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Savant Sash


Girick

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Is there a bug trying to reverse engineer the savant sash? It should be a 20% chance. I've tried at least 15 times and no new schematic. I haven't done the math yet, but I must be extremely unlucky or there is a bug.
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You're just unlucky. I got it on the first, and that is the first time I got it on the first go it usually take me more goes.

 

The 20% is not not cumulative so it does not mean you have a higher chance the more you do. It is per RE, so each time you RE something you have a 20% chance of it proccing, however you also have an 80% chance of it not doing so.

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Thanks for confirming that it can be found.

 

The probablitiy does increase though. Each time you do it the probability is 20%, but if you look at a group of attempts your probability goes up. For instance, whats the probability of getting at least one head when you flip a coin two times? Even though you have a 50% chance each time you flip, your sample set for two flips is (TT, TH, HT, HH). So to get at least one head you have a 3/4 or 75% chance. Notice that means there is a 25% chance you won't get a heads which can be gotten from doing 1/2*1/2 (the probability of each individual event).

 

My thoughts on the 20% in this game are that it's easier to look at what the chances are of not getting a schematic, much like in the scenerio above what are the chances of not getting a heads, which would be an 80% chance. Thus for ten tries would be a .8^10 percent chance of not getting a schematic which is about 10%. After 15 tries that drops to about a 3.5% chance you would not get a schemetic meaning there is a 96.5% chance you would have the schematic.

 

That's really all just a lot of information to prove that I am just that unlucky.

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  • 3 months later...
That's really all just a lot of information to prove that I am just that unlucky.

 

Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

 

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

 

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.

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That's really all just a lot of information to prove that I am just that unlucky.

 

Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

 

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

 

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.

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Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

 

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

 

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.

 

Or you could look at it this way...

The chance of success on any one attempt is 20%. The chance of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (80%^7). So if you manage to get a success within seven tries, consider yourself lucky because you beat the odds. One success in eight tries is even money and anything beyond that...you're unlucky, don't play the lotto

that day.

 

That being said, you MUST look at it from a large scale POV. Take all the REs you have ever attempted and do the math. I will bet the percentages will work out to 20% (within an appropriate margin or error). Now take ALL the REs that EVERY player has EVER done in the last year and I guarantee the percentages work out.

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Or you could look at it this way...

The chance of success on any one attempt is 20%. The chance of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (80%^7). So if you manage to get a success within seven tries, consider yourself lucky because you beat the odds. One success in eight tries is even money and anything beyond that...you're unlucky, don't play the lotto

that day.

 

I follow your math, but not your conclusions. How is one success in eight, "even money"? The odds of one or more success in eight trials is 1 - (0.8^8) = 83.22%. Those odds are much more than even money, are they not? i.e. I wouldn't bet money against having at least one success in eight trials. In the long term, you would lose all your money. :)

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I'm not entirely convinced something hasn't been broken recently when it comes to REing.

 

I'm seeing much, much more effort being required to proc a schematic...consistently...than I've ever seen before.

 

You really have to take a fair amount of data to prove that. Complaints about random number generators seem to dog every MMO I've played, but whenever someone actually sits down to take the required data they find that the law of large numbers does eventually prove the RNG is working.

 

I had one especially bad streak of luck recently. Something like 30 or more failures before finally getting the schematic. Then shortly afterward... three schematics in a row.

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I follow your math, but not your conclusions. How is one success in eight, "even money"? The odds of one or more success in eight trials is 1 - (0.8^8) = 83.22%. Those odds are much more than even money, are they not? i.e. I wouldn't bet money against having at least one success in eight trials. In the long term, you would lose all your money. :)

 

By your math, "even money" would be the odds of one success in three attempts (1-(.8^3)=51.2%

 

the term "even money" is used when the chances of one event happening is roughly equal to that of another event.

 

By my math...

the odds of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (0.8^7=.2097)

and the odds of any one attempt being a success is 20%.

 

The chance of either event happening is roughly equal, hence "even money"

 

So, getting one success is eight attempts is roughly a 50/50 proposition.

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By your math, "even money" would be the odds of one success in three attempts (1-(.8^3)=51.2%

 

the term "even money" is used when the chances of one event happening is roughly equal to that of another event.

 

Not exactly. When we're not talking about actual amounts of money, "even money" simply means that the chance of an event happening is equal to the chance of it NOT happening. i.e. 50/50. A bet where you're as likely to win as to lose. So you can't compare just any two events like the chance of success of one trial vs the chance of seven failures. That's apples and oranges. It has to be the two possible outcomes of the given proposition. If I have eight items to RE and I am wondering, ahead of time, what the odds are that I will get the schematic before I run out of items to RE vs. the odds of getting NO schematic then you can calculate that as:

 

The chance of succeeding on the first try, plus...

The chance of failing on the first try and succeeding on the second, plus...

The chance of failing on the first two tries and succeeding on the third, plus... etc, etc.

 

Or you could do it the easy way and take the chance of NO successes in all eight tries and subtract it from 100%. Which is what I did in my last post. The odds are substantially better than 50/50 that you will see that schematic. You are not beating the odds if you get the schematic even though we've all had those bad luck streaks that make us think success is a lot less likely than it really is. We forget the times that it DID only take 1 or 2 or 3 tries and we remember the times we failed 10 or 20 or more times.

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Not exactly. When we're not talking about actual amounts of money, "even money" simply means that the chance of an event happening is equal to the chance of it NOT happening. i.e. 50/50. A bet where you're as likely to win as to lose. So you can't compare just any two events like the chance of success of one trial vs the chance of seven failures. That's apples and oranges. It has to be the two possible outcomes of the given proposition. If I have eight items to RE and I am wondering, ahead of time, what the odds are that I will get the schematic before I run out of items to RE vs. the odds of getting NO schematic then you can calculate that as:

 

The chance of succeeding on the first try, plus...

The chance of failing on the first try and succeeding on the second, plus...

The chance of failing on the first two tries and succeeding on the third, plus... etc, etc.

 

Or you could do it the easy way and take the chance of NO successes in all eight tries and subtract it from 100%. Which is what I did in my last post. The odds are substantially better than 50/50 that you will see that schematic. You are not beating the odds if you get the schematic even though we've all had those bad luck streaks that make us think success is a lot less likely than it really is. We forget the times that it DID only take 1 or 2 or 3 tries and we remember the times we failed 10 or 20 or more times.

 

Not saying you are wrong but, these types of debates always remind me of a verse in the Don Henley song Garden of Allah

 

"Today I made an appearance downtown

I am an expert witness, because I say I am

And I said, 'Gentleman....and I use that word loosely....

I will testify for you

I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar

Because there are no facts, there is no truth

Just a data to be manipulated

I can get any result you like

What's it worth to ya?

Because there is no wrong, there is no right

And I sleep very well at night

No shame, no solution

No remorse, no retribution

Just people selling T-shirts

Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus

And winning, winning, winning'"

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Not saying you are wrong but, these types of debates always remind me of a verse in the Don Henley song Garden of Allah

 

I prefer Twain. ""Figures often beguile me," :)

 

My point wasn't really to argue the meaning of the phrase "even money" but just to point out that one success in eight is much better than 50/50 odds. Subscribers can normally expect an average of one success in five over the long run on items with a 20% chance to RE. But they need to remember also that this isn't a guarantee of one in EVERY five tries and that the system isn't broken if they see longer failure streaks than five.

 

Though even I admit to grumbling about it when I hit 30 fails in a row.

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From another thread on same basic topic...

 

The last time I was worried about the RE percentage, I started keeping track in a spreadsheet.

 

691 greens RE'ed- 132 successful = 19.1% (tooltip says 20% chance)

316 blues RE'ed - 35 successful = 11% (tooltip says 10% chance)

 

Statistically, this is a pretty small sample size, but it was good enough for me. I've gone 45 attempts without a successful RE. I've also done 3 in a row successfully.

 

Toolip is correct.

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well as it stands atm i think sinth weveing is stuffed up atm cause ive crafted perple for my house mate and he cant even were them but our comps can use them ????

 

This is a bug for all crafted purples right now that may or may not hit you. I haven't heard of an ETA to fix it yet either.

 

Edit: Nevermind... they just fixed it last night. :)

Edited by Zem_
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