abysmal streaks that he got while REing. (Unlike some people who posted here QQing that "the system is broken, the system is broken, no way it's 20%, i learned a schematic twice in a row, how is that 20%?, it must be broken...")

While working as intended or designed, I would agree that the current RE system needs some tweaking, to mitigate player loss, frustration, and QQ. A pure random system is too.. bursty, and it will and WILL produce good and baaad streaks. Here are some tweaks I thought of:
- Automatically grant a schematic once a player's streak goes beyond two or three standard deviations. This would be a quick & relatively easy fix, with the system only remembering how long the player has had any schematics learnt from REing a specific item or item group, and then giving a 100% chance to learn a schematic after passing that threshold for that item or item group. (Semi-random system)
- OR, an adaptive "learning" system while REing: Upon item RE, a stacking counter would tick on that specific item or item group that would just linearly/geometrically/logarithmically increase the chances of learning a new schematic.. It's like a learning-from-your-mistakes kinda thing from failed attempts on learning/developing new schematics. --More complex, but more realistic in a sense.

Until then, I'll just RE my way into this fog of pure randomness and just hope that an outlier player like our OP here would get bad streaks to balance out the not-so-bad streaks i'm getting.
(Statistically unsound but yeah ykwim.)
Quote:
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The Force make its face shine on you, and be gracious to you;
The Force turn fate towards you, and give you peace~.

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
08.16.2012 , 08:28 AM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by MrNoRubber View Post
get mad at bioware about it. sigh.
There is someone else I should get mad at about it?

Or, better yet, I shouldn't get mad at all, right? None of us should. We should just accept the horrible system they are force-feeding us without comment because "it's just a game" or "they never listen" or something like that. The fact that all of us who stick around here for a couple of years will each spend hundreds of dollars supporting these developers' livelihoods means nothing and we should just shut up and take our lumps for being stupid enough to pay for a subscription, I guess.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
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asbalana's Avatar


asbalana
08.16.2012 , 09:53 AM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by Sunjammer View Post
What beggars belief is that our crew have absolutely no ability to learn. Here they constructed and deconstructed the same item 93 times in a row and are (bizarrely) none the wiser! All that work an no improvement on their initial 10% chance whatsoever. And even after inspiration struck on that 94th attempt and they discovered a new and improved (if slightly strangely configured) version they are still none the wiser for the 95th attempt.

Was it Georg at the Guild Summit that mentioned they were looking at doing something address these long runs of bad luck? Either way we've heard nothing since despite the number of threads on this issue. Perhaps we need to give them a few ideas on ways to mitigate the impact of the RNG or add an element of "skill" into crew skills ...

How about simply increasing the RE chance by 1% for each consecutive attempt to RE an item? So long as you stick with the same item your chances improve but if you attempt to RE a different item your chance resets back down to the default. This would only require 2 pieces of data to be stored: the last item and the number of consecutive RE attempts on that item. This would improve our chances, caps the number of attempts at 80 or 90 and shows our crew learning (so long as you focus them on one item at a time). Hopefully it would take some of the sting out of a run of failed attempts.

How about increasing the base RE chance by 10% (for blues) or 5% (for purples) for each schematic of the next grade you've already discovered of that item? Trying to get your first blue from a green is 20%, second blue 30% base chance and final blue is 40% base chance. It would be similar for purples but the range for the base chance would be 10 to 30% with 5% increments. This doesn't require any additional information to be stored as the system already knows what schematics an item will produce and which of those you have already discovered. Hopefully it would take some of the sting of getting one of those, um, "less useful" purples (e.g. shotgun with shield and absorption bonuses).

How about replacing the Augment Slot Components produced by REing with some sort of Research Fragment? These would work in much the same way as Gift Fragments except there would be two ways to spend them. You could chose to exchange the fragments for Augment Slot Components (or perhaps use them to produced Augment Kits directly (thereby replacing Augment Slot Components)). Alternatively you could chose to use them to help you acquire a particular schematic, which might be implemented by a) using them to buff your next RE attempt (stackable?) or b) exchanged for a particular schematic through the UI or a vendor.

Personally I quite like the concept of Research Fragments as they act as a consolation prize (much like Augment Slot Components do now) but also because it could be taken even further and, for example, fragments could also be produced by crew skill missions. So instead of grinding UWT to get Snythweaving schematics (which seems like an arbitrary connection to me) I could grind specific Snythweaving research missions. These mission would produce some fragment and occasionally, on a critical success, a full schematic. This means I could collect the 263 Synthweaving schematics without wasted missions (since I always get some fragments); without receiving any Armourmech schematics; with far fewer doubles; and with a lot less frustration.
We both must be super smart since I had many of the same ideas. I particularly like the concept that you term research fragments.

My wife and I much enjoy the learning experience of having a statistically almost 0% event (long long fail streaks) happen over and over again. It teaches us something although we are still not sure what. We also value the lesson in managing expectations so that when we finally end up with the purple it invariably has a key stat that is useless to us.

Hopefully after the f2p stuff is implemented (with some of the ten million expected bugs fixed) and one or two of the scores of promised content updates are in place, the two or three crafters left playing will get some love. At that time you ideas may be looked at.

mattchanner's Avatar


mattchanner
08.16.2012 , 10:15 AM | #9
it has never taken me more then 10 re's to do a 10%. you are **** outa luck
U MAD? Let go of your Anger.
Look I made a Dumb fan video too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USRec...el_video_title

finelinebob's Avatar


finelinebob
08.16.2012 , 10:28 AM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by Jayshames View Post
The fact that schematics take so many reverses to make is good, it keeps GTN being flooded with materials and stops people selling things so damn cheap.
I hear this argument all the time. It's speculation that does not bear out. Randomness does not make things difficult to get across the player population. With the sheer numbers of people playing this game, "rare" only means "rare to you." Equipable gear has not flooded the GTN because it does not sell, even though anyone who can craft an item crafts it with equal stats. It takes zero skill to craft an item as best as it can be crafted. There is no general perception that even Artifact-quality gear is worth the price while leveling.

The things that sell best -- item modifications -- are the easiest to RE. There are only one Tier 1 and one Tier 2 schematics for them, and you have a 20% chance to get them. They have no useless variations to foul up the process. So the whole argument of "if they were easy to get, people would flood the market" is baseless: the most valuable items are the easiest to get, and the market has not been flooded.
Jedi Guardian JonBonJovi'wan
"Wanted: Dead or Alive"
Defenders of Monkeys - Prophecy of the Five
DatacronHunter's Video Guides to Datacrons | Datacron Spreadsheet