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EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

Thaltom's Avatar


Thaltom
07.27.2012 , 06:57 AM | #151
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
Emeda is correct and the formula used by her/him is a lot more accurate than the highly political one EA will use. 370, 300 sounds about right. It takes into account the % of players who logon. 10% of the total sub base is pretty accurate. The only solid subs EA would reveal is if they say....as of now, end of July, we have these many subs. But even that will be infected with the 6 month subbers who have canceled but still counted.
"Sounds about right"?... sounding right and being right are very different things. One is opinion and the other is fact.

In this thread we should make estimations at the sub numbers but touting that you have some kind of concrete proof... well that is just silly
I only get paid when I survive. I like getting paid.

Valkirus's Avatar


Valkirus
07.27.2012 , 06:58 AM | #152
Quote: Originally Posted by Thaltom View Post
Close to accurate? Not sure that qualifies as a citable source.



10%? Where does that number come from? I've heard that figure used to describe Eve Online's logins to subscriptions ratio but it was explained that is very much an estimation and shouldn't be treated as concrete. My guess is that subs are 750,000 +/- 100,000 subs, I don't back that up with formulas because the formulas won't be accurate.
Think about it. They have less than 30 servers with high populations. There are not enough servers to have much more than 400k players. No way 750k, unless there are 300k+ players who have a 6 month sub and have canceled. :P
Trust is something which is earned.

DarthTHC's Avatar


DarthTHC
07.27.2012 , 06:58 AM | #153
To the OP's question, over 300k is a very, very safe bet. The 6 month subs purchased when the game launched are still active. Plus there are probably a lot of free trial accounts they can count as active.

EA is never going to break it down to the level that we can see how many active, paying accounts there are. We are going to have to infer the game's ability to survive long-term by watching other actions EA takes relative to the game. Things like:

Staffing. Are they increasing or reducing staff? Staff reductions can be normal early in an MMO's life but if they continue, it's probably a sign that the game is performing below expectation and it's a certain sign that the publisher is reducing its investment in the game. Companies invest where they believe profit can be made and reduce investment where they are losing money. Business 101.

Release Cadence. The frequency with which new features and content are released can be telling. MMOs performing at or above expectation release new content and/or features on regular schedules. Publishers keep the players informed about the new stuff coming up "soon". An unpublished schedule for releases and lack of communication about new features can indicate an MMO that is performing below expectation.

Blackardin's Avatar


Blackardin
07.27.2012 , 07:03 AM | #154
Quote: Originally Posted by DarksideWK View Post
I'm going to put my guess in for the sub base. I'm going to guess they report a 450k "player base" which we can understand as 150k trial accounts and 300k subs. Over or under?

<edited for spelling>
What I want to know is why you people are so intent on disparaging, and driving players away from a game that you are interested in. You do know that is all these negative threads do right? You do know that the devs are not reading them right, not in this forum? You do know that potential players are, right?

So the game is lacking for subs. You constantly post negativity about it and put it front and center 10 to 20 times a day with negative posts. Subs drop off even more. Game shuts down and you can't play anymore. What have you accomplished. You going to go to some other game board and type "I told you so?"

I mean, you are complaining about subs and you are very probably the largest contributor to their decline, all of you.

You do not make any sense to me at all.
May the Schwartz be with you....

Thaltom's Avatar


Thaltom
07.27.2012 , 07:04 AM | #155
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
Think about it. They have less than 30 servers with high populations. There are not enough servers to have much more than 400k players. No way 750k, unless there are 300k+ players who have a 6 month sub and have canceled. :P
Our estimates (because that is all these numbers are ) can't include subscribers who login infrequently due to school, work, deployment, etc. etc. Even the login numbers are guessing at the low, standard, heavy, very heavy, and full thresholds...

Now correct me if I am wrong but EA has never stated: The Low threshold is 3,000, the Standard is 5,500... right? If they have let me know please.
I only get paid when I survive. I like getting paid.

Emeda's Avatar


Emeda
07.27.2012 , 07:10 AM | #156
Quote: Originally Posted by Thaltom View Post
"Sounds about right"?... sounding right and being right are very different things. One is opinion and the other is fact.

In this thread we should make estimations at the sub numbers but touting that you have some kind of concrete proof... well that is just silly
No one has said they have concret proof. Stop saying that is what we are saying to discredit anything we say.

Any number I give is not concrete but using a formula that has been show to be accurate by Bioware telling us they had 1.3 million and the formula giving a number close to 1.3 million is the best thing to use to figure out subs without being allowed acces to the numbers.
If this game is so great then why do so many people that love the game spend all their time in the forums?

Valkirus's Avatar


Valkirus
07.27.2012 , 07:12 AM | #157
Quote: Originally Posted by Thaltom View Post
Our estimates (because that is all these numbers are ) can't include subscribers who login infrequently due to school, work, deployment, etc. etc. Even the login numbers are guessing at the low, standard, heavy, very heavy, and full thresholds...

Now correct me if I am wrong but EA has never stated: The Low threshold is 3,000, the Standard is 5,500... right? If they have let me know please.
You still are not getting it, but that's ok. Time proves all things. Just keep in mind what I said about the 6 month subs inc and the more solid sub figures released by EA will not be until the end of the year. When all the extra effects are gone. That is if they release the sub numbers at all. Rift does'nt.
Trust is something which is earned.

Thaltom's Avatar


Thaltom
07.27.2012 , 07:12 AM | #158
Quote: Originally Posted by Emeda View Post
No one has said they have concret proof. Stop saying that is what we are saying to discredit anything we say.

Any number I give is not concrete but using a formula that has been show to be accurate by Bioware telling us they had 1.3 million and the formula giving a number close to 1.3 million is the best thing to use to figure out subs without being allowed acces to the numbers.
No one said that they have concrete proof but posting numbers from formulas that are not accurate doesn't do anyone any good... unless you are trolling and trying to get a rise out of people, but that rarely happens in swtor GD... right?
I only get paid when I survive. I like getting paid.

Shingara's Avatar


Shingara
07.27.2012 , 07:14 AM | #159
Im gonna say not changed very much at all. I think they have purposly done a low content patch for the same reasons they put it out at xmas before it was ready, TSW.
Health Warning - Thread May Contain Nuts.
First, you can continue as a subscriber, which gives you unlimited access to all game features and future Game Updates at no additional charge. http://www.swtor.com/info/news/blog/20120731

Thaltom's Avatar


Thaltom
07.27.2012 , 07:15 AM | #160
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
You still are not getting it, but that's ok. Time proves all things. Just keep in mind what I said about the 6 month subs inc and the more solid sub figures released by EA will not be until the end of the year. When all the extra effects are gone. That is if they release the sub numbers at all. Rift does'nt.
The Force willing, they won't release them to us. Bickering over sub numbers has got to be one of the least productive things we could do on this forum... but it is Friday so I guess if you are going to be inefficient today is the day to do it.
I only get paid when I survive. I like getting paid.