I just RE'd 15 or so items, and not one discovery. Am I just having a very bad run of luck, or is it broken?

I just RE'd 15 or so items, and not one discovery. Am I just having a very bad run of luck, or is it broken?

 

RNG is overworked doing Cartel Packs and is paying less attention to RE attempts right now.

 

But seriously, it's probably just a bad run of luck.

even before 1.5 i had some bad luck on a 20% chance, i did 37 RE's before a hit, all it is, is bad luck.

it aint broke, just bad luck

Hard to say without knowing what you are attempting to RE.

 

IIRC for a 10% success item, the odds of then next attempt being the first in 22 failures is almost exactly the same as the odds of the next attempt being a success. (9.85% vs 10%)

 

So a string of 15 failures wouldn't even be considered unlucky. Only 15 failures before success would probably be on the lucky side.

 

That being said, if it's a 20% success item, then the odds of gettng 15 failures in a row would only be 3.5%

 

So a bit on the unlucky side, but not terribly so. Considering how many items you (and everybody else) is going to be RE'ing, it's going to go on a 15 failure streak a WHOLE lot of time.

what some people think is the 20% chance means if they craft 5 items that they will get that crit they are after. Its always 20% or 10% each time you RE.

Yeah, figured it was luck, but it's been broken before so I thought I'd check before I blew another stack of equipment. Should've known that the RNG hated me from my stack of Ubrikki Speeders from the cartel store. I will be starting a used-speeder lot on Tatooine of my very own soon.

Come back and ask this question again when you've done 1,500 greens without a single blue pattern.

it's working, got few schematics since yesterday.

It is broken yes, but not for that reason, those recipes disappear after relog.

It is broken yes, but not for that reason, those recipes disappear after relog.

 

^ This

 

Happened to me today. I lost 3 recipes which I had learned earlier in the day by reverse engineering.

i think, it's not broken, but the tooltip is wrong^^

it's not a 20% chance, it's more like being about 5% chance to get better blueprints

 

i have often rows with 20 or more items without having success

 

W

^ This

 

Happened to me today. I lost 3 recipes which I had learned earlier in the day by reverse engineering.

 

ugh... please no....

yesterday i finally got the veracity prefix for an implant that just wouldn't pop up. i don't even remember how many tries it took. i even crafted a couple of them for selling. if today i log in an the recipe is gone, i'll be really mad

Well, If it has not changed since launch, then my luck sure has changed.

 

I started a new character on a new server (shadowlands) and picked cybernetics and the two gathering skills for it (scavenging and underworld trading). I crafted 60 green items (armouring 2's and mod 2's) and Reverse engeneered all of them. I ended up with 5 blues (8.33 % success overall). On other characters on other servers I have been geting about the same results lately with way less than 5% (overall) on the 10% items. Back a few months ago, My success rate was such that I never bothered to check it over a long period (I was prettty happy with it). However, I know there were times when I got less than the tooltip % and times when I got more, and it did not seem to matter if i was getting blues or purples. I really wasn't frustrated or disappointed.

 

Lately however, it seems to take forever to get a successful re-engineer. I realize that the % of success (20 or 10) doesn't change after I RE 5 or 10 items, but the law of averages should come out to somewhere near those percentages over time. It took me 55 number 2 skill Mods to get a blue schematic. I am either unlucky louie, or the equation for rolling the success/fail has been modified.

 

I must have been lucky louie before. sometimes getting 3 successes in a row and never having to do 50 items for success.

 

I scratch my head.

Come back and ask this question again when you've done 1,500 greens without a single blue pattern.

 

I think I would give up long before that. That would make the new schematic cost millions (probably ... just guessing)

Well, If it has not changed since launch, then my luck sure has changed.

 

I started a new character on a new server (shadowlands) and picked cybernetics and the two gathering skills for it (scavenging and underworld trading). I crafted 60 green items (armouring 2's and mod 2's) and Reverse engeneered all of them. I ended up with 5 blues (8.33 % success overall). On other characters on other servers I have been geting about the same results lately with way less than 5% (overall) on the 10% items. Back a few months ago, My success rate was such that I never bothered to check it over a long period (I was prettty happy with it). However, I know there were times when I got less than the tooltip % and times when I got more, and it did not seem to matter if i was getting blues or purples. I really wasn't frustrated or disappointed.

 

Lately however, it seems to take forever to get a successful re-engineer. I realize that the % of success (20 or 10) doesn't change after I RE 5 or 10 items, but the law of averages should come out to somewhere near those percentages over time. It took me 55 number 2 skill Mods to get a blue schematic. I am either unlucky louie, or the equation for rolling the success/fail has been modified.

 

I must have been lucky louie before. sometimes getting 3 successes in a row and never having to do 50 items for success.

 

I scratch my head.

 

Those laws of averages you mention DO work out when you consider the millions of REs across all servers and all characters. Even if you personally do 1000 REs that is STILL a small sample size.

 

And based on your anecdote, statistically you were lucky early and effectively your luck ran out. 'nuff said.

Easy to fix really, every time you RE something the scroll bar should tell you what roll number you got and if that number is in the 20% mark then you got the RE otherwise is bad luck

 

That way people will just stop complaining and easilly read the text