The fixed 10-20% chance for a schematic is pretty obnoxious when you go 10-20 times in a row without a schematic for one item. It doesn't really make sense that there is no improvement after all the repetition.

 

I propose that each deconstruction should improve your chance for a schematic by 5%. After 6-8 tries you should have even odds, and after 15 misses - should you be that unlucky - at least the desired outcome is within sight.

This is a pretty good idea. Nice one OP

Yeah, a streakbreaker would be nice but needing to store this information in addition to all the other massive amounts of information per character they need to store...

I think 5% per RE attempt is excessive but something sort of increment would be appreciated. And it wouldn't necessarily require a lot of additional information to be stored: potentially just two values could be sufficient as has been suggested previously.

The math is simple 20% of success is an 80% chance of failure, 10% chance success is a 90% chance of failure.

 

You have to fail seven times in a row before the probability starts to tip in your favor (20% success 20.9% chance of seven failures in a row). So failure 10 times in a row on a 20% RE chance is not as bad as you think.

 

On a 10% RE you have to fail 15 times before the probability starts to tip in your favor. (10% success 20.6% chance of 15 failures in a row) So failure 20 times in a row on a 10% RE chance is not as bad as you think.

 

With this in mind, an increase in success chance is not warranted. But I will add one more tidbit, just because YOU have had a few bad streaks does not mean the system is broken. BioWare keeps stats on every aspect of the game. They have information regarding hundreds of thousands if not millions of RE attempts and the results from them. And, while I do not have that information, I would guess that in the overall grand scheme the percentages are averaging out.

No one ever said that it was broken. (at least in this thread). I am currently on RE number 25 without a crit and I would love some kind of streakbreaker to prevent stuff like this from happening.

I think the system is fine the way it is. It keeps the purples rare. 5% buff per failure is way too high.

No one ever said that it was broken. (at least in this thread). I am currently on RE number 25 without a crit and I would love some kind of streakbreaker to prevent stuff like this from happening.

 

Why should there be a mechanic to stop streaks?

 

Yes, it is very upsetting for the individual to go through a bad streak. Believe me, I know, I have gone as many as thirty without a RE schematic.

 

However while you (or I or anyone else) are on that bad streak there are hundreds of thousands of players who are hitting the average and a small number getting lucky and getting schematics early; it all balances out over time and across all crafting characters. That's what is known as the bell-curve.

 

My point still stands, just because you are having a bad luck streak does not mean the system needs modification.

Why should there be a mechanic to stop streaks?

 

Yes, it is very upsetting for the individual to go through a bad streak. Believe me, I know, I have gone as many as thirty without a RE schematic.

 

However while you (or I or anyone else) are on that bad streak there are hundreds of thousands of players who are hitting the average and a small number getting lucky and getting schematics early; it all balances out over time and across all crafting characters. That's what is known as the bell-curve.

 

My point still stands, just because you are having a bad luck streak does not mean the system needs modification.

 

Why not a change ?

That's exactly what they did with the augment slots. It used to be a rare thing. Now if you don't get the slot the by luck, you get one eventually. Did the market crash ? Were crafters put out of bussiness ? Not a all. That change was beneficial for everybody, crafters and consumers.

I could see the reasoning behind this suggestion, however with as many times as I have had a bad RE streak there have been as many times that I have received a schematic on the first or second attempt.

I think some items might be bugged, i do alot of reverse engineering and am usualy happy with the amount needed but one particular earpiece that said 10% i gave up on after making 39 items,

 

Ive had a few other ones that have gone over 20 times but i cant remember exact numbers. 39 really stuck in my head though...

Why not a change ?

That's exactly what they did with the augment slots. It used to be a rare thing. Now if you don't get the slot the by luck, you get one eventually. Did the market crash ? Were crafters put out of bussiness ? Not a all. That change was beneficial for everybody, crafters and consumers.

 

Because it is unnecessary - if it ain't broke don't fix it.

 

Augments are a bad example. In that case there was a paradigm shift from focusing on crafting gear with augments to crafting the kits to add augments to gear. Furthermore, there was a marked jump in demand for augments to fill those slots.

 

By implementing what the OP (and many others) propose, it will increase the chance of eventually getting every schematic available. this will create a double whammy on crafted item value. First, with more players having the schematics they actually want they are less likely to buy that gear from someone else. Second, with enough effort every player can get every schematic that means more supply. And without a corresponding increase in demand, value decreases. Yes, I know that there are a lot of players who only want the schematics for their own use, but that still takes away from them buying from someone else.

I'd vote for a mercy rule.

 

Assuming 20% success per RE, the probability of someone failing a RE 30 times in a row is just approaching 99.9% (99.8762% actually). Basically, you have to RE 30 items to essentially have a "GAURANTEE" of success and for every 1000 people that have succeeded in that, there are still 1 or 2 people who have failed every time.

 

I can totally see that being quite frustrating and actually not fun at all for a minority of people.

 

Here's the simple theory:

p = probability of RE'ing success per attempt

p = 0.2 = 20%

q = probability of RE'ing failure per attempt

q = 1 - p = 1-0.2 = 0.8 = 80 %

N = number of attemps

Q = probability of failing N times in a row

Q = q^N

P = probability of not failing N times in a row = probability of succeeding at LEAST once

P = 1 - Q = 1 - q^N

 

If you don't follow the math here are some example numbers:

 

20% success per attempt table (N attempts, Probability of at LEAST 1 success)

1, 20%

2, 36%

3, 48.8%

4, 59.0%

5, 67.2%

6, 73.8%

7, 79.0%

8, 82.2%

9, 86.6%

10, 89.3%

15, 96.5%

20, 98.8%

25, 99.6%

30, 99.9%

 

10% success per attempt table (N attempts, Probability of at LEAST 1 success)

1, 10%

2, 19%

3, 27.1%

4, 34.4%

5, 41.0%

6, 46.9%

7, 52.2%

8, 56.9%

9, 61.3%

10, 65.1%

15, 79.4%

20, 87.8%

25, 92.8%

30, 95.8%

 

Moral Of The Story = Mercy Rule For The Win!

 

I would imagine a mercy rule might be non-trivial to code though and don't really expect a change so:

 

Alternate Moral Of The Story = Math Can Be Interesting!

 

Alternate Moral Of The Story #2 = If You Want To Preview The Cartel Store, It Takes A While To Download All The PTS Files LOL!

Edited October 24, 2012 by obi-wan-kaneobi

That math is nice except it's random and that means it's random every single time you make an attempt. That's why it's possible to have really long losing streaks. (or get it on the first try for that matter) Like rolling a 100 sided dice. Edited October 24, 2012 by MorgonKara

That math is nice except it's random and that means it's random every single time you make an attempt. That's why it's possible to have really long losing streaks. (or get it on the first try for that matter) Like rolling a 100 sided dice.

 

yes each go is a new 20% chance but as a set of 30 or 40, its quite ujlikely not to get one.

 

its a 50% chance to flip a coin head or tails, you have a 50 50 chance on each flip, but its extremely unlikely to flip 100 heads in a row. right ?

Because it is unnecessary - if it ain't broke don't fix it.

 

This wouldn't be a fix. It would be an improvement. Things can be always improved.

 

Augments are a bad example. In that case there was a paradigm shift from focusing on crafting gear with augments to crafting the kits to add augments to gear. Furthermore, there was a marked jump in demand for augments to fill those slots.

 

What matters is that augment slots aren't "rare" anymore, they aren't ruled by the RNG God. That change was positive for everybody. It was good for crafters, good for consumers, good for the economy. Still is.

 

By implementing what the OP (and many others) propose, it will increase the chance of eventually getting every schematic available. this will create a double whammy on crafted item value. First, with more players having the schematics they actually want they are less likely to buy that gear from someone else. Second, with enough effort every player can get every schematic that means more supply. And without a corresponding increase in demand, value decreases. Yes, I know that there are a lot of players who only want the schematics for their own use, but that still takes away from them buying from someone else.

 

First, I think you're grossly underestimating the amount of schematics possible out there.

 

Second, many try to be self-suficient with crafts because the items they want/need are either non-existant or the few that do exist are ridiculously overpriced. How many will pay 80k for a lvl 23 offhand, that's good for like a few hours ?

 

If for leveling, planet commendations are a better option in terms of cost-benefit than crafts, then certainly there is room for improvement. I think if schematics were more easy to obtain, it'd would make the economy more active. Players would craft more, players would buy more.

Edited October 24, 2012 by wainot-keel

This is not happens. Why?

Cuz Bio sell us Guaranteed RE in 1.6, 1.7 or whatever... - only in F2P store of course!

Edited October 24, 2012 by Glower

@obi-wan-kaneobi

 

Assuming for a moment that a system of chance improvement is put in place, I do not see it starting right away (on the first attempt). The fact of the matter is that for 20% RE, the odds of success are against you until after the seventh attempt (the probability of seven failures in a row is: 80%^7=20.97%). basically someone who gets a schematic before the eighth attempt is lucky (that person beat the odds). Therefore any "assistance" through an increase in the percentage chance of success should only happen after the seventh attempt for 20% RE and after the 21st on 10% RE (the probability of 21 failures in a row is: 90%^21=10.94%)

 

I understand the frustration of a bad streak, I have gone 30 without a schematic. But the odds of success are supposed to be against you to start and only after a fixed number of attempts should the odds tip in your favor.