Anniepants Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 4/52 with a current 0/29 streak.. just wondering if any math whiz out there can tell me what the odds of going 0 for 29 in a row with a supposed 25% chance per bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makar Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's not 25% of the time you'll get a token, it's each time you open a bag there's a 25% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthSunshine Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Well the probability of not getting it Ina bag is 3/4. 3/4 ten times is 59049/1048576...which is 5%. The chance of going ten straight wothout getting a comm is 5% or 1 in 20... Of course if you go twenty times without a comm that's 0.3% roughly 1 in 334. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthSunshine Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 If you open that 30th bag without a comm then it's 1 in 10000 (I may be wrong, my calculator crapped the bed when I tried this number). Of course the odds of you exaggerating your numbers is 1 in 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PalawaJoko Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I've also opened plenty of them without a single token I guess it's bad luck but for me 25% seems rather high chance so it's strange not getting at least one token. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurfer Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 (edited) Yeah dude in my guild was pretty pissed off since he hasn't gotten a BM comm in over 12 bags. Seems like a crappy system to me. All it does is piss players off, they practically burn themselves out to get Battlemaster and this usually pushes them over the edge. We are literally pleading with our friends not to grind BM, because too many people are quitting over it. Edited February 22, 2012 by Kurfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PalawaJoko Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah dude in my guild was pretty pissed off since he hasn't gotten a BM comm in over 12 bags. Seems like a crappy system to me. All it does is piss players off, they practically burn themselves out to get Battlemaster and this usually pushes them over the edge. We are literally pleading with our friends not to grind BM, because too many people are quitting over it. Yeah stay out of the rumble and go get Rakatas from raids. It's also a valid set in PvP and much more fun to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceUpercutt Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 0/53, i stopped pvping, hopefully when 1.2 comes out i will be able to get them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doormad Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Without overacting, I opened at least 30 -35 bags (I stopped counting @ 25 bags and that was last week) and havent gotten any token so far. 25% ? Sorry, I don´t buy it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iimagiicii Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 the odds are 1/4 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makar Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 the odds are 1/4 .... Captain Obvious is here to help anyone who doesn't know what percents are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeH-DeVa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's not a 25% chance it's a 25% chance per bag. That's a complete difference. Each individual roll is 25% which is much less than 25% for all the bags. You have a 75% chance every single time to lose. Which means you could easily go 100 without a token because the odds are horribly against you. The thing is this is top tier PvP gear...it's not suppose to be easy to obtain. Why cry non-stop about it? Especially since the difference between champion and BM is in the single digits. Stats don't even make a noticeable difference...get over it...srsly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceUpercutt Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 the odds are 1/4 .... this is for you http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/youare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
besbin Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 0/53, i stopped pvping, hopefully when 1.2 comes out i will be able to get them Sorry, I don't believe you. Yeah you can go on bad runs, as I did on champion bags but 0/53? Personally I am 4/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceUpercutt Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's not a 25% chance it's a 25% chance per bag. That's a complete difference. Each individual roll is 25% which is much less than 25% for all the bags. You have a 75% chance every single time to lose. Which means you could easily go 100 without a token because the odds are horribly against you. The thing is this is top tier PvP gear...it's not suppose to be easy to obtain. Why cry non-stop about it? Especially since the difference between champion and BM is in the single digits. Stats don't even make a noticeable difference...get over it...srsly probably because going 3 weeks without making any progress is a horrible design Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceUpercutt Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 (edited) Sorry, I don't believe you. Yeah you can go on bad runs, as I did on champion bags but 0/53? Personally I am 4/7. well over 3 weeks now without a single one, i made numerous tickets but all i get is "we are investigating the issue" its possible im just unlucky, but i think odds are that its bugged for me if any dev's read this please go look at the logs for my account if you can, or even just take it over and test it Edited February 22, 2012 by LanceUpercutt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEvilreaper Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 4/52 with a current 0/29 streak.. just wondering if any math whiz out there can tell me what the odds of going 0 for 29 in a row with a supposed 25% chance per bag. First 5 bags I just opened today and have gotten 2 Comms already. System must work just really really random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthSunshine Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's not a 25% chance it's a 25% chance per bag. That's a complete difference. Each individual roll is 25% which is much less than 25% for all the bags. You have a 75% chance every single time to lose. Which means you could easily go 100 without a token because the odds are horribly against you. The thing is this is top tier PvP gear...it's not suppose to be easy to obtain. Why cry non-stop about it? Especially since the difference between champion and BM is in the single digits. Stats don't even make a noticeable difference...get over it...srsly That not how odds work. If you flip a coin it's 1/2, .5 or 50%. If you want to know what the odds are of getting heads twice in a row it not 1/2 it's 1/4 .25 or 25%. 1/2 multiplied by 1/2. Now take that same coin and flip it ten times...the odds of getting heads every time is 1/1024 or 0.09%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurfer Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah stay out of the rumble and go get Rakatas from raids. It's also a valid set in PvP and much more fun to get I would tend to agree, I will never equip full champion...too much goodness from my 2 piece rakata bonus and not to mention tons more endurance. People tend to ignore pure dps classes rolling with 18k hp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makar Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 (edited) That not how odds work. If you flip a coin it's 1/2, .5 or 50%. If you want to know what the odds are of getting heads twice in a row it not 1/2 it's 1/4 .25 or 25%. 1/2 multiplied by 1/2. Now take that same coin and flip it ten times...the odds of getting heads every time is 1/1024 or 0.09%. You're confusing odds of single chance, with odds of a set. Each coin flip is 50%, each bag open is 25%... Edited February 22, 2012 by Makar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurfer Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Also why trust anything a pvp dev for this game says about pvp? They are the trash of the industry and Bioware grabbed them off the unemployment line when they turned warhammer into late stage abortion. These guys are clowns, we should be lucky pvp even works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthSunshine Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 So if you want to know what the odds of not getting a comm in 10 bags it's not 3/4. It 3/4 time 3/4 times 3/4 times 3/4 etc...or 3/4 to the 10th power or .75^10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xBlackReignx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I am currently 0 for 17 bags. That's sadly not a exaggeration. Previous posts from the devs state they have confirmed the drop rate, but I either have the worst possible luck, or there is a problem. While I understand the gear should be hard to get (I'm fine with that), I think they should just make the BM gear super expensive with commendations and increase the amount dropped from the bags (maybe 5 at a time) so that I can at least feel like I am progressing. Make each item 150 comms for all I care, but adjust it somehow so that the feeling of defeat received each time you open a bag goes away. It is literally driving players away from the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceUpercutt Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 You're confusing odds of single chance, with odds of a set. Each coin flip is 50%, each bag open is 25%... ???? read what he said again, you are confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallaas Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I am exactly 0-21 so I don't wanna hear any whining from anyone who has got a token. Thats 252 wz matches played without a single god damn token. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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