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HM FP & SM/HM Ops Drops


oofalong's Avatar


oofalong
07.25.2012 , 10:01 AM | #11
@Madscidexter - Good point, but I believe I have accounted for that. I took the drops and treated each as independent events then combined the probabilities to arrive at my overall probability. Still, the probability of any one drop and the next drop is always 50/50 based on my HM LI group and 33/33/33 for my HM EV group.

To use your coin example, if I flip a coin twice the likelihood of getting exactly 2 Heads in a row is 1 in 4 or 25%.

Here are all of the possibilities:
  • Heads > Heads
  • Heads > Tails
  • Tails > Heads
  • Tails > Tails

To expand upon this, if I flipped a coin 100 times the expected result is 50 Heads and 50 Tails. In reality, I would probably end up with something like 54 Heads and 46 Tails, which would not be at all surprising. I might not even be surprised by a 90/10 split because 100 is a relatively small sample size. However, if I flipped a coin 1 million times and never got a Heads, I would question the 50/50 probability of that coin.

For my HM LI group, there were 4 drops and each drop had 2 possible outcomes. Thus there are a total of 16 possible outcomes - 2^4. However, only one of those outcomes has 4 SI drops so the probability of 0 SW drops is 1 in 16 or 6.25%.

For my HM EV group, there were 10 drops and each drop had 3 possible outcomes. Thus, there are a total of 59,049 possibilities - 3^10. Of all of these combinations there are 5,120 outcomes with only 1 SW drop.

Individually my experiences with the drops are bad luck or random. This post was meant to increase my sample size by asking others if they had similar observations.
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You are correct Oofalong.

Vaizrin's Avatar


Vaizrin
07.25.2012 , 10:41 AM | #12
I have no recordings to offer but I can't give you opinions xD.

When I run with 3-4 classes drops tend to be a little biased towards certain classes, but still completely random. When I run with 2 classes it is much more likely to be extremes, in fact I find I often have worse luck because of the "flip a coin" issue.

When you flip a coin it is highly possible that in the first 10 flips you won't see a single heads. In fact try it right now! It is a 50 / 50 shot but the actual chance is 50 / 50 only over time. I'm trying to explain this and I have very little background in the math needed so sorry if I sound like an idoit lol because I am.

Basically what I'm saying is that in a normal flashpoint it is highly likely to not get anything you actually need.

As far as LFG, that isn't actually random. If you're set to random, and I'm set to Esseles and we get matched; guess where you're going. I always get the same places when I que up because of people that need gear that are specifically farming, I've made it a point to ask because it's happened so much lol.

Hope this helped a bit with your thoughts.
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Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
07.25.2012 , 11:23 AM | #13
The good thing is you still get Columi commendations for the daily/weekly and BH comms for the group finder. That helps ease the pain of losing a roll or a bad drop.

Still doesn't work with the mainhand, though.

DiLune's Avatar


DiLune
07.25.2012 , 11:49 AM | #14
Quote: Originally Posted by JeffKretz View Post
The good thing is you still get Columi commendations for the daily/weekly and BH comms for the group finder. That helps ease the pain of losing a roll or a bad drop.

Still doesn't work with the mainhand, though.
Tell me about it. I'm still rocking a columi hilt on my mainhand. Saving credits to buy the might hilt 26 (no guardians available) that a guy on the server can make.

SilentBlitzer's Avatar


SilentBlitzer
07.25.2012 , 02:17 PM | #15
Quote: Originally Posted by JeffKretz View Post
The good thing is you still get Columi commendations for the daily/weekly and BH comms for the group finder. That helps ease the pain of losing a roll or a bad drop.

Still doesn't work with the mainhand, though.

Indeed

legionof's Avatar


legionof
07.26.2012 , 12:57 AM | #16
At least in the case of operations, there is from my experience a significant weighting towards whichever player toon is the least equipped relative to the content. When i ended up in an EC SM run with my mostly colmni sniper both the first 2 bosses loot was 90% agent drops. I was the only agent present.
Later in that same run when i had taken the time during a wipe recovery to trade in my tokens the loot evened out considerably more towards the groups actual makeup. That run was probably the most extreme case but I've seen the tendency in other ops as well.

I would not be surprised if the same effect applied in flash points. Although the small number of drops compared to raids would somewhat conceal the trend. Additionally since this "quality check" occurs as far as i can tell when boss loot is generated, raids and flashpoints render somewhat different data because of the types of drops.
Tokens are often not traded in until after the raid is completed and as such do not affect the "quality check" of later bosses. Ready to wear gear on the other hand would have an immediate effect if used immediately. (often the case in leveling flash points)

Also if such a check occurs those of us that spend time making sure our gear is the best it can always be, upgrading through planet comms and the GTN, would be closer to the quality checks threshold then other players. We would therefore receive fewer drops then straight probability would seem imply.

As yet i do not have hard statistical evidence for my theory due to lack of sufficient data. I only have my personal toons. While i would like to have more data on the subject i doubt i will every get it do the nature of the required tests. I would not force a severely undergeared toon on a raid many times purely for data gathering. Although if anyone does wish to volunteer for such testing please do let me know.

EdratLightindark's Avatar


EdratLightindark
07.26.2012 , 07:06 AM | #17
My experience has been the same as others who have posted here. It seems that the least represented class gets the most drops. I have also seen the least geared player ,(whatever class), get the most drops (of which I dont mind because they need it). It happens way more than not. This needs to be looked at imo.
Edrat - Jedi Sent (SWG-Shadowfire)(SWTOR-Canderous Ordo)