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Re chance only 10%?

Sathla's Avatar


Sathla
05.10.2012 , 08:36 AM | #1
http://i45.tinypic.com/ad2gyh.jpg

Did I do something wrong? Or are some patterns only 10% ?

Kishva - 60- Vigilance Guardian
- Sathla - 60 - Corruption Sorcerer

Pax Dominus - Pax Imperius

Sambril's Avatar


Sambril
05.10.2012 , 09:26 AM | #2
Some patterns are indeed only 10%. Most common in getting the second RE on wearable gear.

Ancaglon's Avatar


Ancaglon
05.10.2012 , 10:02 AM | #3
It's possible that even the 10% stated is not right -- I've been trying to learn the purple schematics from re-engineering the level 49 willpower tanking implant, and I'm up to about 35 attempts without success. If the 10% number is really correct, there's a 97.5% chance I'd have gotten a schematic by now.

(Yes, I know, gambler's fallacy, but as stated elsewhere, assuming that nothing has changed in the game code is just as bad a fallacy, because this isn't just the same fair die being tossed innumerable times).

psandak's Avatar


psandak
05.10.2012 , 10:24 AM | #4
Ancaglon,

you admit your fallacy but then you assume that something has changed to bolster that fallacy. you know what ***-u-me-ing does?

I saw this all the time on the WoW forums regarding alchemy mastery. I will tell you what I posted there:

yes, by the averages you should get a schematic on 1 in 10 REs, but "average" does not mean "even". Over hundreds and hundreds of 10% chance REs you will see that 1 in 10 reveal itself. And while some players might see that 1 in 10 reveal itself in 35 attempts, they are the exception not the rule.

secondly, a 10% chance of success is a 90% chance of failure. And since no one attempt affects any other attempt, your chances are ALWAYS 10% success 90% failure. Continuing with your "gambler's" mentality, this is not blackjack where you play through a deck (or multiple decks), you play a hand, then reshuffle and play another hand.

GnatB's Avatar


GnatB
05.10.2012 , 01:47 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by Sambril View Post
Some patterns are indeed only 10%. Most common in getting the second RE on wearable gear.
Yep, it is sort of peculiar that the RE's in which there's only a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 chance of getting a "good" verson have lower odds of even getting a schematic at all than the RE's that have a 1 in 1 chance or 1 in 3 of 2 in 3 chance.

Endymionsama's Avatar


Endymionsama
05.10.2012 , 01:58 PM | #6
I think its super retarded that these recipes that have 5 possible RE outcomes have a 10% rate. Its already bad enough that you have an even lower chance of getting what you want because its 5 of them, they have to go and lower the RE chance to 10%. I am so about to give up on synthweaving now. I been trying for a pair of gloves. Sitting at close to 80+ attempts now. While I do agree the system as a whole is easier to craft stuff than Aion, this one is alot more frustrating because I cant craft the whole time I am on. I have to wait on the stupid companions.

poypoyking's Avatar


poypoyking
05.11.2012 , 08:00 AM | #7
I am pretty happy with the way it is working now. Before the change it took me 71 tries to get the blue I wanted on an assault cannon, and then another 203 to get the purple I wanted.

I still have good and bad streaks since the 1.2 patch. When RE'ing on my armormech to get the level 49 vanguard chestpiece it took me 40 something (I was on my 5th batch of 10 chestpieces) to get the redoubt, and then 50 something to get my veracity to pop (the first purple I got). For the leggings the 3rd RE got me redoubt and the 4th RE of redoubt got me the veracity leggings I wanted.

It averages out, at least from what I have seen. I get annoyed when I get on a bad streak, but I know I will eventually get the recipe I want.

GnatB's Avatar


GnatB
05.11.2012 , 10:36 AM | #8
It sounds like you also got very lucky to get the *right* purple. I've trended towards the unlucky, and it's usually the last one I've gotten (I've got nearly a complete set of every type of "carbon fiber" crafteable off redoubt.)

Zhiroc's Avatar


Zhiroc
05.11.2012 , 10:40 AM | #9
From my records, I have made 152 RE attempts with 33 successes for an overall rate of 21.7% (these were all 20% attempts). One took 15 tries, and 3 took 12.

That said, part of what every economy tries to do is to implement some element of rarity. If everyone could just go out and find/buy the schematics they want, then everyone would be able to produce it, if they can get the mats to do so. If supply is not limited (and if demand is relatively low, which it will always be especially for orange gear that "lasts forever"), then supply/demand says that the prices will crash.

So, the question is, how would you want rarity imposed? Make it expensive as all heck for the schematics? Make it hard to RE? Make them drop-only? Make certain mats hard to get?

GnatB's Avatar


GnatB
05.11.2012 , 11:26 AM | #10
1. They already did make certain mats hard to get
2. I'd argue they should reverse the %'s.

Linear stuff and tier 1 should be 10%. Tier 2 should be 20%.