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How Math Works

Yaesive's Avatar

05.21.2012 , 11:07 AM | #61
I do have first apologies to everyone in this thread as I was traveling since I posted my comments and could not respond sooner to various future comments.

Quote: Originally Posted by Cerion View Post
I wish folks would stop quoting Ironcleaver's formula. While the formula itself is accurate, he entered the wrong parameters for the formula. a and b should = 0, NOT b=25.
I have to agree with you on the 0 and 25 logic. As a Six Sigma Green Belt it was my personal intention to place a stake in the ground to hope that the Development community would find a moment to at least comment in this thread, but you know how they are.

Quote: Originally Posted by Cerion View Post
The cumulative chance approach, while a decent simulation of learning from mistakes, seems to require a database addition for each person RE an item, and for each item. Not a quick undertaking for the devs. But I'm not a programmer, so I don't know.
Trust me on this we could be looking at one Developer spending months in what is commonly call FTE (Full Time Employment) on this one item.

Now on the other hand are we factoring as I implied life learning or as others comment probability tables? If we look at the comment below:

Quote: Originally Posted by Ironcleaver View Post
... we have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a "schematic or crit" in a single attempt - but us as players are stringing the events together so probability-chaining has to come into play.
I honest believe that this would require the additional mathematical formula and tables that I spoke of and again we see the loop back to the need for FTE development effort.

Quote: Originally Posted by Ironcleaver View Post
We know flipping a coin once is 50/50. Flipping the coin and asking for at least 1 in 25 flips be "heads" is another ballgame. Could you flip the coin 25 times and only ever get Tails, yes, but it is the odds are ungodly low of that happening. This is the issue people are having when they RE 40 items without hitting that 20% - it can happen but the probability is extremely low.
Quote: Originally Posted by DataBeaver View Post
In the real world the coin can land on its side, but when dealing with probability math, it's usually better to assume an idealized coin which has exactly 50% chance of both heads or tails, and thus an exactly 100% chance of turning up one way or the other when flipped.
Exactly cause in reality I think you nailed the head here (no pun intended), but again it is a probability table and not a life learning and improvement table that is being applied. Cause it did not factor the third outcome just either Heads or Tails.

Quote: Originally Posted by Ironcleaver View Post
I think the simplest way would be the addition of "Crafting XP".. it would only add a single variable to the object and would have pretty low overhead in programming. Basically if you RE 15 of a single item you gained enough XP for that item to unlock the next stage. Since going from green to blue gives three different schematics and going from blue to purple gives 5 (just an example) - just let the player choose which they wish to unlock.

Remove the randomness altogether but still make people invest time, effort and resources.

Clean and simple and wouldn't add much overhead to the code of done correctly.

[edit: basically the crafting xp would be the representation of the "simulation of learning from mistakes"]
This solution while you imply simply and clean creates a few issues and problems. First it does create the ability to choose the path you desire much like the Advanced Class and other similar items within the game, but it also opens the door to other factors that MMO's face, so the challenge is removed. Additionally here you assume a flat formula to go level to level. I need "X" resources or "Y" type to get what I desire. I do not need to worry about variables of sufficient funding and hunting. Additionally based strictly on your comment, it is a flat formula thus 15 times at level 1, 15 at level 2 and no accounting for knowledge gained. This also does not help to provide another avenue of possibility the AUGMENT ability.

This should be a factor as well. I see on the GTN and the HTN all the time AUGMENT items more than I see none. So those have to be accounted for and factored as well.

But remember in the end even RSA had problems with their probability tables. So not everything works every time.
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