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Broken (or incorrect % chance of success) Reverse Engineering?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Broken (or incorrect % chance of success) Reverse Engineering?

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.12.2012 , 03:43 PM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackardin View Post
Regardless of any math or computation, the reality is that every time one attempts to craft an item, be it the first or the one hundred and first, they have an 80% chance of failure. The predictable odds may change, but the percentage for success does not.
This is just unfortuante bad logic. Don't use this going to Vegas (I kid, I kid.. well a little anyway).

Each individual crafting attempt has a 20% chance of success is true. However, you must take into consideration the sum of all attempts. If you try 100 times with a 20% chance of success and you fail 100 times, you have an outlier situation outside of 3 sigma!! (or 99.99% chance of success).

I'm not saying I've done RE'ing 100 times for any particular blue, but I think you get the jist.

If you want a better illustation, think about rolling a pair of dice. To get a 7 you have a 6/36 chance of success or 1/6. To roll a 7 ten times in a row is not 1/6, it is 1-(30^10/36^10) (or 1 minus the chance of failure).

So again, you MUST take in the consideration of all attempts made to determine the likliness of getting a success. No one should ever fall into the extreme end all of the time.

Lastly, I am talking about these % chances only going after the 2nd or 3rd blue after learning one. I fully agree that the 1st blue learned seems to fall within the expected 20% success chance.

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.12.2012 , 03:50 PM | #12
Quote: Originally Posted by steave View Post
For example, OP mentioned that he should had a 98.8% chance of getting an another blue schematic, which may be true (I didn't do the math myself), but that means there's a 1.2% chance that you won't. If we have, for example, 10 000 players, even only running one sample each, then statistics would indicate there should be 120 people in that sample that got the same result as you.
I would agree with this sentiment if it wasn't for the fact that I have yet to learn a 2nd blue version of a given item, having tried (for the most part at least 20 tries each) at 98.8% one or more of these should have resulted in a second blue. When you add this up collectively (as you must) the odds of success indicate I am an extreme outlier, which should not exist in the simplified 20% chance of success. If the success rate gets changed to 1% (or something similarly small) to learn each of the other two blues, I would imagine the math would make more sense since I haven't gotten to 100 tries (or perhaps more) for any given schematic.

ThePukk's Avatar


ThePukk
06.12.2012 , 08:34 PM | #13
No, they have surely broken it AGAIN. I've had streaks of bad luck, these things happen, but I've REd 60 green implants w/ a single discovery. Redoubt on a cunning implant of course..... LOL! plz fix this BioWare!

Telanis's Avatar


Telanis
06.12.2012 , 08:52 PM | #14
Quote: Originally Posted by Sothicus View Post
I would agree with this sentiment if it wasn't for the fact that I have yet to learn a 2nd blue version of a given item, having tried (for the most part at least 20 tries each) at 98.8% one or more of these should have resulted in a second blue. When you add this up collectively (as you must) the odds of success indicate I am an extreme outlier, which should not exist in the simplified 20% chance of success. If the success rate gets changed to 1% (or something similarly small) to learn each of the other two blues, I would imagine the math would make more sense since I haven't gotten to 100 tries (or perhaps more) for any given schematic.
I don't think you know what "extreme" means. As already noted, (0.8 ^ 20) is about 1.2%. There are 1 million-ish players, and hundreds of millions of RE attempts. 1.2% of hundreds of millions is millions of streaks just like yours. And it seems like all of you come here and post the same garbage. It needs to stop.

BioWare keeps stats on rolls, RE attempts, and so on. If this ever breaks, the deviation in the stats will make it apparent and they'll fix it. But an individual user will NEVER be able to legitimately claim there's a bug in the RE chance because you don't have access to any meaningful statistics, even if you keep track of your own (unlikely). You're one in a million.

For what it's worth, I had a streak of 50 once before I learnt the next version of an item. It sucks but it happens.

Veeius's Avatar


Veeius
06.12.2012 , 11:23 PM | #15
Quote: Originally Posted by Verce View Post
You're unlucky. Keep trying. There is no 100% of getting a schematic even in 100 tries, only 99%.

In some cases I had to re 50 times to get a schematic, an sometimes I got one almost immidiately.

It's not just "you're unlucky." I just had to RE 23 *GREEN* armor inserts to get the blue pattern. That should be about 1/2 of 1% of the time on a 20% RE. And if it was just that, I could chalk it up to really bad luck, but the last 4 or 5 RE's I've done have been similar. "Oh, 20% chance, well, you only have to RE 20 to 25 of them." "Oh, 10% chance... well... my advice is to forget it, and do something else." After 40 or 50 tries, I did exactly that.

Something is DRAMATICALLY wrong with the % chance for RE's.

steave's Avatar


steave
06.13.2012 , 03:16 AM | #16
If you were right, and even a low estimate of 10% of the people experiencing it comes here to post about it, you'd have a TON more people complaining about it. That alone proves that you are one of the 1 in a million cases.
Personally, I've raised armormech, armstech and cybertech to the 350-370 range and artifice to about 260 or so, and while raising them I REd everything I made. I have had very few cases of getting less then 2 successfull REs out of the 10 items I make in each bracket of 20 (1-21, 21-41 etc etc), and quite a few cases of getting 3-4, including several cases of getting all 3 blue items from a single set of 5 greens. The same has held true when I've just REd stuff that I want/need without leveling from making the items,
...And then I've also had to try 20 times before I got the first blue earpiece.

It's all down to luck, and when there are millions of streaks every day (assuming the above claim of 1 million players is correct - I haven't checked), these things WILL happen.
It is possible to change to code to adjust future chances based on past results (Sid mentioned in a presentation that they did that for at least one of the Civ games) so that extreme cases like this doesn't happen, but just because BW hasn't done that, that doesn't mean the percentages given are wrong - rather the opposite, making that change would cause the percentage to be off.

Telanis's Avatar


Telanis
06.13.2012 , 10:34 AM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by steave View Post
If you were right, and even a low estimate of 10% of the people experiencing it comes here to post about it, you'd have a TON more people complaining about it. That alone proves that you are one of the 1 in a million cases.
Personally, I've raised armormech, armstech and cybertech to the 350-370 range and artifice to about 260 or so, and while raising them I REd everything I made. I have had very few cases of getting less then 2 successfull REs out of the 10 items I make in each bracket of 20 (1-21, 21-41 etc etc), and quite a few cases of getting 3-4, including several cases of getting all 3 blue items from a single set of 5 greens. The same has held true when I've just REd stuff that I want/need without leveling from making the items,
...And then I've also had to try 20 times before I got the first blue earpiece.

It's all down to luck, and when there are millions of streaks every day (assuming the above claim of 1 million players is correct - I haven't checked), these things WILL happen.
It is possible to change to code to adjust future chances based on past results (Sid mentioned in a presentation that they did that for at least one of the Civ games) so that extreme cases like this doesn't happen, but just because BW hasn't done that, that doesn't mean the percentages given are wrong - rather the opposite, making that change would cause the percentage to be off.
They could actually balance it out so that the percentages stayed the same. For example they could clump it into groups of 20 REs. Let's say you only learn 3 schems after 18s REs, that means your next 2 are both guaranteed. On the flip side, if you learn 5 schems after 10 REs, then your next 10 are guaranteed to fail!

People would probably cry bloody murder if they did that, though -- "You mean I have to waste all these mats on purpose with a 0% chance until my next clump of 20?" -- so I don't see them doing it. If they went with only poor-streak limiting they'd have to reduce the nominal chance of success so that they didn't make it too easy to learn schems, which I also can't see them doing. I think the current pure randomness is best.

I do wish they would make a specific subforum to stuff all these "RE chance bug" threads into, though, so the rest of us didn't have to see them!

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.13.2012 , 03:36 PM | #18
Quote: Originally Posted by steave View Post
If you were right, and even a low estimate of 10% of the people experiencing it comes here to post about it, you'd have a TON more people complaining about it. That alone proves that you are one of the 1 in a million cases.
Personally, I've raised armormech, armstech and cybertech to the 350-370 range and artifice to about 260 or so, and while raising them I REd everything I made. I have had very few cases of getting less then 2 successfull REs out of the 10 items I make in each bracket of 20 (1-21, 21-41 etc etc), and quite a few cases of getting 3-4, including several cases of getting all 3 blue items from a single set of 5 greens. The same has held true when I've just REd stuff that I want/need without leveling from making the items,
...And then I've also had to try 20 times before I got the first blue earpiece.

It's all down to luck, and when there are millions of streaks every day (assuming the above claim of 1 million players is correct - I haven't checked), these things WILL happen.
It is possible to change to code to adjust future chances based on past results (Sid mentioned in a presentation that they did that for at least one of the Civ games) so that extreme cases like this doesn't happen, but just because BW hasn't done that, that doesn't mean the percentages given are wrong - rather the opposite, making that change would cause the percentage to be off.
I'm doing artifice and of the three crafting type you mentioned of your time, none of them are artifice. What I'm trying to point out in this thread is that something is amiss, whether it be Artificing itself, the crafting system itself or perhaps a person-to-person error, we don't know. But the math proves out that the tool tip of 20% after the first blue is learned is not accurate.

steave's Avatar


steave
06.14.2012 , 08:03 AM | #19
Read again, yes it is. That char is now up to 300 in artifice and maintaining the same pattern as all the other skills, and it's a very safe bet that they're using the same RE system/code for all skills. You are simply unlucky.

Darzil's Avatar


Darzil
06.14.2012 , 08:34 AM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by redzonewarrior View Post
Nope, this has to be broken. I don't care what maths you bring to the table, As a Sniper with Armstech crafting a lvl 20 custom sniper rifle, it is absurd that after nearly 40 attempts I have not made one with an augment slot.

Kaliyo is meant to be efficient with armstech, so it would indicate that bioware intended this to be a complimentary crewskill even as far as recommended. But seriously, I should be able to combine all 10 and merget them into 1 augmented rifle. But in its current form, it must simply be broken.
You will be able to in 1.3 I believe (or at least make an augment kit from the reverse engineered stuff). However, it's worth noting that a companion who is efficient at armstech just makes it faster, you want one with improved critical chance in order to be more likely to make one with an augment slot.