C2-N2 has the Engineering sensor and used to crit regularly on cybertech crafting.

He hasn't critted in 1-2 weeks, past the point of bad luck on RNG. Has anyone else noticed this? Any fix?

When I select him for crafting, the +5 cybertech crit text is there in the crafting window. It just stopped critting.

...

 

He hasn't critted in 1-2 weeks, past the point of bad luck on RNG. Has anyone else noticed this? ....

How many thousands of crafts have you done with him? That is the number that is needed to reasonably assume something other than RNG is at work.

base chance of critting on Yellow, Green, and Gray Difficulty: 15%

maxed affection : +5% crit bonus

Eng droid sensor: +5% crit bonus on cybertech crafting

Crit bonus : 25%

Chance of not critting : 75%

Chance of not critting 50 times in a row: (0.75)^50 = 5.6e-7 or 0.00000056%

A few weeks ago my C2-N2 with the Eng droid sensor used to crit every 3-4-5 craftings. Now he hasn't critted at all for a long time. I was curious to see if others observed the same thing and if they found a fix for it.

I critted 3 times yesterday on 4 crafts with my imperial droid.

Suppose it shouldnt matter if its reb or imp

I would look at your math again. You only have a 16.5% chance of critting with the bonuses. You don’t add the percent crit chances you have to multiply the chances. So to find out what your overall percent bonus would be do this 15(1.05)(1.05) = 16.5375% chance to crit.

You could then take that (.165375%) ^ 50 = 8.3848x10^-40 so out of 50 chances you have 1 in 1.19263x10^39 chance to crit. (8.3848x10^-40)^-1 = 1.19263x10^39 so that is your chances to do it 50 times.

So every time you craft an item, you have a 83.4625% chance not to crit. Which is approximately a 1 in 11119.76 chance out of 50 tries not to crit; odds are better that you want crit.

Sometimes you will crit one after another other times you want crit at all. I have run into that with my crafters.

Edit: After reading the link provided, I see the devs are using a different method of combining the crit chances. Which makes these calculations not match up to their numbers.

I would look at your math again. You only have a 16.5% chance of critting with the bonuses. You don’t add the percent crit chances you have to multiply the chances. So to find out what your overall percent bonus would be do this 15(1.05)(1.05) = 16.5375% chance to crit.

Yes I did look at my math again, and it is correct.

I use information from a SWTOR Systems Designer:

http://www.swtor.com/blog/community-qa-april-27th-2012

I read what they have it your calculations are not correct.

Using the (0.75)^50 = 5.66322 x 10^-7 or 1 in 1,765,781 chance to fail

Your success would be (.25)^50 or 1 in 1.27 x 10^30 chance at success or let me do it this way. You have a 1 in 1,270,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 given 50 tries to crit.

So that is your chances of critting 50 times in a row.

The odds are stacked against you that you will fail more than you will succeed.

I was using what you stated in your original post and they are using a different way of combining probability then what would normally be done in statistics.

I read what they have it your calculations are not correct.

My calculation of 25% crit bonus was correct. Yours (16.5375%) was incorrect.

Using the (0.75)^50 = 5.66322 x 10^-7 or 1 in 1,765,781 chance to fail

That is correct. 0.000056% probably of never critting in 50 tries

So you are saying it's extremely unlikely that someone will never crit in 50 tries. Which is the point of my OP. Thanks for the confirmation.

Your success would be (.25)^50 or 1 in 1.27 x 10^30 chance at success or let me do it this way. You have a 1 in 1,270,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 given 50 tries to crit.

No, that number is the chance to never crit in 50 tries. Irrelevant to the thread discussion. I'm not asking about critting 50 times in a row. Not sure where you get that impression.

Probably of never critting in 50 tries = 0.000056%

Probably of not [never critting in 50 tries] = ( 1-5.6e-7)= 99.9999944%

In other words, the probability of critting at least one in 50 tries is extremely high

The probability of never critting in 50 tries is extermely low

The odds are stacked against you that you will fail more than you will succeed.

Well... yes, as has been stated:

25% of critting (correct bonus calculation)

75% chance of not critting

And you confirm that 75% is greater than 25%? This is obvious and does not need confirmation, and is not the topic.

The topic is not critting at all.

My calculation of 25% crit bonus was correct. Yours (16.5375%) was incorrect.

 

I stated that the method you were using was correct following what the devs posted but not how normal statistics are calculated. Duh

 

Your calculations that were not correct was your raising .75 to the 50 power you had the wrong value and I see you have since went back and changed it to what I have posted.

 

That is correct. 0.000056% probably of never critting in 50 tries

So you are saying it's extremely unlikely that someone will never crit in 50 tries. Which is the point of my OP. Thanks for the confirmation.

 

So if you are saying it cant be done why are you complaining about the crits not going off? You have a percent every time you craft for it to crit but as you craft it does not become 100 percent.

 

No, that number is the chance to never crit in 50 tries. Irrelevant to the thread discussion. I'm not asking about critting 50 times in a row. Not sure where you get that impression.

Probably of never critting in 50 tries = 0.000056%

Probably of not [never critting in 50 tries] = ( 1-5.6e-7)= 99.9999944%

In other words, the probability of critting at least one in 50 tries is extremely high

The probability of never critting in 50 tries is extermely low

 

How is 50 times irrelevant to the thread it is your thread and you used it so it is very relevant to the thread. i am using your numbers.

 

 

Well... yes, as has been stated:

25% of critting (correct bonus calculation)

75% chance of not critting

And you confirm that 75% is greater than 25%? This is obvious and does not need confirmation, and is not the topic.

The topic is not critting at all.

How can the thread not be about criting when the title of the thread is "C2-N2 stopped critting (engineering sensor - cybertech) Your entire post is about C2-N2 not critting.

You just have not been lucky is all that is the luck of the draw. Sometimes life is not fair deal with it and move on complaining about it on the forums isn't going to change things.

I wasn't complaining, I was asking if others have observed C2-N2 not critting at all recently, with the Engineering droid sensor.

Like every game, this game has bugs and when you observe something that feels like a bug, it is normal to discuss it on forums to see if others have experienced it, and if someone has found a fix.

It is extremely improbable to not crit 50 times in a row, and amidst your off-track comments you keep confirming what I am saying.

Thank you.

I wasn't complaining, I was asking if others have observed C2-N2 not critting at all recently, with the Engineering droid sensor.

It is improbable to not crit 50 times in a row.

You keep confirming what I am saying, thank you.

It is not improbable for you not to crit 50 times it is very possible this is a bell curve. As long as you fall under the curve, then nothing went wrong.

It is not improbable for you not to crit 50 times

It is extremely improbable to not crit 50 times in a row (to have zero crits after 50 attempts), you even calculated the odds yourself, 5.6e-7.

 

It is extremely improbable to not crit 50 times in a row (to have zero crits after 50 attempts), you even calculated the odds yourself, 5.6e-7.

Improbable is to have you crit 2 times on a mission or to have you crit 1.5 times on a mission since those involve 200% chance to crit or 150% chance to crit. . You have from 0% to 100% chance to crit during crafting. You was unlucky and crit 0% of the time. That is still under the bell curve so it is probable for you not to crit just like it is probably for you to have crit 100% of the time.

All out comes from 0% to 100% are probable under the bell curve.

Maybe your wording is at issue. Call it rare, calling it rare makes it probably but not as likely to have happen.

Improbably is saying it not likely to happen but that isn't true in this case it is likely to happen. That is why critting more than once on a mission is improbably since it isn't likely to happen no matter how many times you craft.

5.6e-7 is extremely improbable

Improbable is to have you crit 2 times on a mission or to have you crit

Critting 2 times on a mission is impossible. You can only crit once per mission.

5.6e-7 is extremely improbable

5.6e-7 is still a possibility therefore by the definitions of the word it is probable and cant be improbable.

That's fine. When you say 5.6e-7 you confirm.

Thanks

If you craft 50 times, it is improbable, not likely, that you will have zero crits.

5.6e-7 is extremely improbable

 

 

 

Critting 2 times on a mission is impossible. You can only crit once per mission.

Yes now you get it that is why critting two times on a mission is improbable but critting 0 times is probable.

Thanks for agreeing with me finally you see.

That's fine. When you say 5.6e-7 you confirm.

Thanks

 

If you craft 50 times, it is improbable, not likely, that you will have zero crits.

Let me change that for you.

"If you craft 50 times, it is [still possible],[but rare], that you will have zero crits.

Yes now you get it that is why critting two times on a mission is improbably but critting 0 times is probable..

Critting two times on a mission is impossible in this game, you can only crit once per mission.

Game mechanics.

Critting 0 (or not critting) on one mission is probable. I've already stated that there is a 75% chance of not critting.

Thanks for confirming again.

Crafting fifty times and obtaining zero crits is a probability of 5.6e-7, like you said.

Thanks for confirming again.

Critting two times on a mission is impossible in this game, you can only crit once per mission.

Game mechanics.

 

Critting 0 (or not critting) on one mission is probable. I've already stated that there is a 75% chance of not critting.

Thanks for confirming again.

 

Crafting fifty times and obtaining zero crits is a probability of 5.6e-7, like you said.

Thanks for confirming again.

I just confirmed that it is not an improbability like you said but a probability like I said an you just reaffirmed my statement..

Yep, you confirmed (5.6e-7) and you learned how the crit bonus calculation works, and that you can't craft twice on the same mission.

All is good.

Yep, you confirmed (5.6e-7) and you learned how the crit bonus calculation works, and that you can't craft twice on the same mission.

All is good.

No I pointed out to you that it is improbable to crit two times on a mission but probable to crit 0 times out of 50 tries. Thus giving you a proper illustration of the correct usage of the words you were using incorrectly. You came around.

I never back tracked on my use of that wording but you came around to the correct usage of the true meaning of the words. You did great.

You are correct after I read the link you gave I saw how the devs are combining probabilities which is not how probabilities are normally combined.

No I pointed out to you that it is improbable to crit two times on a mission

It is impossible to crit two times on a mission. One crit per mission max.

It is impossible to crit two times on a mission. One crit per mission max.

So thus it is improbable like I said. See a correct use of the word improbable. Improbable and impossible go hand in hand.

Sure

Merriam-Webster does not list "impossible" as a synonym for "improbable"

Improbable: unlikely to be true or to occur

Impossible: incapable of being or of occurring

Anyway, you said the probability of having zero crit in fifty attemps is 5.6e-7.

You got it. The number is clear and has no ambiguity, and confirms what I have observed.

You are not contributing to the thread and I have added you to my ignore list. I will therefore not see any additional responses you make.