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Broken (or incorrect % chance of success) Reverse Engineering?

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Broken (or incorrect % chance of success) Reverse Engineering?

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.08.2012 , 04:36 PM | #1
I've been attempting to get two of the three blue versions of a Focus. Specifically, the Focus of Masterful Insight. I have the Overkill version, but neither of the other two. I have crafted and RE'd some 20-25 of these now and still have not received a schematic, though several successful augments. Is the learning chance really 20% or is there some hidden value that reduces this chance significantly?

Anyone have any thoughts?

Verce's Avatar


Verce
06.08.2012 , 04:42 PM | #2
You're unlucky. Keep trying. There is no 100% of getting a schematic even in 100 tries, only 99%.

In some cases I had to re 50 times to get a schematic, an sometimes I got one almost immidiately.
What can change the nature of a man?

Arilou_skiff's Avatar


Arilou_skiff
06.08.2012 , 04:46 PM | #3
The important thing to remember is that *how many things you have crafted does not affect your chance of getting a crit the next time*.

It's *always* 20%. Every time you RE a new object. Doesen't matter how many you've RE:ed before.

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.08.2012 , 05:29 PM | #4
Right.. it's always 20% regardless of the number you do. Therefore the math is real easy. If you RE 10 items, then the odds of you getting a schematic is as follows:

(1 - (4^10/5^10)) or 1 - the chance of failure.

To illustrate (and make my math easier) if I RE 5 items. My odds are not 100% that I will get a schematic. My odds are: 1- 4^5/5^5 or 1 - 1024/3125 = 1 - .328 = .672. Effectively If I have my companion craft 5 items, I should get a new schematic about 67% of the time.

If I craft 20 of these things like I have done, my odds go to 1-0.011 or about 98.8% chance of getting one.

Therefore, it's not just luck... the schematic should have popped up by now. There is another factor not accounted for or a mistake in the RE math.

I'm going to make 20 more of these. A new schematic should pop up. If not, there is a break in the math.

Most greens pop up a blue in the first few tries... I usually get a blue in 3 - 6 tries, which is about right for "average". In fact, I just started a different (higher level foci) and just got the blue Overkill version. I'm going to build 20 of these as well. Between the two foci, I should get two new blue schematics (non-Overkill versions). If not, there is direct empirical evidence that RE'ing is not as it seems.

Teykos's Avatar


Teykos
06.08.2012 , 05:41 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by Sothicus View Post
Right.. it's always 20% regardless of the number you do. Therefore the math is real easy. If you RE 10 items, then the odds of you getting a schematic is as follows:

(1 - (4^10/5^10)) or 1 - the chance of failure.

To illustrate (and make my math easier) if I RE 5 items. My odds are not 100% that I will get a schematic. My odds are: 1- 4^5/5^5 or 1 - 1024/3125 = 1 - .328 = .672. Effectively If I have my companion craft 5 items, I should get a new schematic about 67% of the time.

If I craft 20 of these things like I have done, my odds go to 1-0.011 or about 98.8% chance of getting one.

Therefore, it's not just luck... the schematic should have popped up by now. There is another factor not accounted for or a mistake in the RE math.

I'm going to make 20 more of these. A new schematic should pop up. If not, there is a break in the math.

Most greens pop up a blue in the first few tries... I usually get a blue in 3 - 6 tries, which is about right for "average". In fact, I just started a different (higher level foci) and just got the blue Overkill version. I'm going to build 20 of these as well. Between the two foci, I should get two new blue schematics (non-Overkill versions). If not, there is direct empirical evidence that RE'ing is not as it seems.
You, quite simply, have a sample size that is far too small and are trying to look at this too optimistically. You have a 20% chance of learning. Which means you have an 80% chance of NOT learning on each attempt.

There is a difference between a broken system and a sucky system.

This system is not broken. It does, however, suck because of how streaky it is.

There's also quite a few threads about this. This is not new. This thread has people who have written and run their own simulations showing that not only is long streaks of failure (as in 60+ failed attempts) possible, it is normal. (Well, it does after the first few pages of whining.)

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.09.2012 , 07:42 PM | #6
You are correct, it's a sucky system, not broken. It's clear to me now that the Devs have added some sort of hidden adjustment to the 20% once you've learned one of the three blue schematics.

Blackardin's Avatar


Blackardin
06.09.2012 , 10:32 PM | #7
Regardless of any math or computation, the reality is that every time one attempts to craft an item, be it the first or the one hundred and first, they have an 80% chance of failure. The predictable odds may change, but the percentage for success does not.
May the Schwartz be with you....

redzonewarrior's Avatar


redzonewarrior
06.10.2012 , 03:02 AM | #8
Nope, this has to be broken. I don't care what maths you bring to the table, As a Sniper with Armstech crafting a lvl 20 custom sniper rifle, it is absurd that after nearly 40 attempts I have not made one with an augment slot.

Kaliyo is meant to be efficient with armstech, so it would indicate that bioware intended this to be a complimentary crewskill even as far as recommended. But seriously, I should be able to combine all 10 and merget them into 1 augmented rifle. But in its current form, it must simply be broken.

steave's Avatar


steave
06.10.2012 , 10:01 AM | #9
You have had some bad luck, while others have had great luck at the same time. I've had several cases where I got all 3 blue schematics from REing a single set of 5 greens, and streaks with 2-3 crits in the same group of 5. Being as unlucky as you guys have been is VERY rare, when there's several thousands of players doing the same thing, even the very rare things will happen to someone.

For example, OP mentioned that he should had a 98.8% chance of getting an another blue schematic, which may be true (I didn't do the math myself), but that means there's a 1.2% chance that you won't. If we have, for example, 10 000 players, even only running one sample each, then statistics would indicate there should be 120 people in that sample that got the same result as you.

Sothicus's Avatar


Sothicus
06.12.2012 , 03:36 PM | #10
It's not just luck. I did some more experimentation and though I don't have numbers in front of me, almost all of the greens which I attempted to get the first Blue version did so within 5 tries, and all of them within 10 tries. Once I had learned a single blue of a particular green, that green will not RE another blue for 20 tries (and still haven't).

It's very clear that there is a % chance modifier for learning schematics once you learn one. The lucky ones are the few who have gotten multiple blues right away. There, either luck was on the player's side or was prior to the 1.2 patch or that particular item has a crafting bug where it spawns the blues without the modifier.

I should say, all of this experimentation I have done is on Foci/Shields/Generators as they are the only non-linear RE items that Artificers get. It is possible this is localized to Artificers only.