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Napkin math + my opinion


Alzdaman's Avatar


Alzdaman
12.13.2011 , 04:25 PM | #11
Quote: Originally Posted by Xenospheric View Post
So I'm bored sitting at work listening to all the whiners about how slow this is and how BioWare is horrible, blah blah, so I decided to do some rough math just to see approximately how many people there will be playing now.

So I'm taking some liberal approximations, but based on what I know about MMO's and also servers themselves, I'm assuming that each server that is coming up as "full" in the server list is hosting 2,000 people (lets say 1000 light side 1000 dark side). From my count, there are 73 "full" servers which would roughly mean that there are at least 146,000 playing on those servers alone. This is not counting the "medium", "high" servers.

Lets say you balloon the amount of people per full server to 5,000. That makes 365,000 users on all at once, first day. I work as a System Administrator for a living and you guys need to understand that controlling and maintaining a multitude of clusters for that many users is astronomical. Please realize that computers are not just magic and pixie dust and they are very temperamental if everything is not perfect. You may think that just because a company has done it before means there won't be problems, but trust me, you could do the same thing 100 times and still have weird issues pop up from time to time.


They're doing this right.

Cut them some slack.
Don't ruin the computer magic, you're just like those people that swear movies aren't magic.
Maddog Mcclure

Korghal's Avatar


Korghal
12.13.2011 , 04:28 PM | #12
Cudos to OP.

ZeroRange's Avatar


ZeroRange
12.13.2011 , 04:28 PM | #13
I would be very surprised if BW didn't have another 10 servers or so which they're getting ready to deploy. I doubt they've played all their cards this early on.
Didn't they add a couple of servers during one of the beta weekends?

Xenospheric's Avatar


Xenospheric
12.13.2011 , 04:29 PM | #14
Quote: Originally Posted by azmundai View Post
146,000 on the first day you say?

1,460,000 (estimate number of preorders)

== 10 days. See you after launch is what you are saying?
The numbers that I was using are very conservative, most newer clusters can handle a lot more users than that, but my scope of knowledge as it pertains to BioWare's infrastructure is limited, so I chose to err on that side.

BioWare has also announced that this is the smaller of the waves.

"We're actually planning to invite more tomorrow than today, and invite the same number again on Thursday - at which point we'll be into the original 'five days of Early Game Access'."

Source: http://www.swtor.com/community/showp...postcount=6438

PlayTank's Avatar


PlayTank
12.13.2011 , 04:33 PM | #15
so how many people can an actual server hold then? maximum? i always thought each server could hold tens of thousands or more.
Ŗůļę №¹: Never pass up a Ēredit. Ŗůļę №²: Never forget rule №¹

Renissara's Avatar


Renissara
12.13.2011 , 04:36 PM | #16
Quote: Originally Posted by Xenospheric View Post
Please realize that computers are not just magic and pixie dust
Bioware hasn't broken out the pixie dust yet?!?!?!?!

If they don't use their pixie dust by [arbitrary date] I'm cancelling my pre-order! Nothing but a unicorn will mollify me!

Xenospheric's Avatar


Xenospheric
12.13.2011 , 04:39 PM | #17
Quote: Originally Posted by PlayTank View Post
so how many people can an actual server hold then? maximum? i always thought each server could hold tens of thousands or more.
This I unfortunately do not know. It's all based on how their clusters are set up and that's out of my understanding. The amount of characters you can store is usually tremendous (I think wow has server pops of 30-35k), it's the amount that are on at the same time that's the issue, then you have to take bandwidth and other factors into account.

Quote: Originally Posted by Renissara View Post
Bioware hasn't broken out the pixie dust yet?!?!?!?!

If they don't use their pixie dust by [arbitrary date] I'm cancelling my pre-order! Nothing but a unicorn will mollify me!
Hahaha I love this

lokivoid's Avatar


lokivoid
12.13.2011 , 04:39 PM | #18
Quote: Originally Posted by Xenospheric View Post
I work as a System Administrator for a living and you guys need to understand that controlling and maintaining a multitude of clusters for that many users is astronomical.
Being Cisco certified by self i call BS, "Controlling and Maintaining" a system that is allready wired and put online is not a diffacult task. Booting the system or running backups is the only time consuming part (unless of course your netcoding is horrific or a rack slot suffers a critical hardware failure.)

LaughingTarget's Avatar


LaughingTarget
12.13.2011 , 04:42 PM | #19
Don't you know? The flooding in Thailand has caused a worldwide shortage of Pixie Dust (TM) as the lean process consolidated all production into a single plant. This explains the phased rollout.

Gamjee's Avatar


Gamjee
12.13.2011 , 04:45 PM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by lokivoid View Post
Being Cisco certified by self i call BS, "Controlling and Maintaining" a system that is allready wired and put online is not a diffacult task. Booting the system or running backups is the only time consuming part (unless of course your netcoding is horrific or a rack slot suffers a critical hardware failure.)
This. It's nearly 2012. People run systems with 550 million users and I'm supposed to be impressed by them running one with less then three tenths of a percent of that user base? In fact computers are so not magical that I disagree with the OP.