Please upgrade your browser for the best possible experience.

Chrome Firefox Internet Explorer
×

Reverse Engineering Broken - or am I crazy???

STAR WARS: The Old Republic > English > Crew Skills
Reverse Engineering Broken - or am I crazy???

Saaz's Avatar


Saaz
04.15.2012 , 09:59 AM | #1
I know that some people have bad luck.... but

I was making a Might Hilt 9 for an alt.

The tooltip states 20% chance to discover.

I have made approximately 22 hilts trying to get the discovery.......

Using my basic math I think the probability of that happening is less than 1 percent.

Am I just unlucky or is this broken?

Kruxxor's Avatar


Kruxxor
04.15.2012 , 10:02 AM | #2
Just bad luck.

You have a 20% chance of it re-ing to the next one.

Because you make 5, doesn't mean 1 will definitely re into the other.

You have 20% chance per one you re....

So 80% of the time you re you will not successfully get the new schematic.

Take dice for example, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, you roll it 6 times and never get a 6. Or you roll is 6 times and you always get a 6. The chance of getting a 6 is still 1 in 6.

Saaz's Avatar


Saaz
04.15.2012 , 10:08 AM | #3
But my specific scenario is (0.8)^22 which equals 0.00738 probability of occuring....

or 0.738%

Just seems crazy.

I'll make another 5 and see how I go

Saaz's Avatar


Saaz
04.15.2012 , 10:13 AM | #4
another 5

makes it 0.241%

---------------------


sorry finally got it around 33ish odd hilts

Valkyriesuki's Avatar


Valkyriesuki
04.15.2012 , 10:46 AM | #5
your mistake is thinking past failures have any effect on future attempts.

and as i reread your post i realize you are calculating odds on having 33 bad rolls.. these are two different statistics. while you may have a <1% chance of losing 33 times in a row, you still have a %20 chance of winning the next time.

Thebigkabooa's Avatar


Thebigkabooa
04.15.2012 , 10:57 AM | #6
Your math is off. You don't dip under 1% probability until you make 101 and fail.

Arzoo's Avatar


Arzoo
04.15.2012 , 11:04 AM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by Thebigkabooa View Post
Your math is off. You don't dip under 1% probability until you make 101 and fail.

His math is fine. He calculated the odds of not getting the recipe after however many tries, which is (1 - odds_of_failure) ^ number_of_tries.

Darknscub's Avatar


Darknscub
04.15.2012 , 12:08 PM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by Saaz View Post
I know that some people have bad luck.... but

I was making a Might Hilt 9 for an alt.

The tooltip states 20% chance to discover.

I have made approximately 22 hilts trying to get the discovery.......

Using my basic math I think the probability of that happening is less than 1 percent.

Am I just unlucky or is this broken?
Why do lame ppl keep complaining about the RE rate it use to be 4%. So then a bunch of lame noobs complain, so they up it to 10 and 20% and you still complain. You RE'd 22 do you want a medal 22 is nothing, if it was made as easy as the whining minority want crafting would be lame.

But then if it was made even easier so someone with half a brain cell could do it you would complain that it cost too much to send your companions out and the drop rates on rares were to low.

So shut up stop ************ and keep trying you will get the craft if you want it bad enough

kaboro's Avatar


kaboro
04.15.2012 , 12:22 PM | #9
Quote: Originally Posted by Darknscub View Post
Why do lame ppl keep complaining about the RE rate it use to be 4%. So then a bunch of lame noobs complain, so they up it to 10 and 20% and you still complain. You RE'd 22 do you want a medal 22 is nothing, if it was made as easy as the whining minority want crafting would be lame.

But then if it was made even easier so someone with half a brain cell could do it you would complain that it cost too much to send your companions out and the drop rates on rares were to low.

So shut up stop ************ and keep trying you will get the craft if you want it bad enough
wow pvp forums are that way ---->
I guess you can take a player out of the barrens but cant take the barrens out of the player.
Thats what happens when bioware makes harvesting and crafting attractive for the kind of people that were usually staying out of it.

kaboro's Avatar


kaboro
04.15.2012 , 12:30 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by Saaz View Post
I know that some people have bad luck.... but

I was making a Might Hilt 9 for an alt.

The tooltip states 20% chance to discover.

I have made approximately 22 hilts trying to get the discovery.......

Using my basic math I think the probability of that happening is less than 1 percent.

Am I just unlucky or is this broken?
I had the same thing happening repeatedly always on one category of items, while the other categories work too often.
On some categories the 20% is actually 50% while on others the 20% is actually 3-5% and its pretty consistent, always works like that on the same categories.
I assume on a whole the rate is correct, but not for the individual item categories.
I will give it more time to see if the trend persists and also try it on my alts.
If it does persist i will post a bug ticket or whatever its called in this game.