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Population Estimates for the Top 20 US Servers

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > General Discussion
Population Estimates for the Top 20 US Servers

Scorpienne's Avatar


Scorpienne
05.08.2012 , 02:35 PM | #1
TL;DR VERSION - READ BELOW TO SEE HOW I GOT THESE NUMBERS AND SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING AT THEM


UPDATED 6/15/2012

These numbers represent the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins over the past two weeks. This isn't the number of subscribers, or number of characters, it's an estimate of how many people are actually logged in at once. Transfer status is noted also (from xxx means the server is a destination server for server xxx, to xxx means that the server is an origin server that is being directed to the xxx server.)

Top 20 US Servers
  • The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2257.5 Destination for: Cho Mai, Firkrann Crystal, Hedarr Soongh, Kinrath Spider, Rwookrrorro, The Deadweight, Thendys Noori
  • Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1676.25 Destination for: Axial Park, Eidolon Security, Fort Garnik, Hanharr, Keetael, Keller's Void, Khoonda Militia, Ki-Ta Kren, Nathema, Sedyn Kyne, Telos Restoration Project, The Defenestrator
  • Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 1030 Destination for: Darth Xedrix, Fa'athra, Lord Praven, Mask of Nihilus, Master Gnost-Dural, Master Zhar Lestin, Perlemian Trade Route
  • The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 800 Destination for: Empress Teta, Gauntlet of Kressh, Kaiburr Crystal, Krath, Namadii Corridor, Soresu, Wall of Light, Zaalbar
  • The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 660 Destination for: Kath Hound, Lord Adraas, Rubat Crystal, Sanctum of the Exalted, Shien
  • Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 650 Destination for: Assassins of Sion, Juyo, Kaas City, Kathol Rift, Krayiss Obelisk, Master Dorak, The Constant, The Corsair, The Courageous, Whitebeam Run, Zez-Kai Ell
  • Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 520 Destination for: Ajunta Pall, Ven Zallow
  • Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 460 To The Ebon Hawk
  • The Bastion (PvP US West) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Black Vulkars, Daragon Trail, Dark Reaper, Infinite Empire, Mandalore the Indomitable, Nadd's Sarcophagus, Rakata Mind Prison, Shadowtown, The Crucible Pits, The Maw, Destination for: The Swiftsure, Warriors of the Shadow, Wound in the Force
  • Ajunta Pall (RP PvP US West) Population ≈ 370 To Jung Ma
  • The Swiftsure (PvP US West) Population ≈ 350 To The Bastion
  • Prophecy of the Five (PvP US East) Population ≈ 330 Destination for: Bondar Crystal, Davik's Estate, Death Wind Corridor, Gardens of Talla, Infinity Gate, Iron Citadel, Naddist Rebels, Saber of Exar Kun, Sword of Ajunta Pall, Terentatek, The Twin Spears, Veela, Anchorhead, Helm of Graush, Port Nowhere, Vulkar Highway
  • The Shadowlands (PvE US East) Population ≈ 310 Destination for: Dreshdae Cantina, Elysium, Giradda the Hutt, Grand Master Zym, Krayt Dragon, Sith Meditation Sphere, The Razor
  • Begeren Colony (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 300 Destination for: Lord Ieldis, Vrook Lamar
  • Sanctum of the Exalted (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 270 To The Ebon Hawk
  • Krayt Dragon (PvE US East) Population ≈ 260 To The Shadowlands
  • Lord Ieldis (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 250 To Begeren Colony
  • Mind Trick (PvE US East) Population ≈ 250 Likely Canderous Ordo, Jedi Covenant, or The Shadowlands
  • Public Test (PvE US East) Population ≈ 250 Likely Canderous Ordo, Jedi Covenant, or The Shadowlands
  • Anchorhead (PvP US East) Population ≈ 247.5 To Prophecy of the Five

Top 20 Worldwide Servers
  • The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2257.5 Destination for: Cho Mai, Firkrann Crystal, Hedarr Soongh, Kinrath Spider, Rwookrrorro, The Deadweight, Thendys Noori
  • Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1676.25 Destination for: Axial Park, Eidolon Security, Fort Garnik, Hanharr, Keetael, Keller's Void, Khoonda Militia, Ki-Ta Kren, Nathema, Sedyn Kyne, Telos Restoration Project, The Defenestrator
  • Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 1030 Destination for: Darth Xedrix, Fa'athra, Lord Praven, Mask of Nihilus, Master Gnost-Dural, Master Zhar Lestin, Perlemian Trade Route
  • The Jedi Tower (PvE EUR German) Population ≈ 950 Destination for: Dreypa's Oubliette, Handmaidens of Atris, Murakami Orchid, Opila Crystal, Stereb Cities, The Cinzia
  • Tomb of Freedon Nadd (PvP EUR English) Population ≈ 920 Destination for: Ahto City, Chuundar, Hex Droid, Kai-kan, Niman,Scepter of Ragnos, Senator Contispex, Starstorm One, Tassaa Bareesh, The Exile's Crystal, The Kumumgah, The Ravager, The Shadow Runner, Tott Doneeta, Trayus Academy, Ula Vii, Uthar Wynn, Basilisk Droid, Bloodworthy, Legions of Lettow
  • The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 800 Destination for: Empress Teta, Gauntlet of Kressh, Kaiburr Crystal, Krath, Namadii Corridor, Soresu, Wall of Light, Zaalbar
  • The Red Eclipse (PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 780 Destination for: Dxun Battle Circle, Eye of Ashlanae, Flames of the Crucible, Goluud Corridor, Kellian Jarro, Ludo Kressh, Rogue Moon, Sluis Shipyards, The Arkanian Legacy
  • Gav Daragon (RP PvE APAC) Population ≈ 680 Unknown
  • Dalborra (PvE APAC) Population ≈ 660 Unknown
  • The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 660 Destination for: Kath Hound, Lord Adraas, Rubat Crystal, Sanctum of the Exalted, Shien
  • Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 650 Destination for: Assassins of Sion, Juyo, Kaas City, Kathol Rift, Krayiss Obelisk, Master Dorak, The Constant, The Corsair, The Courageous, Whitebeam Run, Zez-Kai Ell
  • Master Dar'Nala (PvP APAC) Population ≈ 580 Unknown
  • Dune Bantha (PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 560 Likely The Red Eclipse
  • Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 520 Destination for: Ajunta Pall, Ven Zallow
  • Huntmaster (RP PvP EUR French) Population ≈ 480 Unknown
  • Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 460 To The Ebon Hawk
  • Vanjervalis Chain (RP PvE EUR German) Population ≈ 440 Destination for: Cassus Fett, Zayne Carrick
  • Mantle of the Force (PvE EUR French) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Hssiss, Kissai Caste, Phateem Halls of Knowledge, Vodo-Siosk Baas,
  • The Bastion (PvP US West) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Black Vulkars, Daragon Trail, Dark Reaper, Infinite Empire, Mandalore the Indomitable, Nadd's Sarcophagus, Rakata Mind Prison, Shadowtown, The Crucible Pits, The Maw, Destination for: The Swiftsure, Warriors of the Shadow, Wound in the Force
  • The Progenitor (RP PvE EUR English) Population ≈ 420 Destination for: Shaltin Tunnels, Trask Ulgo


HOW I GOT THOSE NUMBERS, WHY I DID THIS, THINGS TO CONSIDER, OTHER STATS:

Originally, this exercise was to try and predict the path of server transfer. Now, that process is mostly done and I'm monitoring the population out of simple observational curiousity.

As you may already know, www.torstatus.net codes server status as

1 = Light
2 = Standard
3 = Heavy
4 = Very Heavy
5 = Full

It then checks server status on all the servers every hour and records that number. It calculates the average of all of those hourly recordings for the last 14 days and reports than number as "". (http://www.torstatus.net/about)

This guy went and did a *lot* of work. Basically, he wrote a program to tell him when a server changed status, and then he went and /whoed the population of the server to see what actual population number is associated with what status.

http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.co...er-status.html

He estimates, with plenty of variability in the data, that:

Light is up to about 500
Standard is up to about 1,500
Heavy is up to about 2,250-2,500(?) (Let's call this 2375 for now...)
Very Heavy is up to about 3,000
Full is greater than about 3,000

If you look at his data, you can see that sometimes a heavy server has 2000 people on it and sometimes it has 2500 people on it. Same kind of range (or more) for the other server statuses. Part of this is because people log on and log off while he's /who-ing the population, and part of this is because different servers might have different population levels and/or Bioware may alter those population levels. (So standard might be 1,500 on one server and 1,000 on a different server, or 1,500 today and 1,000 a month ago - we don't know.)

I think you can then use the two to estimate server population.

If is greater than 0, add the % is greater than 0 x 250 (where 250 is the average of 0 and the top end of the "light" status.)

So for Kaiburr Crystal, where the is 0.97, you'd have (0.97 x 250) and come up with a theoretical average population of 243.


The low phi servers are the ones that this analysis is most uncertain for, I think. I'm using 250 as my value for light. That could be, in all reality, 4 lost people or 499 people who are logged in all the time. So if my estimate is 250, the likely range is from 0.10x to 2x that. I can't detect a population less than a phi of 1, so if a server is really deserted, I can't tell. This is an uncertainty in the analysis that may lead to an overestimation or underestimation in the number of concurrent logins.

If is greater than 1, start with 250 plus the % is greater than 1 x 1000 (where 1000 is the average of the top end of light = 500, and the top end of standard = 1500).

So for my server, The Ebon Hawk, where the is 1.41, you'd add 250 plus (0.41 x 1000) and come up with a theoretical average number of concurrent logins of 660.


If is greater than 2, then add 250 + 1000 + the % is greater than 2 x 1937.5 (where 1937.5 is the average of the top end of standard = 1500, and the average top end of heavy 2375).

So for The Fatman, where the is 2.52, you'd add 250 + 1000 + plus (0.52 x 1937.5) and come up with a theoretical average number of concurrent logins of 2258.


Math is here - you're welcome to look at it yourself and see if you can find a better way to analyze this data. You'll also see tabs for previous analyses as well as summary tables for total and average populations by server type and region and a tab with transfer info.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...WmdZUFE#gid=15

That means if you take the numbers from Torstatus representing the average population over the last two weeks for the top 20 US and worldwide servers you end up with the list above.

The catch here is realizing that this estimate is based on a 14 day average status, so that's dead slack times and peak times. The theoretical average population UNDERESTIMATES the peak population and OVERESTIMATES the off-peak population.

Keep in mind this is the average number of people logged in - it's probable that not every player is logged in all the time. If you think that 50% of the population is logged in all the time, double this number for the number of subscribers. If you think that 10% of the population is logged in all the time, then multiply this number by 10x for the number of subscribers. If you think that 5% of the population is likely to be concurrently logged in, then you end up with about 1.3 million subscribers, more or less.

For instance, if I say that there are 600 people, on average, logged into server X, in real life that might mean:

400 Stay at home parents login at noon and logout at 4.
600 School kids login at 4 and logout at 8.
800 Working people login at 8 and logout at 12 midnight.
800 College students login at 12 midnight and logout at 4.
600 Insomniacs login at 4 and logout at 8.
400 3rd shift workers login at 8 and logout at 12 noon.

So that's 600 AVERAGE LOGINS but it's 3,600 SUBSCRIBERS.

So here are some summary statistics:
Total estimated worldwide average number of simultaneous concurrent logins of all servers (24 hr average over the last 2 weeks as of 6/15/2012).
65,061

This is the 3rd time since I've been tracking numbers that there has been an increase, and this is the largest increase thus far (Wednesday was 62,923).

SERVERS BY AREA
APAC 3
EUR English 45
EUR French 16
EUR German 30
US East 82
US West 42
Total 218



SERVERS BY TYPE
PvE 112
PvP 82
RP PvE 18
RP PvP 6
Total 218

This is a full reporting of all servers.

LOGINS BY AREA
APAC 1,920
EUR English 12,990
EUR French 4,545
EUR German 8,338
US East 25,219
US West 12,050
Total 65,061

LOGINS BY TYPE
PvE 33,191
PvP 23,678
RP PvE 6,080
RP PvP 2,113
Total 65,061

Here's another way to look at the logins, by transfer status. Origin means that BW has officially started outbound transfers from this server. Destination meand that BW has officially started inbound transfers to this server. Origin Likely means that BW has NOT made transfers available to this server, but I think that they are likely to (note that this is my personal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official). Unknown means that BW is not likely to have transfers either to or from this server in what I think is the forseeable future (APAC servers and the EUR RP-PvP servers, again, note that this is my peronsal opinion, guess, estimation, and not in any way official).

LOGINS BY SERVER TRANSFER STATUS
Destination 13,764
Origin 37,803
Origin Likely 10,600
Unknown 2,895
Total 65,061

These are the average number of logins per server.

AVG LOGINS BY AREA
APAC 640
EUR English 289
EUR French 284
EUR German 278
US East 308
US West 287
Grand Avg 298

AVG LOGINS BY TYPE
PvE 296
PvP 289
RP PvE 338
RP PvP 352
Grand Avg 298

AVG LOGINS BY Transfer Status
Destination 688
Origin 250
Origin Likely 259
Unknown 483
Grand Avg 298


Check it out - our destination servers are *double* the size of the average server! Pretty neat.


The only real way to get at these demographics is for BW to release their data, but I don't know if they are willing or able to do so. The next best way is go in and /who the server a bunch, but I don't have time for that. This analysis is a shortcut to get at that data without nearly as much work. I hope I've been clear where I'm making assumptions and what those assumptions are. If you've got a better analysis, or a way to refine some of these assumptions, I'd love to know about it.

Paige

Beermefatty's Avatar


Beermefatty
05.08.2012 , 02:38 PM | #2
My server is dead and it sucks, thats my thoughts.

Xpar's Avatar


Xpar
05.08.2012 , 02:40 PM | #3
Quote: Originally Posted by Beermefatty View Post
My server is dead and it sucks, thats my thoughts.
^

same situation here

SWImara's Avatar


SWImara
05.08.2012 , 02:40 PM | #4
Quote: Originally Posted by Scorpienne View Post
I find it fascinating that the RP servers, though a tiny fraction of the population of total servers, have some of the higher populations.

Thoughts?
I've little to say about your numbers in general but thought I'd comment on the RP server bit. In games that I've played since WoW I've found RP servers generally to be a pretty solid place community-wise with a typically steady and solid population. To broadly and crudely generalize, RPers tend to focus on very different things than the rest of the MMO crowd and appear significantly less fickle when it comes to game/server hopping.

Regarding the numbers, my server's not on that list but I never have any problems finding PvE or PvP activities.

Mallorik's Avatar


Mallorik
05.08.2012 , 02:43 PM | #5
Very depressing, my server was full with ques at launch, at 6th place a month before 1.2, 16th place 2 weeks ago, now its not even in the top 20. But im sure some fanboy will point out that its somehow my fault.

Muskaan's Avatar


Muskaan
05.08.2012 , 02:50 PM | #6
Well compiled post. Gives the real picture pretty well.
50 Sorc Healer/DPS
- We Brake For Nobody - (RIP)
Empire US-West PvE soon-to-be defunct raiding guild
(5/5 Eternity Vault HM, 5/5 Karagga's Palace HM)

tloops's Avatar


tloops
05.08.2012 , 02:52 PM | #7
woot..my server averages 109 people...so sad
TOR...the best single player game on the market

Saregon's Avatar


Saregon
05.08.2012 , 02:56 PM | #8
The Ebon Hawk FTW!

We are "healthy" I think. Not too heavy, and not light by any means.

Just right.
Master Saregon - 55 Jedi Sage
55 Jedi Shadow | 55 Jedi Guardian | 55 Gunslinger | 55 Scoundrel
55 Sith Assassin | 55 Mercenary | 55 Sniper | 55 Operative

N e v e r . F o r g e t

Muskaan's Avatar


Muskaan
05.08.2012 , 02:59 PM | #9
I still don't see why they decided that a full server should have around 3000 people. Based on studies calculated on WoW, on an average around 10% of a server's pop is online at a time. So, that's around 300 people on an average on a full server. That's very low.
50 Sorc Healer/DPS
- We Brake For Nobody - (RIP)
Empire US-West PvE soon-to-be defunct raiding guild
(5/5 Eternity Vault HM, 5/5 Karagga's Palace HM)

clintcasey's Avatar


clintcasey
05.08.2012 , 02:59 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by Scorpienne View Post
I find it fascinating that the RP servers, though a tiny fraction of the population of total servers, have some of the higher populations.


Paige
Makes perfect sense. RPers are the people who spend the most time sitting down and talking to people in game. Even though they make up a smaller portion of the population, they also spend much more time in game just socializing with other people than people on generic PVP and PVE servers.
Al'den, Jedi Guardian, Level 50, The Bastion, 4/4 EC HM
Jindo, Mercinary, Level 50, The Swiftsure, 3/4 EC HM
Jiindo, Power Tech, Level 27, Squadron 367