http://www.swtorarena.com/statistics

The over-all trend diagram says that SW:TOR's population has been dropping by ~4% every single day since the two days after release.

It also says that 86% of servers are light, and ~13.5% are standard, and ~0.5% are other.

Losing 4% of your total subscribers everyday is not something that "always happens to new MMOs."

Let's say this: 1.2 million subs right now.

From this it follows that:

(1.2 million)(0.96)^30 = 0.293857643(1.2 million) = ~352k subs after 30 days.

This trend is also quite reputable since it has been occurring for the past 2.5 weeks or so.

The number of 352 000 subscriptions is lower than Bioware's published break-even point of 500 000 subs. Is this trouble for SW:TOR's future over-all?

This is alarming news to anyone who realizes that SW:TOR's community is already dispersed in-game as is, will a population drop make implementing cross-server services such as LFG and PvP matchmaker MANDATORY things in order for the game to survive?

I believe so, because as is, people spam LFG chat for 40 min - 50 min in order to just look for a group. As the population drops, this will only get worse.

Merging servers is also a possibility, but most MMO developers avoid that like the plague since it is a subtle indication that their game is dying.

You really enjoy going out of your way to post doom and gloom on a near daily basis.

Is it too hard to move on?

The holidays are coming to a close and so is the free one month period - what exactly did you expect?

So, what you're trying to rationalize here is that people who play MMOs pack up and leave as soon as the holidays and 1-month period end?

That didn't happen with WoW. If that's happening, something is wrong.

So, what you're trying to rationalize here is that people who play MMOs pack up and leave as soon as the holidays and 1-month period end?

 

 

That didn't happen with WoW. If that's happening, something is wrong.

Of course it happens. It happened to RIFT as well. Don't be so dense.

93.425% of statistics are false.

Ones that are provided impromptu. The statistics on the site are not impromptu, and actually indicate their source (a census.)

http://www.swtorarena.com/statistics

 

The over-all trend diagram says that SW:TOR's population has been dropping by ~4% every single day since the two days after release.

 

It also says that 86% of servers are light, and ~13.5 are standard, and ~0.5% are other.

This is alarming news to anyone who realizes that SW:TOR's community is already dispersed in-game as is, will a population drop make implementing cross-server services such as LFG and PvP matchmaker MANDATORY things in order for the game to survive?

 

I believe so, because as is, people spam LFG chat for 40 min - 50 min in order to just look for a group. As the population drops, this will only get worse.

Guess Merging servers is out in your mind? Also, I assume the game cannot function without 12 million subscribers so it was a losing game to begin with.

Of course it happens. It happened to RIFT as well. Don't be so dense.

I'm not being dense; I'm trying to assess the community's mentality. Just a few weeks ago, people were saying that this game would grow and never die, and NOW people are saying it's going down the pathway of Rift (which essentially died out)?

Mmogs can have peak logins versus players as low as 2 to 1. After the first few weeks it settles into a 3-5 players per peak login range and these days even higher.

You could see a substantial decrease even if the game population is growing.

Given the rates you show there it is more likely the population is growing.

So, what you're trying to rationalize here is that people who play MMOs pack up and leave as soon as the holidays and 1-month period end?

 

 

That didn't happen with WoW. If that's happening, something is wrong.

Actually contrary to popular belief it did happen to WOW, after the first month their was a mass exodus and their where population issues, economy issues, bugs, server outages, malfunctioning mechanics, severe imbalances and so many missing features compared to Everquest the game was considered "Everquest for Children". You have a short memory.

The main difference with World of Warcraft and many other games historically speaking is that throughout its entire run the population has always constantly increased after the initial post launch subscriber drops, which is what made WoW a unique case and game. That however is over now, WOW numbers have been slipping drastically, they lost close to a million players last year, thats more than an entire MMO population for most games.

Whats happening right now is as standard as cheese on a pizza.

So, what you're trying to rationalize here is that people who play MMOs pack up and leave as soon as the holidays and 1-month period end?

 

 

That didn't happen with WoW. If that's happening, something is wrong.

I'm not rationalizing anything - this is a well known part of an MMOs release cycle. It happened to WoW and it has happened to most other MMOs.

You don't need to light your hair on fire... yet.

Actually contrary to popular belief it did happen to WOW, after the first month their was a mass exodus and their where population issues, economy issues, bugs, server outages, malfunctioning mechanics, severe imbalances and so many missing features compared to Everquest the game was considered "Everquest for Children". You have a short memory.

The main difference with World of Warcraft and many other games historically speaking is that throughout its entire run the population has always constantly increased after the initial post launch subscriber drops, which is what made WoW a unique case and game. That however is over now, WOW numbers have been slipping drastically, they lost close to a million players last year, thats more than an entire MMO population for most games.

 

Whats happening right now is as standard as cheese on a pizza.

No, I don't have a short memory; I didn't begin playing WoW until shortly before TBC.

Either way, one could argue that this happened to Warhammer as well, and it sure did not go the way of WoW, so why would you have us believe that SW:TOR will go the way of WoW?

Where does it say subscribers on that page?

I see useage levels dropped. My game time dropped from hours per day, to 40 mins at most.

Do you understand the difference between usage and subsciption?

Here's a question that you can't avoid.

Do you have access to the confidential finanical information that bioware has? If so, i want to know how.

This does not make much sense, as I often see servers have heavy or very heavy population.

You do realize that Bioware could simply lower the player quota for showing "heavy" populations on the server list to grant the illusion that the game is thriving?

No, I don't have a short memory; I didn't begin playing WoW until shortly before TBC.

 

Either way, one could argue that this happened to Warhammer as well, and it sure did not go the way of WoW, so why would you have us believe that SW:TOR will go the way of WoW?

'Cuase initial subscriber drop-off has almost nothing to do with whether a game is good or not?

If I am to understand these tables it appears you are suggesting that a game that soild 1.5 million copies only 1/3 of them are in game?

I would hazard to guess these tables are based on active and online at the time of polling. Which would actually be fairly impressive. It has nothing to do with subscriptions but people online. And as pointed up Vaca is coming to an end so people has less time to be online.

I myself have gone from 8-10 hours a day to 2-3 because my vaca from work is over and as such have less free time. Does not be I or others are unsubbing.

You do realize that Bioware could simply lower the player quota for showing "heavy" populations on the server list to grant the illusion that the game is thriving?

Oh please. Just go away. I can't wait for your sub to expire.

i CANNOT wait

This does not make much sense, as I often see servers have heavy or very heavy population.

That status is for right now, ie Oh-dark-thirty for the US. Yeah, I wonder why they're all light.

'Cuase initial subscriber drop-off has almost nothing to do with whether a game is good or not?

Losing 4% of your total subscribers everyday is not something that "always happens."

Let's say this: 1.2 million subs right now.

From this it follows that:

(1.2 million)(0.96)^30 = 0.293857643(1.2 million) = ~352k subs after 30 days.