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Moddable Shell Drops at 306

TerraStomper's Avatar

09.15.2019 , 12:39 PM | #1
Moddable shells that drop vary a great deal in terms of the quality and type of mods they contain. Moddable shells are also one of the few places we can find non "R-" affixed mods, such as the Superior Versatile Armoring 80, Superior Lethal Mod 80, or the Superior Adept Enhancement 80. Takanna offers only "R-" affixed mods, unless they happen to drop inside a moddable piece of gear, then they can be any of the variants.

I've been testing drops with a 306 Merc Bodyguard. Other classes may have a different experience. For this look, I am ignoring Amplifiers. They add yet another dimension to the complexity of 6.0 gearing, plus some of them are broken, and do not appear on all mods or shells. I wonder how the developers think all these dimensions to gearing can balance out?

Moddable Gear Variation
  • When a moddable shell drops, it will roll according to class. Its mods however roll independent of discipline for main hands and off hands. Main and off hand blasters with tank stats or accuracy are frequent. This may be a bug.
  • When a set shell drops, it can roll independent of class or discipline. The mods inside however did follow class and discipline. This Bodyguard Merc has seen 4 set shell drops, all with healer stats. One was general. The other three for the juggernaut/guardian. This might be another bug.
  • (A) The armoring/barrel/hilt slot can roll Resistive or Versatile, each with 21 versions, 42 total. DPS/Healer gear can roll Resistive. Tank gear can roll Versatile. This might be another bug.
  • (M) The mod slot can roll Warding or Lethal, each with three types (unlettered, A, or B), each type with 21 versions, 126 total.
  • (E) The enhancement slot can roll any of 15 types (6 for tanks and 9 for DPS/heals), each with 21 versions. Warding mods pair with tanking enhancements while Lethal pairs with DPS and healer enhancements. 315 total.
  • (R) The rank of the armoring, mod, or enhancement can be anywhere from 270 to 306. At 306, ranks 270-282 drop very rarely, 284-296 are infrequent, and 298-306 are more frequent. 19 variations total.

Total Upper Bound Variations (head/chest/gloves/leg/boots): (A * M * E * R^3)
Tank: 42 * 63 * 6 * 19^3 = 15,876 * 6959 = 110,481,084
DPS/Healer: 42 * 63 * 9 * 19^3 = 23,814 * 6959 = 165,721,626

Total Upper Bound Variations (belt/bracer): (A * M * R^2)
Tank/DPS/Healer: 42 * 63 * 19^2 = 2646 * 361 = 955,206

Total Upper Bound Variations (blasters): (A * M * E * R^3)
Tank/DPS/Healer: 42 * 63 * 9 * 19^3 + 42 * 63 * 6 * 19^3 = 15 * 42 * 63 * 19^3 = 272,233,710

So, if a Bodyguard Merc is looking for a perfect moddable piece of gear, the chance is bounded to be no worse than one in a million for a belt or bracer, not worse than 166 million for armors, and not worse than one in 273 million for a weapon, rolling the best 306 mods. It is far more likely that any given drop will contain one, maybe two desired mods that can be ripped out and places in another moddable shell. I say bounded because the above assume the chances are equal for each mod's rank included in the drop. 298-306 are definitely more frequent, but not enough have dropped for me to tell what their chances are to make a better estimate. Chances may be on a descending curve from 306 to 270.

With these chances, most players will never be able to min/max even one character using gear drops, let alone before the NEXT expansion after 6.0. We're more likely to be struck by lightning. Or win the lottery.

We need to be able to buy, craft, or find the best mods. Buying them has been promised. Crafting shows promise, but is currently locked behind conquest and extremely high material requirements. Renown crates do drop loose mods. For me, they've all been 306 with no "R-" affix variants, which is encouraging, but they've also been coming too slowly or rely on with any certainty. Individual mod drops off mobs and bosses have been too infrequent to rely on and when they do drop, they like most everything else -- mostly junk.