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How Math Works


Cerion's Avatar


Cerion
05.14.2012 , 04:25 AM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by Cleet_Xia View Post
The lottery concept is true, some exceptionally long streaks of bad luck are going to happen. But how many threads have we seen here where someone was talking about not being able to get a proc from green to blue on a piece of lowbie gear? It's almost always someone trying to RE blue to purple for a piece of gear made from T6 mats. Who would continue crafting if a piece of lowbie gear requirred them to RE over 150 items for a blue proc?

There have been many posts on this forum from people claiming that it has taken them hundreds of RE attempts for several different paterns within a single craft, on the same toon. That's like "winning" the bad luck lottery ~ over and over. You obviously can't say that it has never happened, but what are the odds? And what are the odds that it would happen more than once? It's a pics or it didn't happen kind of scenario.

Granted there was a real problem worth complaining about with the "you already know that schematic" proc. Because it made it genuinely more difficult to get a specific purple patern for gear with a branching RE scheme.
Yes. People come here to talk about their bad luck. That doesn't necessarily mean the RNG is broken...it just means these people belong to the population of unlucky folks, a population that is almost guaranteed to exist I might add, given a large enough sample size.

Problem is, we have no hard data on the number of people experiencing bad luck...we have anecdotal evidence of 'many posts' on the forums, but that is by no means measurable, and is in fact quite prone to observer bias.

I have been following the depressing trials of one poster who's up to something like 100 RE for a Rakata relic. I feel bad for him for all the Alloy he's gone through. Trouble is, I don't know that we know the RE percentage for the Relic. My guess is that it's a smaller percentage than the known RE chances.

My understanding regarding reports of 100's of REs suggests this was prevalent before 1.2.

Let me reiterate, as I do in every post like this, that I'm actually not a fan of the RNG system. It is precisely BECAUSE it is working as intended that I don't like it. You get a population, through no fault of their own, who gets screwed due solely to the laws of probability.
Good will always triumph because Evil is lazy.

Ancaglon's Avatar


Ancaglon
05.14.2012 , 04:29 AM | #12
To the OP:

Your basic assumption is that the code is all working as intended and that people are just totally deluded (or are just lying).

That is not math. That is not rationality -- it is blind faith that everything within the game works as it's intended.

Your post tells us more about yourself than about anything else.

Geryboy's Avatar


Geryboy
05.14.2012 , 04:56 AM | #13
Quote: Originally Posted by Ironcleaver View Post
Law of Large Numbers


So after 25 attempts we have a near 100% Probability for a schematic. Issues is, a lot of people are REing a lot more then 25 items, some upwards of 200 items and still get nothing. The Probability of REing even 100 items at 20% chance of success, chance of failure so insanly small it's infinitesimal.

Sure Probability is Probability though....... :-/

It's 4am and Im bored. :-/
show me proof that people are really rveing 100 items. I call bs. they do like 15-20 an say it is like 100 felt.
Twinsnake Guardian / Payne Assassin / Cornhoolio OPerative ///// Jar'kai Sword

ChrisRedmond's Avatar


ChrisRedmond
05.14.2012 , 05:46 AM | #14
What we are forgetting is that there are SO MANY CRAFTERS!

With a RNG, anything can happen, extraordinary good luck and extraordinary bad luck as well, and with an enormous amount of crafters, it IS going to happen, and it IS going to happen soon.

Just because it happened to you does not mean it isn't random any more.
If you can't fix it, forget it.

ptwonline's Avatar


ptwonline
05.14.2012 , 06:20 AM | #15
I have a question about something that could possibly affect the probability.

On a successful RE, you can learn a pattern with a new prefix. Does that affect the odds of getting a different one? For example, for RE'ing greens there are 3 prefixes: Redoubt, Overkill, Critical. A 20% success rate means that each one should have a 6.67% chance on any RE. Say that you know 2 of those already. Are the odds of getting that 3rd one now 20% with each RE, or is it still 6.67%? In other words, does the second roll ignore the other possible outcomes, or do you simply receive a failure if you get an outcome that you've gotten before? That could certainly explain why there are many reports of low success rates.

As for getting Augment slots, I have noticed that the RNG is frustratingly quite varied. For example, when I was crafting enough of the lvl 20 orange augmented lightsabers for all of my chars and their force-using companions, I was doing them in batches of 5 at a time. The longest I went with no crits was 6 of these batches, and in one batch I got 3 crits.

Gadzuki's Avatar


Gadzuki
05.14.2012 , 06:28 AM | #16
My signature says it all.
Crafting is a lie, there is only RNG

Cerion's Avatar


Cerion
05.14.2012 , 06:31 AM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by ptwonline View Post
As for getting Augment slots, I have noticed that the RNG is frustratingly quite varied. For example, when I was crafting enough of the lvl 20 orange augmented lightsabers for all of my chars and their force-using companions, I was doing them in batches of 5 at a time. The longest I went with no crits was 6 of these batches, and in one batch I got 3 crits.
I crit my Elegant double-bladed lightsaber first time, first schematic I bought after 1.2. I was so shocked, I had to make another one just to be sure criting wasn't a guarantee on first time, lol.
Good will always triumph because Evil is lazy.

siegeshot's Avatar


siegeshot
05.14.2012 , 08:25 AM | #18
Quote: Originally Posted by Ironcleaver View Post
Law of Large Numbers
Bernoulli Trial
Online Bernoulli Calculator
  • 20% chance for schematic while REing (80% fail rate).
  • 25 attempts (or rolls of the dice) - online calculator limit
  • Can have Zero Successes
  • All can be successes,
Formula:
Code:
P(A) = ∑bi=a(ts+i)(p)s+i(1−s)t−s−i = ∑25i=0(25i)(.2)i(0.8)(25−i) = (250)(.2)0(0.8)25+(251)(.2)1(0.8)24+(252)(.2)2(0.8)23+(253)(.2)3(0.8)22+(254)(.2)4(0.8)21+(255)(.2)5(0.8)20+(256)(.2)6(0.8)19+(257)(.2)7(0.8)18+(258)(.2)8(0.8)17+(259)(.2)9(0.8)16+(2510)(.2)10(0.8)15+(2511)(.2)11(0.8)14+(2512)(.2)12(0.8)13+(2513)(.2)13(0.8)12+(2514)(.2)14(0.8)11+(2515)(.2)15(0.8)10+(2516)(.2)16(0.8)9+(2517)(.2)17(0.8)8+(2518)(.2)18(0.8)7+(2519)(.2)19(0.8)6+(2520)(.2)20(0.8)5+(2521)(.2)21(0.8)4+(2522)(.2)22(0.8)3+(2523)(.2)23(0.8)2+(2524)(.2)24(0.8)1+(2525)(.2)25(0.8)0
Result:
Code:
0.00377789318629571+0.02361183241434800+0.07083549724304400+0.13576803638250100+0.18668105002584400+0.19601510252713620+0.16334591877172800+0.11084187345224400+0.06234855381688725+0.02944237262043000+0.01177694904817200+0.00401486897140800+0.00117100344999400+0.00029275083649700+0.00006273228867600+0.00001150090324680+0.00000179700081000+0.00000023783834250+0.00000002642407900+0.00000000243335400+0.00000000018223590+0.00000000001075250+0.00000000000046000+0.00000000000001500+0.00000000000000000+0.00000000000000000 = 0.9999999998285
Probability of Success: 0.9999999998285%

So after 25 attempts we have a near 100% Probability for a schematic. Issues is, a lot of people are REing a lot more then 25 items, some upwards of 200 items and still get nothing. The Probability of REing even 100 items at 20% chance of success, chance of failure so insanly small it's infinitesimal.

Sure Probability is Probability though....... :-/

It's 4am and Im bored. :-/
I 100% agree with this. Thank you so much for posting. I've gotten up to 15+ of a max level color crystal and still nothing. It really bugs me. The schematic's available but after all these, I still can't get it. Then I work on lowbie stuff for an alt and nail every single recipe on the 1-3rd try.

The attempts need memory per item. That's all I'm saying.
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lunartic's Avatar


lunartic
05.14.2012 , 08:28 AM | #19
Quote: Originally Posted by Cleet_Xia View Post
My personal favorite is people claiming to have crafted and RE'd many hundreds of a specific item -

1) made from uber expenssive grade 6 mats,
a) that have very long gathering mission times, that have pretty poor yields even at max affection
b) typically not really "farm"able, without massive investments in time

2) requiring large quantities of those same mats

3) that have very long build times, when the most they can que up at a time is 30

4) and they supposedly did all that while spending credits on class skills, speeders & training, spaceship parts, while leveling an alt or two, browsing these forums, going to school/ working, & playing ME3/ CoD/ Skyrim/ and Hello Kitty.

TL;DR ~ It was B.S. before 1.2 & it's B.S. after 1.2
Hehe you know what i have actually crafted hundreds of the same lv48 aim shield cause i wanted the perfect one for dps/shield spec and one with pure tanking stats and got 10 of the variations pre1.2 and another post 1.2. Pretty sure that was at least 200 crafted cause i mainly ah the critted ones and only RE the no crits. And i still have 11 stacks of the blue mats i used saved for offhand schematics for other classes. =) Not everyone is poor, i buy 99% of my mats from the AH in a stack of 99. Craft them 25 at a time 3 time a day that's 75/day. Yes, some ppl do go that far to get the right stats =)

Cerion's Avatar


Cerion
05.14.2012 , 09:52 AM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by siegeshot View Post
I 100% agree with this. Thank you so much for posting. I've gotten up to 15+ of a max level color crystal and still nothing. It really bugs me. The schematic's available but after all these, I still can't get it. Then I work on lowbie stuff for an alt and nail every single recipe on the 1-3rd try.

The attempts need memory per item. That's all I'm saying.
Except that he entered the wrong parameters into the calculator. See my follow-up post.
Good will always triumph because Evil is lazy.