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Reverse Engineer 20% Broken

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineer 20% Broken

ScrabblePants's Avatar


ScrabblePants
07.11.2012 , 05:47 AM | #31
I'm off to do the lottery, I can't tell you the number of times i have got the numbers wrong, so therefore I am more or less guaranteed to win it surely?
What's that, you say?
Each draw is mutually exclusive?
Previous results do not affect the next result?

Damn.

Liokae's Avatar


Liokae
07.11.2012 , 06:01 AM | #32
Quote: Originally Posted by Goretzu View Post
RNG is Pseudo-R. YMMV.
With modern number generation, there's no functional difference between pseudorandom and random.

FourTwent's Avatar


FourTwent
07.11.2012 , 06:13 AM | #33
Quote: Originally Posted by Superpasta View Post
So instead of 20% x 5 = 100% success in RE. You are facing 80% x 5 = 400% FAIL!!! in RE.
this is actually a very good way of looking at it

ZudetGambeous's Avatar


ZudetGambeous
07.11.2012 , 06:19 AM | #34
There are probably close to 10 million RE event taking place across the game every day. Which means people have the possibility of seeing all sorts of statistically unlikely events.

So there is probably at least 1 poor soul out there every so often who sees no crits after 60 RE's(~1 in 10 million chance)... just be glad you aren't that guy.

The devs have access to the overall numbers (sample size hundreds of millions, not the 50 or so yours is) and see a 20% rate, so there is no problem
I tell you this: though neither he nor they yet know it, he is the greatest of all the Jedi. Jacen Solo is the living Jedi dream. Even without the Force, he is more dangerous than you can possibly imagine."

HarleysRule's Avatar


HarleysRule
07.11.2012 , 06:19 AM | #35
My record for RE fails is 22 straight. Sometimes I get 3/5 on the next item. Random numbers are random.

Bloodstealer's Avatar


Bloodstealer
07.11.2012 , 06:39 AM | #36
After 1.3 I went thro a real bad spell of RE'ing and thought that summing was up but tbh the very next day... DING! I got lucky more than unlucky, so for me it seems to be working as intended... its a game of chance sometimes its seems in your favor, other times the gods appear to be conspiring against you..
The Chaotic Misfits Guild.
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Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
07.11.2012 , 06:51 AM | #37
Quote: Originally Posted by Liokae View Post
With modern number generation, there's no functional difference between pseudorandom and random.
With cutting edge RNG probably not (mostly because the include a geniunely random external variable), with MMORPG RNG there most likely is.
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
Goretzu's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving "Entitled" approaches 1

Legolose's Avatar


Legolose
07.11.2012 , 06:58 AM | #38
Yeah sometimes it took me to RE 10 to 15 items till it hit but there have been times when I hit on the first one so yeah its whatever is randomly rolled so....

PolishRifle's Avatar


PolishRifle
07.11.2012 , 07:02 AM | #39
Yesterday I RE 22 green "might augment 22" until I got the blue schematic. I RE 1 blue and got the purple. It all works out in the end. People fall into the gambler's fallacy all the time (trust me I work in a casino) just because on roulette you have a 50/50 chance on red or black (I know there is a 0 and 00 but lets keep it simple) based on the OP theory the wheel should alternate red and black every spin. I've dealt on a wheel and spun black 18 times in a row. Every event is independent of the previous events.

kaboro's Avatar


kaboro
07.11.2012 , 07:08 AM | #40
Quote: Originally Posted by DropbearSW View Post
The tool tips say the chance to successfully reverse engineer a green item as being 20%. This is clearly rubbish. I've produced MANY MANY more greens than needed for a 1 in 5 hit rate.

I'm not sure if it's the SWTOR random number generator that's broken, or if the tool tip is wrong. Either way it should be fixed..

(and yes I know, 20% chance doesn't guarentee a 1 in 5 hit, but it should average out to that over time - and clearly, in this game it doesn't).
I have several crafting alts and i tested this across all of them and a fairly large number of items (412 to be exact).
While on some characters i got a rate of 12% from 70ish items, on others i got rates of 36%.
When i made the average across all of them it was 21.6% so actually better than the tooltip.
I had bouts of needing to RE 12-15 items for a success, and that 2-3 times in a row, but also bouts of success from first or second try.
Given a sufficient number of tries, the overall percentage is fairly accurate.
Its irritating when you need to RE 15 items several time in a row to get a success, but thats the problem with RNG systems and that doesnt automatically mean the system is broken.