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Reverse Engineer 20% Broken

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineer 20% Broken

DropbearSW's Avatar


DropbearSW
07.10.2012 , 11:47 PM | #21
Quote: Originally Posted by Superpasta View Post
Let put it the other way, you don't get 20% chance of each try to success.

You are getting 80% chance of each try to fail.

So instead of 20% x 5 = 100% success in RE. You are facing 80% x 5 = 400% FAIL!!! in RE.

Does it make you feel you were actually very very luck to sucess in only 1 out of 10 attempts now???
no.. succeeding 1 in 10 attempts in 10% chance, not 20...


by the way i realise it's not guaranteed.. im just saying it should approximate a 1 in 5 win.. and it's not even close to that.. maybe my losses are making up for everyone else 1 shotting them

MagicmanNC's Avatar


MagicmanNC
07.10.2012 , 11:50 PM | #22
Quote: Originally Posted by Superpasta View Post
Let put it the other way, you don't get 20% chance of each try to success.

You are getting 80% chance of each try to fail.

So instead of 20% x 5 = 100% success in RE. You are facing 80% x 5 = 400% FAIL!!! in RE.

Does it make you feel you were actually very very luck to sucess in only 1 out of 10 attempts now???
I prefer the "glass is half full" way of thinking......if I have 5 items to RE, then I have 0.8 to the 5th power (0.32768, or let's say 33%) chance to NOT get a schematic.

I keep telling that to myself as that 0.8 to the first power keeps kicking my *** over and over.....

Denki_'s Avatar


Denki_
07.11.2012 , 12:01 AM | #23
The 20% RE does NOT work like this:

RE 1 item = 20% chance; therefore RE 5 items = 100% chance! I r so smart

Rather, it works like THIS:

Will RE X items:
Item 1 has 20% chance of success, 80% chance to fail
Item 2 has 20% chance of success, 80% chance to fail
Item 3 has 20% chance of success, 80% chance to fail
...
Rinse and repeat until you hit the 20% chance.

In short: The chances of success are rated individually, not cumulative.
Denki
Alpha Empire Sith Sorcerer The Bastion

"What's the matter, afraid of a little lightning?"

dizzyMongoose's Avatar


dizzyMongoose
07.11.2012 , 12:06 AM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by DropbearSW View Post
yes.. i know basic probability theory.. still says that in a large sample, 1 in 5 should pop.
You are falling into the gambler's fallacy. Yes, the average is expected to come out to 1 in 5 as the sample gets very large (as in, the limit approaching infinity), but each individual attempt is always 20%. When looking at probability for independent events, what already happened doesn't matter. There is no corrective force that says that because you failed 20 times, the 21st time has to succeed because you're not getting a 1 in 5 average for your actual attempts. Your next RE is still a 20% chance to succeed.

To put it another way, if you said you should expect around 200 successful REs out of your next 1000 tries, that'd be reasonable. If you've done 999 REs and failed and you expect your next attempt to be anything but a 20% chance at success, you'd be wrong. (And probably cursed.)

frobalt's Avatar


frobalt
07.11.2012 , 12:29 AM | #25
Quote: Originally Posted by Kunda View Post
No, that isn't how it works. You clearly aren't understanding "basic probability theory".

No he isn't. More specifically, the 'theory part. IE: Just because the theory states that, with a large sample size you'll find the probability to be correct, it doesn't mean it always is.


I do wonder what the % it's come out with overall is for the population of single server, though, as that would certainly be classed as a huge sample size.
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Mercyflush's Avatar


Mercyflush
07.11.2012 , 01:35 AM | #26
It will also depend on your skill level. Something that is high on your skill list will not RE very well. Greens get you the standard tool tip 20%. You go grey and well below your skill and you can RE with quite a bit of success, I have frequently done that and got 3 new schematics out of 5 chances or less. Stacked items like stims can almost always get you a schematic doing 5-10 at a time.
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Darzil's Avatar


Darzil
07.11.2012 , 02:48 AM | #27
Say you have 100,000 people (around 1/10th of the number of accounts), who reverse engineer stuff. WIth a 20% chance, each tries to get a blue, any blue, from a green.

10737 of them will require more than 10 tries.
377 of them will require more than 25 tries.
1 of them (well, 1.4) will require more than 50 tries!

That one is highly likely to come on the forum to complain about the RNG being broken, even though what it actually proves is the RNG is working as expected!

HelinCarnate's Avatar


HelinCarnate
07.11.2012 , 03:10 AM | #28
Quote: Originally Posted by DropbearSW View Post
no.. succeeding 1 in 10 attempts in 10% chance, not 20...


by the way i realise it's not guaranteed.. im just saying it should approximate a 1 in 5 win.. and it's not even close to that.. maybe my losses are making up for everyone else 1 shotting them

It is approximate a 1 in 5 chance. RE something around 10000 times and track your results. You should see around 20% success rate.
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Please nerf paper and buff rock. Scissors is fine as is.
Signed, Rock.

Goretzu's Avatar


Goretzu
07.11.2012 , 03:40 AM | #29
Quote: Originally Posted by pjskull View Post
RNG is R
RNG is Pseudo-R. YMMV.
Real Star Wars space combat please, not Star Wars Fox! Maybe some PvP and flight too?
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Amendial's Avatar


Amendial
07.11.2012 , 03:54 AM | #30
Those laws of probability only apply if you were to say reverse engineer about 500 to 1000 of those items, and in that case it should come out to be 1 out of 5 tries on average for a success. But if you want to break it down on a single individual attempt, there is a 1 - (1024/3125) or about a 67% chance of getting a success in your first five tries. Honestly the probability of 10 failures is high enough that I can say it is not an outrageous result for it to happen every so often. Basically one out of every three items should take more than five tries.
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