It seems to work in odd ways for me. Been trying to R/E a bunch of stuff with my trooper lately with armormech. It seems that I nearly always get a new schematic within 2-3 tries with gloves, belt or bracers or augments, but if I try to R/E chest or leg pieces, it's either taking forever or I never get them. Honestly with the gloves and belts I'm getting the purple schems unlocked literally within 2-3 R/Es, but have yet to unlock a purple piece of armor, either chest or leggings.

The biggest problem is player mentality - we always remember the bad streak runs and forget when we got three in a row. The good and the bad balance out over a LONG period of time AND across ALL players who RE; you may be in the middle of a bad streak but the player righht next to you may have gotten two schems in a row.

 

 

Not me I hardly ever complain about Res I do , and most I do I get the schematic some times one try ,sometimes 15 ether way if I want that Schematic I don't give up till I get it .. isn't that the thrill of it all seeing those big green letters ...

I will say thu latly I don't get as many crtis but its not a complaint because when I do I make close to 10 mil off the crits so not a complaint , l love how the trades work in this game and am a little worried at how bad the nerfs are gonna be in rhe expac , that worries me more then no REed Schematics ...

lol you guys obviously never did skillups in Everquest crafting. 100+ combines for 1 skill up was pretty common. oh and you had to click drag all of your materials into the craft box. some of the recipes had 9 items. ugh.

 

yeah REing sucks....but it could be much, much worse.

 

 

I do and did , if I remember right one time a player got pissed at me excuse the word I can't think of better word to explain , because he gave me the mats for one of high end crafts in EQ1 and it failed didn't give me a thing or him and he even reported me, I had just told him it may fail he may lose it all . ...

Edited January 24, 2013 by tanktest

Khevar, one word. Probability

Khevar, one word. Probability

Have you read the article I linked? What are your thoughts on it?

[quote name='DarthScruffy']Depending on how they set up their RNG it may not be random.[/QUOTE] This. In fact, it indeed is not "purely" random, it is pseudo-random, because the RNG must be based on something - it must have a "seed". The seed in Neverwinter Nights, another Bioware game, was for example based on the area you were in (among other things), and it did reset each time you changed an area. Also, once the seed was set, the "random" sequence of numbers was always the same, meaning that if with seed A you got rolls like 45, 89, 76, 3, 15 etc., you would get exactly the same rolls if you would manage to get seed A again. The consequence of this was that a) some areas were more "likely" to produce a successful roll, and b) changing an area after a series of unsuccessful rolls was a bad idea since the RNG had to start "from the scratch", while in the original area you would be approaching the "good numbers". I don't know what kind of RNG is used in SWTOR, but from my observations, the point b) seems to hold true here, too - when I fail RE'ing something five times in a row, I try, if possible, to make the next five attempts in the same area - so far it has paid off. Though, of course, it may also be just a "Las Vegas casino manual". Edited January 24, 2013 by Danylia

This. In fact, it indeed is not "purely" random, it is pseudo-random, because the RNG must be based on something - it must have a "seed".

 

The seed in Neverwinter Nights, another Bioware game, was for example based on the area you were in (among other things), and it did reset each time you changed an area. Also, once the seed was set, the "random" sequence of numbers was always the same, meaning that if with seed A you got rolls like 45, 89, 76, 3, 15 etc., you would get exactly the same rolls if you would manage to get seed A again.

 

The consequence of this was that a) some areas were more "likely" to produce a successful roll, and b) changing an area after a series of unsuccessful rolls was a bad idea since the RNG had to start "from the scratch", while in the original area you would be approaching the "good numbers". I don't know what kind of RNG is used in SWTOR, but from my observations, the point b) seems to hold true here, too - when I fail RE'ing something five times in a row, I try, if possible, to make the next five attempts in the same area - so far it has paid off.

 

Though, of course, it may also be just a "Las Vegas casino manual".

 

If the seed is based on a "normal clock" certain times of days will produce the same result. But there are better ways you can even use a clock a seed and you could do some real advanced logic stuff if you really wanted to get closer to random.

We have computers that win at Jeopardy! and calculate pi to ten trillion digits. Do you honestly think no one has figured out how to approximate a die roll that is sufficiently random for video game crafting?

 

This is one of those situations where a little bit of knowledge does more harm than good. Unless you are a cryptographer or a mathematician, computer randomization is more than sufficient for your needs.

The seed in Neverwinter Nights, another Bioware game, was for example based on the area you were in (among other things), and it did reset each time you changed an area. Also, once the seed was set, the "random" sequence of numbers was always the same, meaning that if with seed A you got rolls like 45, 89, 76, 3, 15 etc., you would get exactly the same rolls if you would manage to get seed A again.

 

I never played Neverwinter Nights, but single-player games are sometimes designed in ways that appear (and may, in fact, be) not entirely random in order to discourage players from cheating by saving the game and reloading if they don't get the results they want. This is most noticeable in turn-based games like XCOM or Civilization; if you reload a saved game and do the same things you did first time, you will get the same combat results. You can reload your saved game a hundred times, but if you have the same unit move the same way and attack the same enemy unit, the results will be the same each time. It may be that Neverwinter Nights was designed as it was not because of a limitation of computer randomization, but to discourage cheating.

Edited January 25, 2013 by Kaskali

...

 

I never played Neverwinter Nights, but single-player games are sometimes designed in ways that appear (and may, in fact, be) not entirely random in order to discourage players from cheating by saving the game and reloading if they don't get the results they want. This is most noticeable in turn-based games like XCOM or Civilization; if you reload a saved game and do the same things you did first time, you will get the same combat results. You can reload your saved game a hundred times, but if you have the same unit move the same way and attack the same enemy unit, the results will be the same each time. It may be that Neverwinter Nights was designed as it was not because of a limitation of computer randomization, but to discourage cheating.

This is an excellent point.

 

When playing XCOM I noticed that exact same behavior. It's almost as if each move or action has a value assigned to it, is somehow combined with the previous RNG result, and is then used as a new seed.

 

I agree that single player games are likely to have a completely different philosophy about RNG than an MMO.

It's true that the Firaxis games (latest Civ and XCOM) deliberately store the seed on save, to prevent people 'reloadcheating'. Developers confirmed that it was deliberate. Still easily defeatable if you have a few other characters with moves left though.

Almost a year ago I did some analysis on this. It turned out that for a 20% schematic the 90th percentile of trials is at 10.5 rolls, and the 98th is around 20. In other words, 1 out of 10 times it will take you more than 10 rolls to succeed, and about 1 in 50 times (actually, it was 1 in 45), it will take you 20 or more.

 

If you roll the dice a million times, you will almost always find at least one streak of > 50 failures, and it's about 50/50 that you'll find one taking over 60.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Zhiroc

As for those of you saying its a re-roll each time. I understand that, but Im wondering how many of you might not understand odds and statistics. The way it works is like this: Statistically I have a one in 5 chance of hitting a schematic. That means that the more times I attempt and fail, the greater my odds are that I will hit on the next attempt...statistically speaking of course. When you dont hit after 30 or 40 attempts, either the mechanic is broken or you are deep nito a statistical anomally. .

 

Sigh.

 

Your odds don't change. Even if we were talking about a statistically significant sample size in the millions. It's 1/5 each time. Your odds each time are 1/5. Over the course of a statistically significant sample size of rolls, you don't increase your odds at any time.. No, you don't. Not statistically speaking. Rather, over the course of a statistically significant sample size of rolls, you have enough indepedent rolls for the actual chance to show through and eliminate and / or reduce the effect of outliers.

 

That is completely different from saying "I've failed 20 times, that means I have a better chance now than I did the first time."

Edited January 28, 2013 by ebado

Every time I read arguments over statistics and odds I am reminded of the Don Henley song Garden of Allah

 

"Today I made an appearance downtown

I am an expert witness, because I say I am

And I said, 'Gentleman....and I use that word loosely....

I will testify for you

I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar

Because there are no facts, there is no truth

Just a data to be manipulated

I can get any result you like

What's it worth to ya?..."

By the way, you generally don't want to "re-seed" your RNG from something that you "think" is random, like the time of day. If you're using a good RNG (and there are plenty in various runtime libraries), nowadays they generally are designed on sound statistical principles, and provide a uniform pseudo-random distribution. If you think you "know better" and try to throw what you think is more randomness into it, you are probably making it worse, not better.

 

And to reiterate what I said a few posts back, if you roll the dice a million times, you will almost always find a string of 50 or more failures in a row. So... think about it. Let's say there are 100,000 players RE'ing each day. If they each roll about 10 times, that's a million. So roughly speaking, that means EVERY DAY, someone in SWTOR fails on 50 tries to succeed on a RE'ed item.

 

Yes, the odds of failing 50 times in a row is miniscule. You'd never bet on it... but when you have a sample size the size of SWTOR, it happens---REGULARLY.

I actually find RE in Swtor easier than I did when RE was first introduced in SWG. That was a headache there was no ratio. You could get something all the way up to one point where you wanted it and the next time you re the item hoping to get it to max it would go all the way back down.

 

It was until they made re tools (which were good for one use only) that RE got easier but then you had to have:

 

the food, drink, a buff from an entertainer and an entire day to set there and get them to where you wanted them.

I find that REing in this game is pointless any way unless you are willing to sit around all day and send companions to find the mats for you. Other wize not only will you level faster than you can get the resourses for crafting and REing them up to purple you might not even have enough of the purple mats to make the final scamatic. Then once you hit 50 your crafting prof is usless to that toon you can make stuff for your other toons or sell them for low lv toons that are wanting to lv but lets face it there are other things in the game that make money faster then spending all the time and energy sending companions out to find mats that can take 30 to 50mins a pop and you can not even do them while off line cuz there is no que system for geting mats. lv 1-20 getting a scamatic should be 50% Lv 20-40 Should be 35% lv 40-50 the 20% and all rich and bountifull missions should guarentee purple returns.

I find that REing in this game is pointless any way unless you are willing to sit around all day and send companions to find the mats for you. Other wize not only will you level faster than you can get the resourses for crafting and REing them up to purple you might not even have enough of the purple mats to make the final scamatic. Then once you hit 50 your crafting prof is usless to that toon you can make stuff for your other toons or sell them for low lv toons that are wanting to lv but lets face it there are other things in the game that make money faster then spending all the time and energy sending companions out to find mats that can take 30 to 50mins a pop and you can not even do them while off line cuz there is no que system for geting mats. lv 1-20 getting a scamatic should be 50% Lv 20-40 Should be 35% lv 40-50 the 20% and all rich and bountifull missions should guarentee purple returns.

 

I'm sorry but your post doesn't make any sense.

At level 50 if you are only semi-competent you can get filthy rich by any crafting profession. If you don't know how, it's not the systems fault.