Noroimuja Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) http://www.vgchartz.com/charts/preorders.php This is just USA charts Week ending------------ total Preorders: 10th december----------939,358 03rd december----------916,490 26th november----------900,756 12th november----------753,132 5th november------------698,589 29th october-------------654,810 22nd october------------606,078 15th october-------------548,505 8th october--------------518,222 24th september---------426,136 17th september---------402,915 10th september---------386,137 20th august--------------301,650 13th august--------------264,924 6th august---------------203,931 By these stats, July was day one, August - september is day two and day three is october, november and decemeber pre-orders before the 10th. July was day one *Confirmed* August - september is day two *Confirmed* (people who preordered later september are getting invites) 30th july-----------------119,260 Statistically, there were more pre-orders (203,931 approx) between 21st - 6th august (8 days!) than there was over any other month. Also assuming that Europe will almost have had more or the same number of preorders over the 9 july days, (100,000+ again) we can assume that less than >300,000 invites were sent out on day one (hence why some people claim they pre-ordered in july, but still did not receive an email. November showed a incredible increase of pre-orders. Within logical reasoning, we can believe that Bioware have used the past 17 hours since the last wave of invites to assess the success and failure of servers. This is in fact a stress test, and Trial and Error is a common method of stress testing. TL : DR We should expect more than 5 waves today, on the 14th of December including around 200,000 additional players that pre-ordered between July and september. Comfort numbers: imagining that a state of the art server of today can hold 4,000 players in total. 4,000 X 100 (number of servers) = 400,000 players. 2,000,000 (total number of pre-orders) / 400,000 = 5 5 days required of waves, by the 17th, everyone who pre-ordered can play (ESTIMATE) EDIT: Important information provided by fellow SWTOR players! Here's my 5 day model which leaves Dec 18 for all-in (SR said everyone would get 1 full day) and Dec 19 as down day before launch: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11410166/swtordata%20%285%20day%20model%29.pdf I ran similiar numbers with a few difference scenarios on the 12th. http://www.forcesensitivedruid.com/?p=54 If anyone is interested. I haven't updated with what we know of yesteday though, so some adjustments would need to be made EDIT2: Any important Rockjaw, the Senior Community Manager for Star Wars™: The Old Republic™ quotes starting 14th december! @Rockjaw Stephen Reid I will say - as I mentioned yesterday - that today the 'timeline' of people who get in will be much, much longer. Beyond July... @Rockjaw Stephen Reid Remember when I said we had a huge spike in pre-orders in the first few days? I wasn't lying. http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=16391 Edited December 14, 2011 by Noroimuja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Payvay Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think you've got way to much time on your hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JediFirefly Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I find your logic inescapable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesleDarksyde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 By these stats, July was day one, August - september is day two and day three is october, november and decemeber pre-orders before the 10th. Exactly my thoughts... By Friday/Saturday the roll out will be complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morto Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 heh this is why Bioware communication sucks, people start to theorize instead of them telling us whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhfractai Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Only all of July didn't get in on day one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vaestmannaeyjar Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Statistically, servers were empty yesterday. 300K invites seem very far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesleDarksyde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 heh this is why Bioware communication sucks, people start to theorize instead of them telling us whats going on. Weirdly, your entire world is made up of theory... Every single manmade thing around you... Pretty nifty, huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notashot Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 VGA chartz doesn't include digital download BTW. Tried extrapolating that same data yesterday but there are too many places it doesn't catch and it's basically a guess-timate. For all we know, 300-400k people could have been allowed in yesterday, maybe more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endyoursearch Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The only thing to me is that European servers seem to be less full than american servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinxsters Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well i hope your are right cause that means i get to play when i get home from work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noroimuja Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think you've got way to much time on your hand. my day off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panacuba Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I find your lack of evidence disturbing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solmanian Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Alot of July aren't in yet. Last I saw 26/7 was in. I'm 28/7 hoping for Today or tommorow. Since the July preorders outnumber all the rest combined, making schedules for August-December is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Borell Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nice work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noroimuja Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 I find your lack of evidence disturbing! did you not see the legit link at the beginning of my post? troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flowerslayer Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFZrzg62Zj0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tersidre Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 july 29th here i didnt get in yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludicrouz Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFZrzg62Zj0 I knew that was the video before I clicked your link, and to answer it: I care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xontier Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm surprised there isn't more flaming the OP from people who aren't in yet. Good work and it does give you some idea of when you can expect to get in. Even though I preordered Sep 4 I'm still not expecting to get in until tomorrow at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramaos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The only thing to me is that European servers seem to be less full than american servers. Trust me I'd be on there if I had an invite lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Here's my 5 day model which leaves Dec 18 for all-in (SR said everyone would get 1 full day) and Dec 19 as down day before launch: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11410166/swtordata%20%285%20day%20model%29.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeosz Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm surprised there isn't more flaming the OP from people who aren't in yet.. I mean why would we flame him? He's giving us the information we've been craving from BioWare in a nice concise way. The lack of nerd rage here just goes to show that with minimal effort BioWare could make everything run a lot smoother. Tell us whats going on, the whole shroud of mystery is just silly and irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noroimuja Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Here's my 5 day model which leaves Dec 18 for all-in (SR said everyone would get 1 full day) and Dec 19 as down day before launch: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11410166/swtordata%20%285%20day%20model%29.pdf Thank you for this, I will add it to the main post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xontier Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I mean why would we flame him? He's giving us the information we've been craving from BioWare in a nice concise way. The lack of nerd rage here just goes to show that with minimal effort BioWare could make everything run a lot smoother. Tell us whats going on, the whole shroud of mystery is just silly and irritating. lol because that seems to be the only thing happening on these forums right now. But the problem is, if BioWare gave us a schedule like that and didn't keep to it EXACTLY then people would freak out even more than they are now. Yes, the silence sucks, but it's needed in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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