My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

That sounds possible. If anything I just hope it continues to grow! I've got all my friends to play so far, and they all love it.

It all depends on when Bioware/EA start offering free trials to the game.

If the price remains the same - new sales will have ground to the expected trickle... maybe 50k/month and I have no doubt they'll be losing customers faster than that.

In that scenario... there won't be a lot of people on the 30-day free period... so I'll say we're probably looking at something just a bit over 1 mil... 1.2... 1.1.

If they do start giving out free trials... or have free trial weekends and count those people as 'active subcribers' - I have no idea. It could reach the 2.5 mil you mention.

It all depends on when Bioware/EA start offering free trials to the game.

 

If the price remains the same - new sales will have ground to the expected trickle... maybe 50k/month and I have no doubt they'll be losing customers faster than that.

 

In that scenario... there won't be a lot of people on the 30-day free period... so I'll say we're probably looking at something just a bit over 1 mil... 1.2... 1.1.

 

If they do start giving out free trials... or have free trial weekends and count those people as 'active subcribers' - I have no idea. It could reach the 2.5 mil you mention.

My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

I just discovered the website Guild Wars 2 Guru and went through all the information the guys collected from Guild Wars 2 so far. In terms of features and how cool those features are, I think GW2 tops SW: TOR in every way. This game has potential, but damn GW2 will be launching with **** load of features when compared to what this game launched with. Kind of scary when compared to this game, feature wise. Bioware need to step it up. That's just what I think.

As more and more people hit endgame and find out that there is VERY LITTLE to do besides roll alts, people will start dropping.

Guaranteed...

750,000 would be a very high number...I doubt it will even be that much......And I am a fan of this game...

/shrug

No content, no subs.......

Bio failed on this

As more and more people hit endgame and find out that there is VERY LITTLE to do besides roll alts, people will start dropping.

 

 

Guaranteed...

 

 

750,000 would be a very high number...I doubt it will even be that much......And I am a fan of this game...

 

 

/shrug

 

 

No content, no subs.......

 

Bio failed on this

This guy RIGHT here. ^^^^^^^

As for the "numbers" that have come out, everyone should know that the Q3 release from EA counted those numbers as of DECEMBER 31st, 2011. This is what that means:

#1. This was when there was a free month.

#2. The good looking math is likely NOT so good looking now, a month and some change down the road from when that was reported.

CLIFFS: We'll have to see when they release another financial statement. My guess: It isn't going to be pretty and EAs stock is going to fall. Hard.

Good point, I actually included Oceanic players for my estimate.

You do realise that Oceanic (meaning Australia and New Zealand) wouldn't exceed 75k players, if that. I believe a figure of 20k would be an exaggeration. See how many servers are created for Oceania...I suspect it will be two. Those being PvP and PvE...the number of RPers down this end of the planet you wouldn't even bother counting.

I just discovered the website Guild Wars 2 Guru and went through all the information the guys collected from Guild Wars 2 so far. In terms of features and how cool those features are, I think GW2 tops SW: TOR in every way. This game has potential, but damn GW2 will be launching with **** load of features when compared to what this game launched with. Kind of scary when compared to this game, feature wise. Bioware need to step it up. That's just what I think.

When you look at the big picture its not really hard to top swtor. Not trashing the game i really enjoy it but the flaws are starting to become very apparent.

Pvp was designed by the same people that did warhammer. Now lets take a look at where warhammer is now. If you dont know what i mean just look down because its DEAD. WHY would you hire a team to design your pvp from a game that basically flopped? Who knows!

This game has TONS of potential but its gona be a long wait before it becomes what people really want it to be. A company's first mmo is either great or fail.

GW2 has a strong foundation to work with because they're in the business of making MMO's. I think it will suprass swtor in some areas but hard to say right now. Im honestly just getting worn out with swtor's pvp since thats the only reason i play this game. Mythic is bad, real bad and it should be against the law to have them design pvp for any developer in the future.

well, AFTER Aus, NZ, and Asia....

2 million.

This is my complete and uneducated guess.

EASY fanbois...im an EA stock holder i want this game to succeed.

well, AFTER Aus, NZ, and Asia....

 

2 million.

 

This is my complete and uneducated guess.

 

EASY fanbois...im an EA stock holder i want this game to succeed.

Sell your stock if you want to keep your house in a few months.

Sell your stock if you want to keep your house in a few months.

The last you should be giving is stock advice when you don't even understand the report released this week as evidenced by your earlier post in this thread.

The 1.7m subscribers is current, not as of 12/31.

Sell your stock if you want to keep your house in a few months.

Is that non-constructive rhetoric really necessary?

Anyway I'm thinking around 2.5 million in three months...and the main reason I'm thinking this is one of the devs was talking earlier on his Google + site about the hassles of adding new blades to servers during uptime.....that usually doesn't happen unless they are anticipating or experiencing growth.

The thing is end game hounds will leave...this simply isn't a stand around in a city showing off while waiting for your dungeon to pop kinda game and I doubt it ever will be; but the game is attracting a giant casual base.....in six months we will see a very different demographic and I think continued growth until about autumn when it should level out to I say around 3 to 3.5 million which isn't earth shattering but it's respectable.

Hardcore players will look at TOR shake their heads and not be able to fathom why people are still playing...but play they will. TOR will end up with a very loyal very tenacious fan base, it will get the same "It's not a real MMO" slams that Guild Wars endured and will enjoy the same type of popularity and all the doomsaying in the world won't change that.

Significantly less no matter how good the comming updates are

MMO hoppers made up a huge portion of the launch playerbase along with a bunch of already unhappy SWG veterans that likely won't stick around for this game

Is that non-constructive rhetoric really necessary?

 

Anyway I'm thinking around 2.5 million in three months...and the main reason I'm thinking this is one of the devs was talking earlier on his Google + site about the hassles of adding new blades to servers during uptime.....that usually doesn't happen unless they are anticipating or experiencing growth.

 

The thing is end game hounds will leave...this simply isn't a stand around in a city showing off while waiting for your dungeon to pop kinda game and I doubt it ever will be; but the game is attracting a giant casual base.....in six months we will see a very different demographic and I think continued growth until about autumn when it should level out to I say around 3 to 3.5 million which isn't earth shattering but it's respectable.

 

Hardcore players will look at TOR shake their heads and not be able to fathom why people are still playing...but play they will. TOR will end up with a very loyal very tenacious fan base and all the doomsaying in the world won't change that.

Oh no, you're absolutely wrong. 3.5 Million is indeed Earth shattering. Beyond Earth Shattering. On it's way to "What?" status. 1.7 Million - is a Big deal. HUGE deal. WoW is a freakish anomaly as far as Subs go.

EQ1 Expected 40k - got 400k GIGANTIC DEAL.

EQ2 expected 500k - Got 750k. See above.

WoW = TWELVE MILLION TOTAL = "Lolwut how'd that happen."

The casual crowd fuels WoW, the Casual crowd will Fuel SWTOR. You guys are good.

Only issue is, this game cost oodles and oodles and tons and tons more than every other mmo.

GW2 has a strong foundation to work with because they're in the business of making MMO's. I think it will suprass swtor in some areas but hard to say right now. Im honestly just getting worn out with swtor's pvp since thats the only reason i play this game. Mythic is bad, real bad and it should be against the law to have them design pvp for any developer in the future.

No, they really aren't. GW1 wasn't an MMO by standard definitions, they never intended it to be. It was an idea for a game that was different than anything on the market and it worked.

Guild Wars 2 is their new idea, for a new game, that's different than anything on the market and happens to feature a persistent world, which classifies it as an MMO. They're pushing the bar as far as mechanics go, and as far as what people think of how you play an "MMO". It's super exciting to think that if it works, we could take another big step forward in the genre.

They appear to have the marketing budget to continue attracting new players. The key will be retention, as is usual for MMO's. If their team is as big as advertised, they should be able to fix issues and produce new content at a fairly rapid clip.

The proof is in the patching. I'm relatively optimistic about this game's future.

They appear to have the marketing budget to continue attracting new players. The key will be retention, as is usual for MMO's. If their team is as big as advertised, they should be able to fix issues and produce new content at a fairly rapid clip.

 

The proof is in the patching. I'm relatively optimistic about this game's future.

We'd be remiss to say that a lot didn't depend on the next big Patch for a lot of players. 1.1 to now has been some pretty big fiasco's. If 1.2 can launch smoothly and really improve things I think you guys will see a lot of happy faces, and not so much angry faces. However, it it's a bomb like Ilum? Goodluck.

To quote a great man, if 1.2 doesn't go well:

"There will be blood in the water, and the Shark's will come."

Significantly less no matter how good the comming updates are

 

MMO hoppers made up a huge portion of the launch playerbase along with a bunch of already unhappy SWG veterans that likely won't stick around for this game

Very few SWG fans cam here to begin with most of the are playing the EMU and are quite happy with that, The biggest demographic SWTOR has is disenchanted casual players from WoW who are sick of Raid or Die followed by KOTOR CRPG fans. What people fail to understand is the amount of current subscribers who are not happy is small.

I get that many think that with all the crying on the forums that isn't true; but if you take the most viewed thread and you divide by the number of subscribers you would see that in the grand scheme of things hardly anyone bothers with the forums. The complaints are relativity small the buzz for this game is still huge; that doesn't translate to the mass exodus that the hate machine has been waiting for, they were wrong when they predicted 3/4 sub loss at the first month they are wrong now.

But time will tell who is right.

Very few SWG fans cam here to begin with most of the are playing the EMU and are quite happy with that, The biggest demographic SWTOR has is disenchanted casual players from WoW who are sick of Raid or Die followed by KOTOR CRPG fans. What people fail to understand is the amount of current subscribers who are not happy is small.

 

I get that many think that with all the crying on the forums that isn't true; but if you take the most viewed thread and you divide by the number of subscribers you would see that in the grand scheme of things hardly anyone bothers with the forums. The complaints are relativity small the buzz for this game is still huge; that doesn't translate to the mass exodus that the hate machine has been waiting for, they were wrong when they predicted 3/4 sub loss at the first month they are wrong now.

 

But time will tell who is right.

One of the threads on the front page has almost 12000 unique views. More people browse the forums than people give credit. Some have had upward of 25k. That's not a small number, considering many people have friends, who have friends, who will tell friends, and if that friend leaves, their friend may leave, so on so forth. One must be aware of a snowball effect.

Wiser to just be cautious than dismissive.

Im not calling for the death of TOR but seems to me the server pops dropping, not growing during prime time from what Ive seen!

Ive seen 1 heavy server in the last 3 weeks and I routinely log in around 7 pm est every day!

So Im going to guess at the end of 3 months they will be around 1.1-1.3 million subscribers.

Which is still reasonable to be honest.

Typically MMORPGs that release strong have a drop for the following 6-9 months and then once the short term players weeded out they grow or fail after that on word of mouth.

Even the much vaulted WOW lost subs for the first 9 months after release before turning it around and growing their playerbase (and they had the ultra blind battlenet fanbois to prop them up with).

Long as TOR doesnt lose more then 50% of its first 2 month subs (pre launch and 1 st 1.5 month sales) its doing ok.

If it starts dropping 70%-80% of its subs by end of 3rd month like SWG did, then its in trouble.

TOR long term success will live and die on its updates and first expansion.

Fun game but simply to easy and quick to hold initial player sales much past the 6 month mark at the latest.

The updates and promise of first expansion is going to have to bring in the long term sales as TOR was designed (wrongly IMO) as a short term game.

But Im sure the haters will say Im wrong and predict much harsher failure and the fanbois will claim Im wrong and say TOR is greatest thing since slice bread. That seems to be the trend on these forums.

It all depends on when Bioware/EA start offering free trials to the game.

 

PS: If EA/Bioware starts offering free trials with in the 3 month period (really with in the 24 month period), expect RIFT type results.

Free trials 3 months after release are a death sentance to a MMORPG and send a clear message that this game can not hold its players long term.

May as well offer up Lifetime subs while they at it.

As for the "numbers" that have come out, everyone should know that the Q3 release from EA counted those numbers as of DECEMBER 31st, 2011. This is what that means:

 

#1. This was when there was a free month.

 

#2. The good looking math is likely NOT so good looking now, a month and some change down the road from when that was reported.

Seriously? After the literally dozens of posts explaining this and giving proof with the q&a session after the earnings call, there are still people that perpetuate this bs?

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

Read!

Very few SWG fans cam here to begin with most of the are playing the EMU and are quite happy with that, The biggest demographic SWTOR has is disenchanted casual players from WoW who are sick of Raid or Die followed by KOTOR CRPG fans. What people fail to understand is the amount of current subscribers who are not happy is small.

 

I get that many think that with all the crying on the forums that isn't true; but if you take the most viewed thread and you divide by the number of subscribers you would see that in the grand scheme of things hardly anyone bothers with the forums. The complaints are relativity small the buzz for this game is still huge; that doesn't translate to the mass exodus that the hate machine has been waiting for, they were wrong when they predicted 3/4 sub loss at the first month they are wrong now.

 

But time will tell who is right.

Actually, alot of us SWG fans are already here. Most of us left SWG cause of the mismanagement, not cause we hated SW. This is a second chance for us to live in the galaxy we always loved. SWG was an awesome game for casual players, so is SWTOR.

Yes, all the others from KOTOR, Anti-WOW and such are here as well.

Don't think we SWG old timers simply died off.