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new problem with Reverse Engineering?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
new problem with Reverse Engineering?

Mookind's Avatar

06.23.2012 , 03:15 PM | #21
If you have collected a pitiful amount of data of course you may get some odd results. You barely did anything at all.

RE'ing works for me and the rest of the community. Or these threads would be everywhere.

1 in 18 lol

steave's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 06:31 AM | #22
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackardin View Post
You've just demonstrated the flaw in the system. Odds mean nothing except odds. They are just a chance, that is all. If they meant anything people would not be losing their shirts in Vegas, and it would be called Caesar's Shack, not Caesar's Palace.

As proven, a streak of 345 and 156 can and will happen, and that is unacceptable. I'm currently in my second round of REing a blue barrel for a second alt. I'm up to 24 on this round. I believe I hit about 30 the last time I tried and quit. Both times I've blown through mats scavenged over the course of the month with a cost estimate in the 50k range.

On a spread-sheet with no variables included, this may seem balanced over time, but in real world practice these are unacceptable results for a level 17 item with a life expectancy of a few days and a worth of around 3k.
If you think the system sucks, head over to the suggestions box with your suggestion for how to make it better, but a bad system does not mean a broken system. The system is working as advertised.

evanfardreamer's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 09:21 AM | #23
Quote: Originally Posted by teolawki View Post
To me it seems that there are times when the reverse engineering roll is not being performed or the roll variable is not updating correctly. It also seems that this is more likely and more comon under heavier server load. Don't misunderstand. I'm not saying this is what's happening. I'm just describing my impression of what I see. And, although I don't believe this is the case, I also cannot absolutely rule out the possibility that this is simply a perception issue.

What I would suggest is uncovering the reverse engineering rolls in the UI. I don't think it would be too difficult and it would certainly help in determining if there is an underlying problem in the live server environment. And if this is all a simple matter of misperception on the user's part, it would dispel that rather quickly.
I'm actually really in favor of this. Just like in other MMOs using the 'd20' system showed your attack rolls and skill checks, being able to see if you were close or far can do a lot to soothe a bad string of RNG hits. And if, as mentioned, it has 'dead' streaks, we could see if it really did roll 77 twenty-five times in a row, and open a ticket - presumably the RE rolls would then be visible to the CSRs who respond to the tickets, and can confirm them.

And if it does jump all over the place, and just doesn't fall within that 20%, we'll know that as well, and some people can finally accept a random system is random. (or as close as an electronic one can be, anyways.)

asbalana's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 10:41 AM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackardin View Post

On a spread-sheet with no variables included, this may seem balanced over time, but in real world practice these are unacceptable results for a level 17 item with a life expectancy of a few days and a worth of around 3k.
Yes that is the rub.

On the other hand, this game is very gear dependent. Running through content with augmented purples at any level is a delight. My wife and I are running alts at the moment. The first time through we did a Heroic 2 on Tatooine in pretty decent gear and had a heck of a time. This run we are fully geared in augmented purples and at one level below the the first run in the same Heroic, just ate everything in sight. We were surprised how quick and easy the quest was. We make our own gear because there is very little to be found on the GTN (Harbinger) and we find that the few listed top level gear items at any character level are very very expensive (way above 3K in cost).

Because of the way the rng system operates, no player will ever be able to determine if if RE is working as advertised and the "odds" are correctly implemented. On one character, I can run my full affection companions in Slicing and often get nothing and then on an alt run run three missions on almost zero affection characters with no Slicing crits and end up with two missions returning augmentors and the third critting on a lockbox mission. Yesterday I got a companion that uses cunning. I am leveling armormech so things are moving together. I decided to craft him upgraded bracers and gloves that were only a level or two different from each other. The bracers (higher level) hit blue after two tries and purple after three and I made two pieces of gear, one of which critted. The gloves took about twenty tries for blue and I am into about another thirty for purple with no luck. Armormech is the only crew skill that I do not have at least one character at 400 level. I run a lot of crew missions and my subjective experience is that the system is probably working as indicated, but as one person analyzed above, can be streaky as all heck.

Fortunately, I have cargo bays full of mats and can RE until the cows come home. So I end up getting what I want. Is it worth the effort for leveling characters? No, not really or if you hit a bad streak not even close. I could sell the mats that I use for a ton and end up rich, fat, and happy. Yet the result of the RE effor is a purple recipe that I will then have forever and a character or alt that is a powerhouse in gear which I can get in no other way and which makes things so much more approachable and doable.

PS - As an LOL afterthought something that happened yesterday that emphasizes gear importance comes to mind. My wife and I were riding along on Tatoonie when we came across three players that were starting a 4 man Heroic. So we stopped to watch. The group was a few levels above us. Of course, they did everything wrong. They charged into three golds without ccing any of them and missed a fouth gold who was waliking by and who joined the fight. Quickly one of the group tried to run for it and the oher two were at about 20%. health. As the runner passed by me I felt sorry for him and tried to toss him a heal to keep him alive. Thanks to the magic of ability delay, I was an instant to late and he died at my feet. My wife thought I was joining to fight and so force leaped into the middle of the pile of golds. So with our two companions firing away, I started thowing heals to her and dpsing when I could. The four golds went down quickly (my wife is a killer and it was six to four against the golds with us not part of the group) and I was able to keep the other two players in the grooup up and my wife's health topped off. No thank you was forthcoming and as we road off into the double suns, we wondered if the group would be smart and give up or would try to keep going on the heroic. The point is that my wife's warrior destroyed the golds and my healer (when not healing) did some pretty good dps.and the biggest difference at the point in the fight that we joined was our purple augmented gear. So the purple gear is way nice when levveling.

Darzil's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 12:49 PM | #25
Quote: Originally Posted by uniz View Post
the random number generator that mmos use are very" streaky". i have noticed and seen it with several of them.
Random numbers are very streaky. Try flipping 1000 coins and seeing how long the streaks you get are! If you didn't get long streaks it'd indicate that MMO RNG is wrong.

Larkie's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 01:28 PM | #26
LOL. Still the same old threads I see. What a surprise.

Highcommander's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 02:24 PM | #27
Ok so I hope this post doesn't get overlooked but here is my problem with the current RE system...

If there is a 1 in 1000 chance to RE something... TELL ME BIOWARE! Don't tell me it is 20%. If it really is 20% and I go up to 30 tries with no success that means:

(1/5)^30 (1 out of 5 to the power of 30 tries)
1^30/5^30 = 1/931322574615478515625 = 0.00000000000000000001073741824

OR 1 in a VERY big number. This is the odds of not landing a 1 out of 5 (20%) in 30 consecutive rolls. Which brings me to my next point, perhaps we should be looking at the odds assuming the random generator was built with 4/5 chance of NOT getting a success each roll:

(4/5)^30 (4 out of 5 to the power of 30 tries)
(4/5)^30 = 1152921504606846976 / 931322574615478515625 = 0.001238

Ok now I realllllly suck at math and likely someone will point out problems with the above logic, but ballparking this I come up with (AT BEST) a 1.2 in 1000 chance of going 30 RE tries in a row without success.

If you are doing 1000 RE runs of 30, or about 30,000 items a day, this would be acceptable. But with most of us only RE'ing around 100 items or less a day we KNOW that something is broken in the RNG or RE system.


I know what you are thinking, "ZOMG this guy is going to actually offer solutions rather than just complain? CRAZY TALK" but here is what I think could clear this all up:

1. Dev post explaining the RE system in better detail (what are the physical odds of RE various levels of gear, qualities of gear and stacks of items.)
2. Broken portion of RE system fixed (if it is broken)
3. A "failsafe" added to the system where each RE attempt counts up a counter. After 10 without success the 11th will always reward you. Making RE'ing at WORST a 10% chance.

Any chance a developer will read this?
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SelinaH's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 02:45 PM | #28
Quote: Originally Posted by Highcommander View Post
Ok now I realllllly suck at math and likely someone will point out problems with the above logic, but ballparking this I come up with (AT BEST) a 1.2 in 1000 chance of going 30 RE tries in a row without success.
I haven't checked the math, but assuming it's correct: This means that, in a population of 1000 crafters, one of them is going to draw the short straw. Now multiply that by the population of crafters in TOR. That's a lot of failure strings.

It's certainly possible that there's something wonky going on. However, all we have is a few anecdotes from people who've gotten screwed by the RNG at some point. The people who are actually tracking multiple extended crafting runs over a period of time have, so far, found it to be "working as intended." Yes, there are long strings without successes; this is expected behavior in a system with millions of operations. You don't see lottery winners complaining that there's something wrong with the system because the chance of winning is so miniscule that it simply couldn't have occurred naturally.

I personally think the crux of the issue is less whether the system is WAI, but more that the way it functions penalizes unlucky crafters on the far end of the curve to an unacceptable degree.
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steave's Avatar

06.24.2012 , 03:13 PM | #29
Quote: Originally Posted by Highcommander View Post
Ok now I realllllly suck at math and likely someone will point out problems with the above logic, but ballparking this I come up with (AT BEST) a 1.2 in 1000 chance of going 30 RE tries in a row without success.
Yes you do, and yes I will. The second method is the correct way to calculate probability. The first method simulate failing 30 times with a 80% chance to succeed.

I don't know how many people play this game, but let's say 100.000 and we're probably being conservative. Let's also, conservatively, assume that they do 70 sets of 30 REs each, which is about equivalent to leveling 1 skill to 400. With a 0.124% chance for a streak of 30 to fail, that would mean that there should be 8.666 streaks of 30 failed REs in that sample, spread out trough the 100.000 people.
Suddenly it doesn't seem THAT unlikely for it to happen to you, right? To be exact, that chance is 8.6% for 70 steaks.

Evil_Blowfish's Avatar

06.25.2012 , 02:44 AM | #30
Not going to try and argue with anyones maths but one thing I have noticed is that if I RE a stack of 5 Biochem Items (Green or Blue) I seem to always get a new recipe, which would back up the 20% chance, of course with other skills the items don't stack so I cannot directly compare but I know I have nowhere near the same level of success with my Artifice or synthweaving toons.