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Population Estimates for the Top 20 US Servers

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
Population Estimates for the Top 20 US Servers

Sanxxx's Avatar


Sanxxx
05.11.2012 , 07:39 AM | #101
Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
wow just wow

First off I have no stance on the game one way or the other, but man you people must be really bored

It is so funny how people see something like this, run with it and post as if it is some kind of a good assumption of anything.

If is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).

The above example: Does it not bother anyone at all that this is completely and totally made up?

Also to take into account that all server pop caps are not the same doing any calaculation based off of a wrong assumption and made up formaulas is just completely without purpose

You know anyone can make assumption and support a formula when you already know the end answer (ie population total that was reported)

And I can tell you in absolute fact when I did my server it is completely wrong

I really wish people would get lives and actually just play the game instead of spending so much time with absolute garbage like this

Nothing will be correct, or even close to accurate unless it is released officially, which it never will be.

I'm sure in another month some other "genius" will come out with something similar just like the past "geniuses" who tried to figure it out in the past months
The OP posted data and showed where she made assumptions and did not proclaim them as facts.

You on the other hand clearly state that 'take into account that all server pop caps are not the same' and have no evidence to back it up. I mean what dev in their right mind would use a consistent measure for 'Standard'

crazysam's Avatar


crazysam
05.11.2012 , 08:27 AM | #102
What pisses me off about this is that when I started playing on day 1...well actually day -5, I created my chars on a ''Light'' server, wich became ''full'' in about a week and 2 months later, due to BW stupidity my server was deserted by half the players.

Thanks again BW for not merging servers and/or allowing server transfers.

I do believe SWTOR just lost about 25% of their subs for this reason and the fact that they never implemented ''LFG'' matchmakers system.

Players are used to play games that offer these services and they want to be able to us them if need be. Lot of players will say:

-Whats the point in paying 15$ a month if I cant change server to play with my friends and cant find groups like I did in other game?


People are not patient anymore. They want everything NOW and BW was blind to it.

Im not saying SWTOR will fail, but BW had a very strong hand in his game and failed to play it well.

Scorpienne's Avatar


Scorpienne
05.11.2012 , 08:40 AM | #103
Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
wow just wow
First off I have no stance on the game one way or the other, but man you people must be really bored
Not really. I just like using my brain to figure stuff out, namely, how much should I worry about server merges. That was my original thought process that led to this whole exercise. I have plenty of work to do at my real job. :-)

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
If is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).

The above example: Does it not bother anyone at all that this is completely and totally made up?
Actually, it's not completely and totally made up... but it does rely on a certain number of assumptions that are at least somewhat uncertain.

So it starts here... http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.co...er-status.html

This guy actually did a lot of work. He wrote a program that told him whenever a server changed status from light -> standard -> heavy -> very heavy -> full and vice versa. For a long while (over 100 data points) he would go in and /who every level band on both sides on the server right after it changed status. That way he has some data that says, "when a server goes from light to standard, it usually has about 500 total active characters on it." Of course, running the /whos takes a while, and many people can log in and out during that 5-10 minute time that it takes to run the /whos. So that's why he graphed the data (first graph) and that there is a smear of data points.

So my reasoning was that if a server has a population of light, it's probably got something less than about 500 people on it. I don't have any idea what that number is... but I can estimate it as something between 0 and 500, so for the sake of argument, let's take the median of 250.

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
Also to take into account that all server pop caps are not the same doing any calaculation based off of a wrong assumption and made up formaulas is just completely without purpose
Hmm... the formulas aren't really "made up", they're a pretty standard use of weighted averages actually. If you're interested in more information about how they might be applied, Wikipedia has a decent starting point article on weighted means.

As for server caps, you're right, they may be different. That may be what "smears" the data out on the graph I mentioned above.

For what it's worth, what I've got is public. You're welcome to perform a different analysis.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1WmdZUFE#gid=2

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
You know anyone can make assumption and support a formula when you already know the end answer (ie population total that was reported)
Actually, I'm a scientist by trade, so I started with the data and ended up at the conclusion, not vice versa. My math says that I can find about 100,000 active characters on as a 24 hour average over the last two weeks. Someone else suggested that 10% active was a good number... I have absolutely no information as to whether that's a good estimate or not, and I believe (hope) that I was clear that it was completely uncertain.

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
And I can tell you in absolute fact when I did my server it is completely wrong
Interesting to know. I belive that this estimate is pretty unreliable on the very low phi servers (less than 0.98 for sure, less than about 1.2 probably). The thing is that I don't know what light means other than less than about 500. It could be 4 or 400, so I could be an order of magnitude off on the low end.

It seems within 30% of true of my server. What server are you on? What numbers do you get when you /who the server by level band (both factions) during peak and non-peak hours? How off are the numbers?

My analysis is all in a public google doc. I welcome you (and everyone) to take a look and propose a different set of assumptions or analysis method.

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
I really wish people would get lives and actually just play the game instead of spending so much time with absolute garbage like this
I'm sorry you find my analysis unhelpful. <shrug> I think it's probably within an order of magnitude of being right, and more like within probably 30% of being right. That's about the best I can do given the publicly available data and my limited free time.

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
Nothing will be correct, or even close to accurate unless it is released officially, which it never will be.
I completely agree that nothing will be completely correct until and unless Bioware releases demographic information. In the meantime, I think this information, while not completely accurate and with various uncertainties and assumptions, is useful for people who want to think about moving to different servers, or who want to prepare themselves for server merges, transfers, or closings. One of my favorite scientists once said "all models are wong, some are useful." I think this is at least useful. :-) If the analysis is not reliable enough for your particular needs, then my feelings won't be hurt if you don't use it.

Quote: Originally Posted by mangarrage View Post
I'm sure in another month some other "genius" will come out with something similar just like the past "geniuses" who tried to figure it out in the past months
I hope so. I'd like to have more sorts of independent analysis. Even if I don't agree with the methods or assumptions, just considering the problem is often enough to lead to additional insight.


Paige

zombuu's Avatar


zombuu
05.11.2012 , 08:43 AM | #104
Estimated Population in the next 2-3 month = 0

Gerandar's Avatar


Gerandar
05.11.2012 , 08:49 AM | #105
I like how my server Anchorhead is no longer anywhere near the top 20, it was once full with queues, or at least almost always heavy, now its never above light.

Server transfers won't fix anything, do you think there going to let us transfer to servers like the fatman? no there most likely going to give servers like the fatman free transfers to our servers, who in there right mind would leave a good server in population to go to one of our ghost towns?

Elboc's Avatar


Elboc
05.11.2012 , 08:50 AM | #106
I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.
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zombuu's Avatar


zombuu
05.11.2012 , 08:56 AM | #107
Quote: Originally Posted by Elboc View Post
I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.
EVE-Online nuff said

-Dench's Avatar


-Dench
05.11.2012 , 08:59 AM | #108
Quote: Originally Posted by Elboc View Post
I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.
That would be the best choice, but SWTOR cant support it. The engine has no balls. Remember Ilum? Between the planet itself and 50 players in one area, the engine would bog down, and occasionally just stop processing traffic.

This game is bottle necked by its own weak backbone. The engine cant handle much, so here we are, perpetually stuck in limited instances and low pop servers.

So, what has BW done? they essentially trashed Ilum, because its not fixable, and are now not talking about it anymore. What can they do? the games engine simply cant run it correctly.
New England Bay - NE|B - A New England based guild http://newenglandbay.com/

xenofire's Avatar


xenofire
05.11.2012 , 08:59 AM | #109
Quote: Originally Posted by Elboc View Post
I really wish the technology was there to have 10-15,000 people on a server and then just cut the servers in half. That would make the game feel so much more alive.
I can't handle denova with 100 people in there, I can't imagine 1000.... And I have a beastly machine, so I should correctly state BIOWARE can't handle denova with 100 people in there, much less 1000.
Guildmaster of The Remnant on The Harbinger
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zombuu's Avatar


zombuu
05.11.2012 , 09:09 AM | #110
Quote: Originally Posted by xenofire View Post
I can't handle denova with 100 people in there, I can't imagine 1000.... And I have a beastly machine, so I should correctly state BIOWARE can't handle denova with 100 people in there, much less 1000.
What you expect of Heroengine ?