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Is TOR done growing?


JediMasterShake's Avatar


JediMasterShake
01.16.2012 , 04:52 PM | #1
We were having a discussion about the MMO genre in another thread, but it got deleted for other reasons. I think it's an interesting one to have, so maybe those folks want to rejoin it here.

I was saying that I didn't think there were many gamers out there left for TOR to snag, and I thought the game's subs would decline from here on out. Someone remarked that WoW grew over many years, and I made the point that the market was just different then - younger and less saturated.

Basically, most people who would be inclined to pick up and play TOR have already done so. Sure there are new/young gamers out there who could be drawn in, but the majority of people who would likely play a game like (Bioware fans, MMO fans, Star Wars fans, general gamers) have either heard about the game, had a friend play, seen a video on youtube, etc., and they've made their choice to play or not to play. Considering how long it's been hyped up, I just don't see many "undecideds" still out there.

I think that the game will lose 200-400k subs this month, which would still put them at a healthy 1.5+ million. But I definitely believe this game is done growing.
Make a fast break, or that'll be the last mistake that <bleep> will make, is what you get for messin' with
Master Shake.

Smallways's Avatar


Smallways
01.16.2012 , 04:56 PM | #2
The game has been out for 3 weeks.

Papazooki's Avatar


Papazooki
01.16.2012 , 04:56 PM | #3
The game will have a BIG decline on the 20th, will it grow afterwards? Doubtful.
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R.I.P SWTOR: Dec 20th, 2011 - Jan 20th, 2012. Such a short life.

JediMasterShake's Avatar


JediMasterShake
01.16.2012 , 04:57 PM | #4
Quote: Originally Posted by Smallways View Post
The game has been out for 3 weeks.
People have been playing for one month and three days. Plus, what exactly is your point? Did you read my post?
Make a fast break, or that'll be the last mistake that <bleep> will make, is what you get for messin' with
Master Shake.

Mannic's Avatar


Mannic
01.16.2012 , 04:59 PM | #5
The game will continue to sell units, of course, but in order to grow it has to sell those units faster than existing players unsubscribe. I doubt that will be the case. MMO's don't keep selling huge volumes of units after the first month, but they do start losing tens-of-thousands of subscribers.

(WoW being the ONE exception to that rule.)

MrTijger's Avatar


MrTijger
01.16.2012 , 05:00 PM | #6
Quote: Originally Posted by JediMasterShake View Post
People have been playing for one month and three days. Plus, what exactly is your point? Did you read my post?
What he means is that the game is stil selling very well and hence continueing to grow. The gaming market is not a zero sum game.

Avrose's Avatar


Avrose
01.16.2012 , 05:01 PM | #7
They posted 2 million sales the other day.
"Yes… and what are they without the Force? Take the greatest Jedi Knight, strip away the Force, and what remains?."
―Kreia

CommieKras's Avatar


CommieKras
01.16.2012 , 05:01 PM | #8
Warhammer sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

Age of Conan sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

Star Trek Online sold a lot of units opening week. It's doing great, right?

TOR will follow.
YOU WANT PRAY GOOD GAME? NO. END OF LINE. DING DONG BANNU.

Anti_Bodies's Avatar


Anti_Bodies
01.16.2012 , 05:01 PM | #9
Well a lot of people im sure skip MMO's when they are brand new for obvious reasons, and a lot of people will leave but then come back. The amount of variables that go into player base is too much. This MMO could end up with 10 million or 100,000 depending on those numberous variables.

JediMasterShake's Avatar


JediMasterShake
01.16.2012 , 05:02 PM | #10
Quote: Originally Posted by MrTijger View Post
What he means is that the game is stil selling very well and hence continueing to grow.


Ah, you know my post in the other thread touched on that, and I didn't write it out here.

TOR purchases have declined sharply after the first two weeks. I had a link to a site with numbers, but I can't find it right now... Essentially everyone bought the game Pre-order or within the first two weeks. Since then, there have hardly been any sales, comparatively.

Basically, as is predictable, everyone who was likely to play the game heard about it and made their decision one way or the other. There aren't many people left who are undecided.

Make a fast break, or that'll be the last mistake that <bleep> will make, is what you get for messin' with
Master Shake.