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Estimation of average concurrent logins (top servers)

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
Estimation of average concurrent logins (top servers)

Scorpienne's Avatar


Scorpienne
06.18.2012 , 06:54 AM | #1
Although we've had a long crazy trip here, we're back to square one.

The new population caps throw off all the math. I can't do this anymore until and unless I get a lot more data on what server status = how many people.

If you're interested in helping, please take this survey HERE a few times a week, on the imperial and republic sides of your server, and at different server loads (light, medium, heavy, very heavy, full).

The data, as always, will be housed HERE so that everyone can see it and do their own analysis if they choose.

Paige

Scorpienne's Avatar


Scorpienne
06.18.2012 , 06:59 AM | #2
Updated spreadsheet is here - this is where the good stuff lives.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...WmdZUFE#gid=31

New numbers are up and exciting! We've got a continued climb in population... we're up to 66,996 estimated concurrent logins.

Date Estimated concurrent logins
5/8/2012 100,002
5/11/2012 95,859
5/14/2012 95,946
5/16/2012 85,995
5/18/2012 83,194
5/21/2012 76,255
5/23/2012 73,693
5/25/2012 72,203
5/28/2012 66,574
5/30/2012 66,323
6/1/2012 65,772
6/5/2012 63,243
6/6/2012 62,891
6/8/2012 62,601
6/11/2012 62,431
6/13/2012 62,923
6/18/2012 66,996


Again looking at things by transfer status gives us some interesting comparisons.

SUM LOGINS BY Transfer Status
Destination 16,038
Origin 37,558
Origin Likely 10,565
Unknown 2,835
Total 66,996

PER SERVER AVG LOGINS BY Transfer Status
Destination 802
Origin 249
Origin Likely 258
Unknown 473
Grand Avg 307


The population of the origin servers is still looking high, but that's diluted out in the 2 week average. The Destination servers have a whopping 800ish average logins per server! That's the highest number I've seen since starting this process.

Paige

Valkirus's Avatar


Valkirus
06.18.2012 , 07:00 AM | #3
Thanks OP. Some interesting data. What and can we gather from this which may show what the total sub base is for TOR now? Or is that info still subjective at best?
Trust is something which is earned.

Valkirus's Avatar


Valkirus
06.18.2012 , 07:04 AM | #4
Quote: Originally Posted by Scorpienne View Post
Updated spreadsheet is here - this is where the good stuff lives.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...WmdZUFE#gid=31

New numbers are up and exciting! We've got a continued climb in population... we're up to 66,996 estimated concurrent logins.

Date Estimated concurrent logins
5/8/2012 100,002
5/11/2012 95,859
5/14/2012 95,946
5/16/2012 85,995
5/18/2012 83,194
5/21/2012 76,255
5/23/2012 73,693
5/25/2012 72,203
5/28/2012 66,574
5/30/2012 66,323
6/1/2012 65,772
6/5/2012 63,243
6/6/2012 62,891
6/8/2012 62,601
6/11/2012 62,431
6/13/2012 62,923
6/18/2012 66,996


Again looking at things by transfer status gives us some interesting comparisons.

SUM LOGINS BY Transfer Status
Destination 16,038
Origin 37,558
Origin Likely 10,565
Unknown 2,835
Total 66,996

PER SERVER AVG LOGINS BY Transfer Status
Destination 802
Origin 249
Origin Likely 258
Unknown 473
Grand Avg 307


The population of the origin servers is still looking high, but that's diluted out in the 2 week average. The Destination servers have a whopping 800ish average logins per server! That's the highest number I've seen since starting this process.

Paige
It is a increase of logins over what it was a week or so ago for sure. But it is nowhere near close to what it was back last month.
Trust is something which is earned.

Scorpienne's Avatar


Scorpienne
06.18.2012 , 07:08 AM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by Valkirus View Post
Thanks OP. Some interesting data. What and can we gather from this which may show what the total sub base is for TOR now? Or is that info still subjective at best?
Thank you. That's a great question, and I know of no way to answer it (though I'm happy for someone else to show me the way.) The big sticky wicket is that I can estimate the number of people logged in but I have no clue who these people are. It's like the example with the housewives, school kids, salarymen, college kids, insomniacs, and 3rd shifters who all log in at different times. I don't have any good way to understand what percentage of the population is actually logging in and playing. I'm a GL of a casual guild, and there are plenty of people in my guild who are completely satisfied to pay $15 a month to login and play for 4 hours one night a week. We also have a couple of very-determined stay-at-home parents, a retiree, and a couple of college professors with not much to do this summer who play for 6+ hours a day. Time in game is wildly variable in my own guild and circle of friends, I imagine that it's wildly variable in the general population, too.

So, I'm sorry, but I got nothing.

BW has said 1.3 m subs. Assuming that's still true (which is an extremely uncertain assumption) then that says about 5% of the population is active at any one time. I guess that doesn't sound unreasonable to me, but I have no solid quantitative data to back up that "feeling".


Paige

Muskaan's Avatar


Muskaan
06.18.2012 , 09:30 AM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by Scorpienne View Post
Thank you. That's a great question, and I know of no way to answer it (though I'm happy for someone else to show me the way.) The big sticky wicket is that I can estimate the number of people logged in but I have no clue who these people are. It's like the example with the housewives, school kids, salarymen, college kids, insomniacs, and 3rd shifters who all log in at different times. I don't have any good way to understand what percentage of the population is actually logging in and playing. I'm a GL of a casual guild, and there are plenty of people in my guild who are completely satisfied to pay $15 a month to login and play for 4 hours one night a week. We also have a couple of very-determined stay-at-home parents, a retiree, and a couple of college professors with not much to do this summer who play for 6+ hours a day. Time in game is wildly variable in my own guild and circle of friends, I imagine that it's wildly variable in the general population, too.

So, I'm sorry, but I got nothing.

BW has said 1.3 m subs. Assuming that's still true (which is an extremely uncertain assumption) then that says about 5% of the population is active at any one time. I guess that doesn't sound unreasonable to me, but I have no solid quantitative data to back up that "feeling".


Paige
Forget the outliers and go by the 10% rule that seems to be acceptable by MMO developers and designers--

"On an average 10-15% of the subscribed player base is online at a time in an MMO"
50 Sorc Healer/DPS
- We Brake For Nobody - (RIP)
Empire US-West PvE soon-to-be defunct raiding guild
(5/5 Eternity Vault HM, 5/5 Karagga's Palace HM)

Scorpienne's Avatar


Scorpienne
06.18.2012 , 11:20 AM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by Muskaan View Post
Forget the outliers and go by the 10% rule that seems to be acceptable by MMO developers and designers
That sounds as reasonable as anything else. :-) Given that this is the internets and all, do you have a citation for that so I may review it?

Paige

Sanxxx's Avatar


Sanxxx
06.18.2012 , 11:56 AM | #8
I just measured a few servers post transfer using the /who 'level range' method to compare against the assumption

Light is up to about 500
Standard is up to about 1,500
Heavy is up to about 2,250-2,500(?) (Let's call this 2375 for now...)
Very Heavy is up to about 3,000
Full is greater than about 3,000

I think that the Light, Standard and Heavy are still as suggested.

Full on the other hand is suspect and the one he had least data on, my one and only Full server measurement threw up a number of c3800.

There are two possibilities;

1. They have increased the 'Full' limit from c3000 to c3750.
2. 'Full' itself has a range e.g c3000-c3750. The reason I suggest this is that the server in question (TOFN) remained at 'Full' for some time (minutes not hours) before indicating there was a queue and therefore the initial assumption was always wrong.

And in the time it took to write this the queue has increased from 5-20 minutes and the actual queue is 250 meaning that I'm measuring at peak log in time.

Evironrage's Avatar


Evironrage
06.18.2012 , 12:07 PM | #9
It is pretty impressive to see folks taking great strides to assess real pops. What would be better is if BW released a full day census during the weekend. I would like to see how many accounts are logging in for more than one hour per log in.
I don't discuss things as a committee, I don't care about a protocol droid's opinion, and I wish I had more time to get her excited

Namesis's Avatar


Namesis
06.18.2012 , 12:32 PM | #10
nice work