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EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

VarKoE's Avatar


VarKoE
07.27.2012 , 11:00 AM | #241
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
Lol!! You could not login..so I would assume that was into the game. Now I wonder what would happen if after a website/forum maintenance , when you have to login to be able to post would that still happen? Sounds like a bug which they need to fix.
Naw, not a bug. This has to do with timed permissions. Depending on what you do u could get a few extra days until the permissions refresh. An orange explained this once.

Leeoben's Avatar


Leeoben
07.27.2012 , 11:02 AM | #242
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
Lol!! You could not login..so I would assume that was into the game. Now I wonder what would happen if after a website/forum maintenance , when you have to login to be able to post would that still happen? Sounds like a bug which they need to fix.
Bioware actually responded to this previously. I don't have the exact quote, but what it boiled down to was the forum does not make you relog everytime you visit, so it stores your credentials and access for a while. So even after your gametime expires it may be a week or two before the forums want you to relog and recheck your status, so for that time you will still be able to post.

VarKoE's Avatar


VarKoE
07.27.2012 , 11:07 AM | #243
Quote: Originally Posted by dandamanno View Post
No it's not. Read my post #208 in this thread for details as to why some guesses are better than others. Or are you saying me guessing 100 million subs is as good a guess as yours?
Unless you are an analsyt with access to the numbers you (anyone) have no idea. You think you know and thats fine but the shear amount of assumptions you are making means your guess no better than most. Opinions are just opinions. You have no facts. Well see soon enough, maybe yours it the correct guess but i would not bet any money on it.

Valkirus's Avatar


Valkirus
07.27.2012 , 11:24 AM | #244
Quote: Originally Posted by VarKoE View Post
Unless you are an analsyt with access to the numbers you (anyone) have no idea. You think you know and thats fine but the shear amount of assumptions you are making means your guess no better than most. Opinions are just opinions. You have no facts. Well see soon enough, maybe yours it the correct guess but i would not bet any money on it.
I would not bet they will say 360k subs are the present figures. But from using the TOR server status and using those % figures, etc..I think it is closer to the real sub numbers. The figures they will say will not be the most accurate ones I am sure.
Trust is something which is earned.

DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
07.27.2012 , 11:30 AM | #245
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
I would not bet they will say 360k subs are the present figures. But from using the TOR server status and using those % figures, etc..I think it is closer to the real sub numbers. The figures they will say will not be the most accurate ones I am sure.
I think you're using the wrong words.

I think you're right that ~360k is the number of players who are actively playing the game (log in once a week, for example).

However, I think there are a whole lot more "subscriptions", which means something entirely different from "active players". There are the 6-months that people have walked away from. There are free trials that never close but aren't being played any more.

I think they could easily say 750k or higher if the question is "active subscriptions".

Arlbo_Nabbins's Avatar


Arlbo_Nabbins
07.27.2012 , 11:32 AM | #246
Quote: Originally Posted by TheBetty View Post
Just out of curiosity. Say they released the numbers and it was in the order of 1.5-2 million (only speaking hypothetically here). Would that shut the doom sayers up? or would they just conveniently ignore that? lol
They would ignore it and just claim that the number are being padded somehow.

DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
07.27.2012 , 11:34 AM | #247
Quote: Originally Posted by Arlbo_Nabbins View Post
They would ignore it and just claim that the number are being padded somehow.
The server populations that are evident to all do not support 1.5-2M subscribers. The evidence would be contrary to the words. If you choose to believe the words, great. Some will choose to look for the definitions and assumptions behind them.

Valkirus's Avatar


Valkirus
07.27.2012 , 11:35 AM | #248
Quote: Originally Posted by DarthTHC View Post
I think you're using the wrong words.

I think you're right that ~360k is the number of players who are actively playing the game (log in once a week, for example).

However, I think there are a whole lot more "subscriptions", which means something entirely different from "active players". There are the 6-months that people have walked away from. There are free trials that never close but aren't being played any more.

I think they could easily say 750k or higher if the question is "active subscriptions".
I cannot disagree with your points. With the exception about the free trials. Surely they would not count those?
Accounts and subs are two different things.
Trust is something which is earned.

Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
07.27.2012 , 11:47 AM | #249
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
I cannot disagree with your points. With the exception about the free trials. Surely they would not count those?
Accounts and subs are two different things.
"Active accounts" (which are what are counted) are paying accounts, any accounts with free time, and usually trial accounts too (all counted within the last billing cycle, usually a month, of the date) in most MMORPGs
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1

Arlbo_Nabbins's Avatar


Arlbo_Nabbins
07.27.2012 , 11:48 AM | #250
Quote: Originally Posted by DarthTHC View Post
The server populations that are evident to all do not support 1.5-2M subscribers. The evidence would be contrary to the words. If you choose to believe the words, great. Some will choose to look for the definitions and assumptions behind them.
I was answering a hypothetical question, learn English. You should also note that I have already made my prediction in this thread and it was not that high.

Actually the server populations that are evident support the remote possibility of those numbers (although its really unlikely). It all depends on the frequency patterns of play (because while most games run at ~10% 5% playing at peak is not impossible), the big unknown is how many people are still playing on the ~200 origin servers. If the destinations are hitting a 3k peak (higher numbers have certainly been seen) and the origins are getting a 50 peak and SWTOR is a 5% of subs at peak game then that is 1.7 million. Highly improbable but not completely impossible IMO.

But as to my answer later posts show how accurate it was:

Quote: Originally Posted by Kreedlore View Post
I am going to book mark this thread and recheck it sometime in the fall when EA's real numbers will show up in the finacials that Ea cant hide anymore or fudge or inflate or use data outdated to show as current to their shareholders. Hrmmm maybe the first part of next year to get the correct numbers. Either way after the 6 th month subs are completely out of the system the real numbers wont show up on paper until somewhere around that time.
Quote: Originally Posted by Emeda View Post
225-250k. But that wont be the number they give. They will word it to include trial accounts (probable by using the word accounts instead of subs or something like that) and they will include anyone who has cancelled their account with the intention to not renew but still have time left on their active account. Remember that its up to July 1st I think so that will include anyone that came back to test 1.3 with the server merges and all the free accounts that people dont have to cancel when they quit because its free.
If the numbers look good its because EA/BW are manipulating them ... its a truly pathetic tactic.