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HM FP & SM/HM Ops Drops


oofalong's Avatar


oofalong
07.24.2012 , 10:39 AM | #1
I appreciate that drops are supposed to be random and I understand math and probabilities. Still, I wonder if there is some manipulation of the numbers based on group composition.

Last night, I ran HM LI with 3 Sith Warriors ( Jugg Tank + Jugg DPS + Marauder DPS) and 1 Sith Inquisitor (Healer). Every single token drop was for the Sith Inquisitor. There are 4 token drops here. Assuming the drops are not based on a weighted ratio, we basically had 1in 2 chance of any one drop being for a SW. The likelihood of all 4 being for the SI is 6.25%. (If it includes a weighting for group composition, I believe the likelihood of all four drops being for the minority class to be 0.4%.)

Last week, I PUGed a HM EV with 6 Sith Warriors (2 Jugg Tank + 4 Marauder DPS) plus 1 Bounty Hunter and 1 Operative. Of the 8 token drops (4 bosses x 2 tokens per boss), only 1 was for a SW. The likelihood of this happening is 15.6%.

Additionally, one of the PUG members mentioned a similar phenomenon on a different run. That group comprised 7 Sith Inquisitors and 1 Imperial Agent and every single drop was for the IA, which has a likelihood of 1.7%.

If the drops take into account group composition, these events would be infinitesimally small in their likelihood although I am not actually going to calculate them.

The other alternative is random is not really random when a group is heavily skewed to one class. Has anyone else observed this?

Update:
Of the 10 token drops (5 bosses x 2 tokens per boss), only 1 was for a SW. The likelihood of this happening is 8.7%. (I forgot to count the Ancient Pylon puzzle in my initial calculations.) This decreases the likelihood significantly. Again the purpose of this post was to see if others had observed similar outcomes. I am not complaining about the lack of drops and I am not asking for an explanation of random. Nor am I espousing conspiracy theories.

Still, it wouldn't surprise me to learn about some code that influences the drop rate based on group composition such that under-represented classes still benefit.
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Quote: Originally Posted by EricMusco View Post
You are correct Oofalong.

DiLune's Avatar


DiLune
07.24.2012 , 10:55 AM | #2
Supposed to be an even chance based on classes present (50% if 2, 33% if 3 and 25% if all 4.) But my experience over the last month also doesn't play out with that. Also, for example HM KP, I have seen a whole lot of double drops (weapon drops, both are Agent, both are Inquisitor, etc.) The RNG doesn't seem to be programmed very well.

I've also seen weekly strings of "random" instances. 2 BP and 5 Foundry last week, for example. The week before it was mostly FE (5 out of 7.) Something doesn't seem to be working correctly (for me at least.)

haliy's Avatar


haliy
07.24.2012 , 01:16 PM | #3
RNG is random
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Alterin's Avatar


Alterin
07.24.2012 , 01:29 PM | #4
As I understand it... having 3 of the same class does not increase the chances of them dropping one of their items. So it'll still be 50/50 since there are two different classes present.

Khevar's Avatar


Khevar
07.24.2012 , 02:23 PM | #5
You could do a Shadow/Sage/Sage/Sage or Vanguard/Commando/Commando/Commando to guarantee a drop. Too bad Smugglers don't have tanks and Jedi Knights don't have heals.

wainot-keel's Avatar


wainot-keel
07.24.2012 , 02:38 PM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by DiLune View Post
Supposed to be an even chance based on classes present (50% if 2, 33% if 3 and 25% if all 4.) But my experience over the last month also doesn't play out with that. Also, for example HM KP, I have seen a whole lot of double drops (weapon drops, both are Agent, both are Inquisitor, etc.) The RNG doesn't seem to be programmed very well.
There was a post a while back from BW. They way I understood it, it's that the only certainty is there won't be drops for a class that is not present. Aside from that, anything could happen.

Quote: Originally Posted by DiLune View Post
I've also seen weekly strings of "random" instances. 2 BP and 5 Foundry last week, for example. The week before it was mostly FE (5 out of 7.) Something doesn't seem to be working correctly (for me at least.)
I think the only way to be sure it'll be a random selection, is you queueing a full group and everybody selecting all FPs.
I remember when I needed only Battle of Ilum to get the mount, so that was the only one I checked. Before even saying "hi", the 2 dps on my group were like "oh, man.... am i lucky or what ? this fp sucks. " Me ? "errr...yeah, yeah, this sucks" And the FP indeed sucked. We lost 3 tanks due to DCs or phone calls or whatevs... They never knew

SilentBlitzer's Avatar


SilentBlitzer
07.24.2012 , 02:45 PM | #7
I feel your pain OP. I ran HM FP's just about all this past weekend back and forth between my main (guardian) and an alt (sage) and didnt get a f%@kin thing on either of em. Talk about bad luck, right?

Cashcrop's Avatar


Cashcrop
07.25.2012 , 08:26 AM | #8
I've run Battle of Ilum HM six times in a row (last Columi I need is off-hand), and saw nothing but Inquisitor items drop for all six runs. I'm a Bounty Hunter tank, and the group composition consisted of 2 sorcs, 1 assassin dps, and me on one end of the spectrum, and 1 merc, 1 op, 1 sorc, and me on the other end of the spectrum. I just find it odd that all drops in all six runs of BI were for Inquisitor...seems broken to me. Guess I'll have to try to put together a group of all Bounty Hunters...

Cashcrop's Avatar


Cashcrop
07.25.2012 , 08:31 AM | #9
I've run Battle of Ilum HM six times in a row (last Columi I need is off-hand), and saw nothing but Inquisitor items drop for all six runs. I'm a Bounty Hunter tank, and the group composition consisted of 2 sorcs, 1 assassin dps, and me on one end of the spectrum, and 1 merc, 1 op, 1 sorc, and me on the other end of the spectrum. I just find it odd that all drops in all six runs of BI were for Inquisitor...seems broken to me. Guess I'll have to try to put together a group of all Bounty Hunters...

Madscidexter's Avatar


Madscidexter
07.25.2012 , 09:36 AM | #10
Oofalong

You numbers are incorrect. Probability resets for each roll. This is why casinos are so profitable. Your group makeup consisted of Warriors and Inquisitors, thus each drop would contain loot for either a Warrior or Inquisitor. Therefore, each drop has a 50% chance to be for a Warrior or Inquisitor. The probability on the next drop does not depend or change the probability in favor of one or the other. The probability is still 50%. Think of flipping a coin – the coin could land on heads 10 times in a row. What is the probability that the coin will be heads on the eleventh flip? 50%. The system is completely random and your Warriors simply had bad luck that night.